CURRENT SITUATION

Planting of the 2002 cereal crops, to be harvested from April next year, is well advanced. Normal rains in October, which were above average in northern and southern parts, favoured sowing operations and benefited earlier planted crops. The Government's programme of free inputs to vulnerable farmers is underway in southern parts. One million households are expected to receive agricultural inputs under the programme.

Reflecting widespread excessive rains during the growing season, the 2001 cereal production was sharply reduced. The maize crops was estimated at 1.7 million tonnes, 32 percent below the bumper crops of the previous two years, when an export surplus was available. As a result, the food supply situation is extremely tight. Official stocks, which were low at the beginning of the 2001/02 marketing year (April/March) have been depleted. Prices of maize in local markets have increased some 400 percent from theirs levels of a year ago. By October, a kilogram of maize was quoted at 18 Kawacha, against 2 to 5 Kawacha at the same time last year. Food shortages are being experienced in localized parts, particularly in the southern districts worst affected by floods. The Government has made arrangements to import 150 000 tonnes of maize from South Africa, but only 10 000 tonnes had arrived in the country by mid-October. However, most of these imports will be sold on the open market where prices have increased beyond the reach of large sections of the population. The Government is considering free distribution of maize to the most vulnerable people. Emergency food assistance distributed by WFP to 208 500 people worst affected by the floods until October, will be extended for further two months until the end of December in view of the serious food supply situation.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2001/02 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)