FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 2001 KENYA 23

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KENYA

Area:

570 000 sq.km

Climate:

North-east is semi-arid to arid; mountainous central and south-western areas have two rainy seasons: March-May and November December.

Population:

31.61 million (2002 estimate), GNP per caput US$360 (2000)

Specific characteristics of the country:

Low-income food-deficit country; regular importer and occasional exporter of grain.

Logistics:

Good port (Mombasa) and extensive rail and road network. Gateway to Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda

Major foodcrops:

Maize, wheat, pulses, roots and tubers

Marketing year:

October/September; Lean season: June-July

Share of cereals in total calorie intake:

56 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


Harvesting of the 2001 main "long rains" cereal crops is complete in the main growing areas of the Rift Valley, Western and Nyanza Provinces. The main rainy season (March-May), which normally accounts for 80 percent of total annual food production, has largely been favourable resulting in improved food supply in most parts of the country. Preliminary official estimates indicate a maize output of about 2.31 million tonnes for the season, an increase of about 20 percent over the reduced harvest last year. With forecast of normal secondary season rains, the 2001/02 aggregate maize output is forecast at 2.7 million tonnes, well above average.

Following the good cereal harvest and adequate stock levels, prices of maize, the staple crop, have declined considerably prompting the Government to appeal to donors to increase local purchases to support the producers.

However, despite the improvement in the overall food supply situation, pastoralists in northern and eastern parts of the country continue to face serious food supply difficulties. Water and pasture conditions remain poor and with below-normal rainfall forecast in the September to December season the situation is anticipated to deteriorate further. This has already led to long distance trekking in search of grazing which in turn has increased the likelihood of large-scale livestock mortality.

In September 2001 WFP distributed food aid to about 1.56 million people in 13 pastoral and agro-pastoral districts.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2001/02 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Previous five years average production

230

51

2 357

2 638

Previous five years average imports

539

207

940

1 686

2001/02 Domestic Availability

230

33

3 129

3 392

2001 Production (rice in paddy terms)

230

50

2 939

3 219

2001 Production (rice in milled terms)

230

33

2 939

3 202

Possible stock drawdown

-

-

190

190

2001/02 Utilization

830

233

3 529

4 592

Food use

797

213

3 129

4 139

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

1

1

Non-food use

33

20

400

453

Exports or re-exports

-

-

-

-

Possible stock build up

-

-

-

-

2001/02 Import Requirement

600

200

400

1 200

Anticipated commercial imports

451

200

100

751

Food aid needs

149

-

300

449

Current Aid Position
       
Food aid pledges

37

-

56

93

of which: delivered

-

-

56

56

Donor-financed purchases

-

-

1

1

of which: for local use

-

-

1

1

for export

-

-

-

-

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year)

25

7

99

131

Indexes
       
2001 Production as % of average:
     

122

2001/02 Import requirement as % of average:
     

71


FAO/GIEWS - December 2001

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