FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report Part III, No.2, August 2001 SUDAN 42

SUDAN

CURRENT SITUATION

Planting of the 2001 main season cereal crop is in progress in central and northern growing areas. Early prospects are unfavourable due to below normal rains in May and June which affected planting. More rains are needed in the coming weeks to avoid further reductions in yield potential. In southern Sudan prospects are also unfavourable. The area planted has been reduced by continuous population displacements due to recent upsurge in conflict coupled with late and insufficient rains. Erratic rains in May and June have in general negatively affected crop development. The situation gives cause for serious concern in Northern Bahr-El-Ghazal where escalation of civil conflict was more pronounced.

The aggregate cereal production in 2000/01 is estimated at 3.33 million tonnes, representing a drop of about 21 percent compared to the average of the previous five years. The cereal import requirement in the 2000/01 marketing year (November/October) is estimated at 1.4 million tonnes. Commercial imports are estimated at about 1.2 million tonnes, about the same as last year's actual imports, with the rest being food assistance requirements.

Lower harvests for two consecutive years coupled with virtual depletion of stocks have led to a sharp rise in cereal prices. In March and April 2001 sorghum prices averaged SP45 000 compared to SP15 000 for the same period in 1999 and SP30 000 in 2000. Such an increase has reduced access to food for the poorer segments of the population. The purchasing power of large numbers of people, particularly pastoralists, has been seriously eroded. With coping mechanisms stretched to the limit, farmers and other vulnerable groups have migrated in search of work and food. The number of people joining WFP's "Food for Work" programmes has increased dramatically. Government efforts to mitigate food shortages by lifting customs duties on food imports and financing grain purchases through the recently instituted Strategic Commodity Stock Authority have, to some extent, helped stabilise cereal markets. However, acute food shortages and severe malnutrition rates are on the rise. The situation is likely to worsen in the coming months with the lean season just starting and only a fraction of the appeal for international food assistance pledged so far. The population most affected by last year's drought are mainly located in greater Darfur and Kordofan, Bahr el Ghazal, Bahr el Jebel, East Equatoria, Jonglei, Red Sea and Butana province in Gezira State. Latest estimates put the number of people in need of urgent food assistance in Sudan at some 2.97 million affected by both drought and/or civil war. There is an urgent need of more food aid pledges and support for logistics if large scale starvation is to be avoided.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2000/01 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)