FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report Part III, No.2, August 2001 KENYA 23

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KENYA

Area:
570 000 sq.km
Climate:
North-east is semi-arid to arid; mountainous central and south-western areas have two rainy seasons: March-May and November December.
Population:
30.75 million (2001 estimate), GNP per caput US$360 (1999)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Low-income food-deficit country; regular importer and occasional exporter of grain.
Logistics:
Good port (Mombasa) and extensive rail and road network. Gateway to Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda
Major foodcrops:
Maize, wheat, pulses, roots and tubers
Marketing year:
October/September; Lean season: June-July
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
56 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Prospects for the 2001 main season cereal crops are uncertain. Abundant precipitation in April has given way to drier than normal May affecting early planted crops. Government reports indicate that planting of major crops was completed in all agro-ecological zones during May. An estimated 1 million hectares of maize were planted. Crop conditions remain favourable in the key producing areas of the Rift Valley, Western and parts of Nyanza and Central Provinces. However, parts of Eastern, most of Coast and lowland areas of Central Provinces have seen deteriorating crop conditions, particularly the maize crop that exhibited severe moisture stress. Initial forecasts for the maize crop of about 2.34 million tonnes may now be difficult to achieve.

The overall food supply situation has improved considerably following favourable short-rains harvests and improved pasture in several central and western pastoral districts following abundant rains. However, eastern pastoral districts have yet to recover with only scanty rainfall received so far.

The severe drought in 1999/2000 seriously undermined the food security of 4.4 million people, particularly in pastoral areas, and resulted in a massive relief operation. Notable improvement in rates of child malnutrition were reported illustrating the impact of emergency interventions. However, emergency food assistance will still be required, at least until the main season harvest towards the end of the year.

A revised Emergency Operation (EMOP) was jointly approved in January 2001 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to the 4.4 million drought affected people. Delays in shipments were reported to have caused problems since January 2001.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2000/01 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

 
Wheat
Rice
Coarse grains
Total
Previous five years average production
267
50
2 588
2 905
Previous five years average imports
456
222
745
1 423
2000/01 Domestic Availability
180
33
2 016
2 229
2000 Production (rice in paddy terms)
130
50
1 916
2 096
2000 Production (rice in milled terms)
130
33
1 916
2 079
Possible stock drawdown
50
-
100
150
2000/01 Utilization
780
233
3 380
4 393
Food use
760
213
3 104
4 077
of which: local purchase requirement
-
-
7
7
Non-food use
20
20
276
316
Exports or re-exports
-
-
-
-
Possible stock build up
-
-
-
-
2000/01 Import Requirement
600
200
1 364
2 164
Anticipated commercial imports
451
200
750
1 401
Food aid needs
149
-
614
763
Current Aid Position
       
Food aid pledges
51
-
111
162
of which: delivered
16
-
111
127
Donor-financed purchases
-
-
7
7
of which: for local use
-
-
7
7
for export
-
-
-
-
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year)
25
7
101
133
Indexes
       
2000 Production as % of average:
     
72
2000/01 Import requirement as % of average:
     
152

FAO/GIEWS - August 2001

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