FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report Part III, No.2, August 2001 LESOTHO 24

LESOTHO

CURRENT SITUATION

An FAO/ WFP Crop and Supply Assessment Mission visited the country from 5 to 16 May 2001, to review prospects for the 2000/01 crops and the overall food supply situation, and to estimate the cereal import requirements, including food aid, for the 2001/02 marketing year.

The Mission estimated that the total cropped area had not changed from normal years. However at the beginning of January 2001 a cold front passed over Lesotho causing frost that severely affected crops at their critical development stages. It was immediately followed by a prolonged dry spell, a heat wave and a hailstorm in parts, all of which further damaged crops and resulted in poor crop yields. Frost damage was particularly severe in the mountain districts where many households suffered total crop loss. As a result of these adverse effects, the Mission forecast the 2001 cereal production at 80 000 tonnes, which is about 55 percent below last year and 60 percent below the average of the last five years. Maize production is estimated at 58 000 tonnes, wheat and sorghum each at 11 000 tonnes. Other crops such as beans and peas were also observed on most farmers' fields, and contribute to the diet of families and cash incomes when grown in larger quantities.

For the 2001/02 marketing year (April/March), domestic cereal supply, estimated at 112 000 tonnes, falls far short of national consumption requirements. The cereal import requirement was estimated at 332 000 tonnes, which is expected to be covered mostly by commercial imports. Even in normal years, Lesotho's cereal production covers about 50 percent of its domestic consumption requirements. The one-to-one convertibility of the local currency with the South African Rand means that availability of foreign exchange is not a major constraint to commercial imports from South Africa.

The Mission estimated that there was no need for large-scale food assistance. At the household level, while most families will face larger than usual food deficits in marketing year 2001/02 (nearly all rural households in Lesotho buy food between harvests), they have adequate coping means to get them through to the next harvest, provided food prices remain stable. The means include sale of livestock (over 80 percent of rural households own cattle, goats and sheep) remittances from family members working in South Africa and towns in Lesotho, as well as local wage labour and informal sector income earning activities. However, there is a relatively small proportion of rural households (probably 10-15 percent) in the most affected districts (Mokhotlong, Thaba-Tseka, Mohale's Hoek and Quthing) who have lost their crops but have neither livestock nor off-farm income with which to access food on the market. This is the group most at risk. The group will also not have seed for planting in the next cropping season starting in September 2001.

The Mission recommended that a rapid survey be undertaken in the four worst affected districts to identify, quantify and precisely target these households for food and seed assistance. It recommended that the survey be jointly undertaken by Government of Lesotho/WFP/FAO's Special Relief Operation Service (TCOR).

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2001/02 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)