FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 2000 CHAD 9

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CHAD

Area:
1 259 000 sq.km
Climate:
From north to south: arid, semi-arid and tropical wet-dry; rainy season: May-Oct.
Population:
7.4 million (2000 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$200 (1999)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Low-income food-deficit country; land-locked Sahelian country.
Logistics:
Roads inadequate during rainy season
Major foodcrops:
Millet and sorghum, roots and tubers, tree nuts
Marketing year:
November/October; Lean season: August-September
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
52 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


Following generally above-average rains in July, precipitation decreased significantly in the Sahelian zone in August, improved in early September, except in the east of the Sahelian zone, and remained widespread but low during the second dekad, moving southwards during the third dekad and in early October. In the Sahelian zone, millet and sorghum suffered water stress and harvest prospects are not favourable. Pastures are starting to dry up in the Sahelian zone. Grasshopper attacks have been reported in several regions. Grain eating birds caused some damage to millet and maize in Gu�ra prefecture. No Desert Locust activity is reported, while some Migratory Locusts have been reported in Ati area along the Batha river.

A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in late October estimated the 2000 cereal production at 890 000 tonnes, which is 28 percent below 1999 record level and 17 percent below the last five years average. Following this reduced harvest, the food supply situation is likely to tighten, notably in the deficit zones of Batha, Biltine, northern Gu�ra, Kanem, Lac, north eastern Chari Baguirmi and northern Ouadda�. Prices of cereals started to increase significantly on local markets. Following above-average harvests in 1998 and 1999, farmers were able to replenish their stocks and transfers from surplus to deficit areas are possible. The national security stock remains at a very low level of 1 350 tonnes (plus 1 600 tonnes to be purchased after harvest), which is limiting possible government interventions.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2000/01 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


  Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Previous five years average production 3 111 957 1 071
Previous five years average imports 56 9 8 73
2000/01 Domestic Availability 10 67 978 1 055
2000 Production (rice in paddy terms) 3 69 818 890
2000 Production (rice in milled terms) 3 47 818 868
Possible stock drawdown 7 20 160 187
2000/01 Utilization 70 77 993 1 140
Food Use 69 69 833 970
of which: local purchase requirement - - 5 5
Non-food use 1 8 154 163
Exports or Re-exports - - 7 7
Possible stock build up - - - -
2000/01 Import Requirement 60 10 15 85
Anticipated commercial imports 52 8 10 70
Food aid needs 8 2 5 15
Current Aid Position        
Food aid pledges - - - -
of which: Delivered - - - -
Donor-financed purchases - - - -
of which: for local use - - - -
for export - - - -
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year) 9 9 110 128
Indexes        
2000 production as % of average:       83
2000/01 import requirement as % of average:       116

FAO/GIEWS - December 2000

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