FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report Part III, No.2, August 2001 ETHIOPIA 17

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ETHIOPIA

Area:
976 680 sq.km
Climate:
Northern coastal area and lowlands in south and east are semi-arid to arid; rest of country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter.
Population:
65.0 million (2001 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$100 (1999)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics:
Land-locked country, roads inadequate
Major foodcrops:
Maize, teff, barley, sorghum, wheat, pulses, enset (false banana)
Marketing year:
January/December; Lean season: August-November
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
69 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Despite a late start, performance of the "belg" season rainfall is near normal. The "belg" crop accounts for some 7 to 10 percent of the aggregate cereal production of the country, but it is important in several areas, where it provides the bulk of the annual food supplies. Overall prospects for the harvest are favourable and output is anticipated to recover substantially from last year's poor "belg" crop. However, an army-worm outbreak recently reported in eastern parts of the country and bird infestations in the south may impact negatively on the outcome of the season.

In the pastoral areas, the current main season rainfall was late by about a month and ended early. Poor rainfall in parts of Gode, Liban, Werder and Afder Zones, sites of last year's severe food shortages, are particularly worrying. Recent nutritional surveys have shown high levels of global acute malnutrition, indicating continuing food shortages.

As a result of last year's bumper "meher" cereal and pulse crop, the overall food supply situation in the country is stable. However, the sharp decline in grain prices in main producing areas has severely affected household income in rural areas and may negatively impact on farmers' production decisions in the main "meher" season, which has just started. The Government and donors have made some attempts to support local markets through purchases of grain, but with limited funding available the efforts have not been successful so far. Some 6.5 million people, affected by a severe drought in the last two years and the war with neighbouring Eritrea, depend on food assistance.

An Emergency Operations (EMOP) worth about US$90 million was jointly approved in March 2001 by FAO and WFP for relief food assistance to 2.5 million small-scale farmers and drought-affected pastoralists, for a period of 10 months (April 2001 to January 2002). A revised EMOP was also approved jointly in April 2001 for 323 000 internally displaced people due to the war, worth a total of about US$55 million until end of July 2001. Food aid pledges by mid-July amounted to 556 000 tonnes, of which 259 000 tonnes have been delivered.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2001 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

 
Wheat
Rice
Coarse grains
Total
Previous five years average production
1 145
-
7 103
8 248
Previous five years average imports
556
17
45
618
2001 Domestic Availability
1 369
-
7 569
8 938
2000 Production (rice in paddy terms)
1 369
-
7 569
8 938
2000 Production (rice in milled terms)
1 369
-
7 569
8 938
Possible stock drawdown
-
-
-
-
2001 Utilization
1 769
50
7 639
9 458
Food use
1 582
50
6 232
7 864
of which: local purchase requirement
-
-
300
300
Non-food use
137
-
1 017
1 154
Exports or re-exports
-
-
200
200
Possible stock build up
50
-
190
240
2001 Import Requirement
400
50
70
520
Anticipated commercial imports
70
50
10
130
Food aid needs
330
-
60
390
Current Aid Position
       
Food aid pledges
458
1
97
556
of which: delivered
230
1
28
259
Donor-financed purchases
-
-
17
17
of which: for local use
-
-
17
17
for export
-
-
-
-
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year)
24
1
96
121
Indexes
       
2000 Production as % of average:
     
108
2001 Import requirement as % of average:
     
84

FAO/GIEWS - August 2001

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