FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 2001 MADAGASCAR 26

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MADAGASCAR

Area:

582 000 sq.km

Climate:

Eastern coast is tropical wet, the rest tropical wet-dry. Rainy season: October-March; tropical cyclones

Population:

13.98 million (2001 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$260 (2000)

Specific characteristics of the country:

Low-income food-deficit country

Logistics:

Dilapidated roads and lack of spare parts and tyres

Major foodcrops:

Rice, roots, tubers, maize, fruit

Marketing year:

April/March; Lean season: February/March

Share of cereals in total calorie intake:

60 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


Planting of the 2002 paddy and coarse grain crops has started. Normal rains in October benefited land preparation for sowing. However, the outlook is uncertain reflecting an expected decline in the area planted in response to a sharp decline in domestic prices.

The 2001 paddy output is estimated 10 to 15 percent higher than in the previous year at around 2.6 million tonnes, the highest in ten years. This is the result of generally favourable growing conditions and the absence of locusts during the growing season. The bumper crop, coupled with large carry-over stocks, have resulted in a decrease of 50 percent in the price of paddy from its level prior to the harvest.

The overall food supply situation in the 2001/02 marketing year (April/March) is anticipated to remain satisfactory, including in the drought-prone southern areas. Prices of food staples, rice, maize, cassava and Irish potato, declined in July in southern areas and the number of people in need of food assistance has declined to 117 150. Food aid requirements for these areas are estimated at 3 163 tonnes of maize.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2001/02 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Previous five years average production

7

2 475

168

2 650

Previous five years average imports

83

100

10

193

2001/02 Domestic Availability

9

1 768

165

1 942

2001 Production (rice in paddy terms)

9

2 600

160

2 769

2001 Production (rice in milled terms)

9

1 768

160

1 937

Possible stock drawdown

-

-

5

5

2001/02 Utilization

79

1 880

178

2 137

Food use

79

1 750

157

1 986

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

3

3

Non-food use

-

130

21

151

Exports or re-exports

-

-

-

-

Possible stock build up

-

-

-

-

2001/02 Import Requirement

70

112

13

195

Anticipated commercial imports

68

110

10

188

Food aid needs

2

2

3

7

Current Aid Position
       
Food aid pledges

13

13

8

34

of which: delivered

2

2

2

6

Donor-financed purchases

-

-

3

3

of which: for local use

-

-

3

3

for export

-

-

-

-

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year)

5

107

10

122

Indexes
       
2001 Production as % of average:
     

104

2001/02 Import requirement as % of average:
     

101


FAO/GIEWS - December 2001

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