CURRENT SITUATION

The food situation in Somalia is rapidly deteriorating following the drought-reduced 2001 main "Gu" season harvest, the lowest in the last seven years. Recent heavy rains in neighbouring Ethiopian highlands have caused an overflow of rivers in parts of southern Somalia displacing a large number of people thus aggravating the already serious food supply situation.
More than a decade of civil strife has left Somalia impoverished and mired in an extended humanitarian crisis. Basic infrastructure and Government services, including the ability to deliver the most basic health, education, and other social services, have collapsed. A recovery in food production in the previous two cropping seasons had eased to some extent the food supply difficulties. However, the current poor harvest has offset the temporary respite due to weakened coping mechanisms by a succession of droughts earlier and the long-term effects of years of insecurity. Furthermore, the continuing ban on livestock imports from eastern Africa by countries along the Arabian Peninsula due to Rift Valley fever is causing substantial loss of income, particularly in northern Somalia. The ban imposed in September 2000 is estimated to have cost the country hard currency earnings estimated at US$120 million. Reflecting a grim food outlook, cereal prices are expected to rise, seriously eroding the purchasing power of a large section of the population. Moreover, the value of the Somali/Somaliland shilling has fallen dramatically. Between August 2000 and August 2001, the value of the Somali shilling in Mogadishu dropped from Ssh 9 500 to Ssh 20 500 for one US dollar, a depreciation of nearly 116 percent, while the value of the Somaliland shilling in Hargeysa fell from SLsh 3 000 to SLsh 6 000 to a US dollar - a fall of 100 percent.
As a result of the global economic downturn, remittances which normally contribute up to an estimated US$500 million to the economy per year compared to about US$60 million from foreign aid, are expected to dwindle significantly. Access to food for large numbers of households who depend on remittances is expected to be affected seriously. In view of the rapidly deteriorating food supply situation, rural people are leaving their villages, many with their livestock in search of food and water, moving into urban areas and crowding around feeding centres where assistance is being provided by the international community. Recent reports indicate that some 800 000 people have been affected and will require 70 000 tonnes of emergency food assistance until the next "Gu" season harvest in August 2002. Of particular concern are some 300 000 vulnerable people threatened by starvation, particularly in Gedo Region in south-eastern Somalia, as well as in Hiran, Bay and Bakool. Despite recent rainfall that enabled some plantings, prospects for the "Deyr" secondary season, which runs from October to February, are uncertain, due to the delayed onset of rains.
The Somalia Aid Co-ordination Body (SACB) - which groups United Nations agencies, non-governmental organizations and donor partners - has appealed for urgent food assistance to the affected population. Non-food assistance, such as water and medical supplies, is also required for thousands of children who are at the risk of disease and malnutrition. Earlier in the year a UN Inter-Agency Consolidated Appeal was launched for US$130 million, to support livelihoods and assist the country's recovery. The international donor community is urged to make urgent pledges and contributions, failing which there is increased likelihood of large-scale starvation in the most affected areas.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2001/02 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)