At the close of 2001, sub-Saharan Africa's overall food supply situation is generally better than it was at the end of last year, with improved harvests in the Horn of Africa and bumper crops in the Sahel in western Africa. However, many countries still face serious food shortages due to natural and/or man-made disasters and need food assistance. Somalia is of particular concern, as the food situation is deteriorating fast following a poor 2001 main season harvest, the lowest in the last seven years, due to drought. An estimated 800 000 people are experiencing food difficulties, with 300 000 mainly in southern regions in urgent need of food assistance. Elsewhere in eastern Africa, pastoral populations in Ethiopia and Kenya continue to depend on food assistance due to drought conditions that have persisted for the past three years. In the Great Lakes region, over 2.5 million internally displaced people (IDPs) in the Democratic Republic of Congo, who are largely inaccessible to humanitarian agencies due to insecurity, live in misery and hunger. In southern Africa, civil strife and population displacements in Angola continue unabated, while serious food shortages are emerging in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe mainly due to adverse weather that sharply reduced food production in the last main season. Elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, food assistance continues to needed in southern Sudan, parts of Uganda, Eritrea, Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone mainly due to past or ongoing conflicts.
Despite an improved food outlook in eastern Africa, the food situation in Somalia and pastoral regions of Ethiopia and Kenya gives cause for concern.
In Somalia, the food situation is rapidly deteriorating following sharply reduced 2001 main "Gu" season production, the lowest in the last seven years, due to drought. Recent heavy rains in neighbouring Ethiopian highlands have caused an overflow of rivers in southern Somalia, displacing large numbers of people, aggravating the already serious food supply situation. A recovery in food production in the previous two cropping seasons had eased to some extent the food supply situation, but the current poor harvest has ended the temporary respite, straining the coping mechanisms already weakened by a succession of droughts earlier and the long-term effects of years of insecurity. Furthermore, the continuing ban on livestock imports from eastern Africa by countries along the Arabian Peninsula due to Rift Valley fever is causing substantial loss of income, particularly in northern Somalia. The ban imposed in September 2000 is estimated to have cost the country hard currency earnings amounting to US$120 million. In addition, remittances from Somalis living abroad have been curtailed by the recent closure of the Al-Barakaat money transfer company which channelled millions of dollars into the country.
Rural people are leaving their villages, many with their livestock, in search of food and water, moving into urban areas and crowding around feeding centres where assistance is being provided by international aid agencies. Reports indicate that some 800 000 people have been affected and will require 70 000 tonnes of emergency food assistance until the next "Gu" harvest in August 2002. Of particular concern are some 300 000 vulnerable people threatened by starvation in Gedo Region in south-western Somalia as well as in Hiran, Bay and Bakool. Despite recent rainfall that enabled some plantings, prospects for the "Deyr" secondary season, which runs from October to February, are uncertain due to the delayed onset of rains. The outlook is unfavourable and the current serious food situation could deteriorate in 2002 if the current (Deyr) season fails or is unsatisfactory.
In Eritrea, the tight food supply situation stemming from the recent war with neighbouring Ethiopia and a prolonged drought in parts has somewhat eased with anticipated recovery in 2001 cereal production. Hopes of a strong recovery were dampened following below-normal rains in September at the critical stages of crop flowering and seed setting. Field assessments in September indicated lower production than estimated by the Ministry of Agriculture in early August.
Despite the anticipated improvement in food production, food assistance continues to be needed for more than 50 000 displaced people who are still unable to return to their homes, while large tracts of land remain uncultivated due to fear of landmines.
In Ethiopia, above-average 2001 main "Meher" cereal and pulse production is forecast reflecting abundant rains in major agricultural areas. With a favourable short rains "belg" crop earlier in the year, the food supply situation has significantly improved. Nevertheless, serious food shortages and unseasonable migration of people and livestock are reported in the pastoral areas in the south-eastern parts due to persistent drought. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission has just returned from the country and a report will be issued shortly.
In Kenya, the main rainy season, which normally accounts for 80 percent of total annual food production, has generally been favourable, resulting in improved food supply in most parts of the country. Preliminary official estimates indicate a maize output of about 2.31 million tonnes for the season, an increase of 20 percent over the reduced harvest last year. With a forecast of normal secondary season rains, the 2001/02 aggregate maize output is projected at 2.7 million tonnes, well above average.
In response to the good cereal harvest and carryover stocks, prices of maize, the staple crop, have declined considerably prompting the Government to appeal to donors to increase local purchases to support the market. The improvement in the overall food supply situation notwithstanding, pastoralists in northern and eastern parts of the country continue to face serious food supply difficulties. Water and pasture conditions remain poor, and with below-normal rainfall forecast in the September to December season, the situation is anticipated to deteriorate further. Long distance trekking in search of water and grazing is already evident with the threat of high livestock mortality. In September 2001, WFP distributed full food rations to 1.56 million people in 13 pastoral and agro-pastoral districts.
In Sudan, a recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to southern Sudan indicated a generally improved food supply situation compared to last year but estimated an overall deficit in cereal production. Heavy rains in August caused localised flooding and water-logging in low-lying areas, particularly in the east. However, the overall advantages of the rainfall were noted to outweigh the disadvantages. Despite the improved situation, food insecurity remains in parts, exacerbated by the absence of normal trade routes which exclude easy movement of grain or cassava flour from surplus to deficit areas.
In central and northern Sudan, harvesting of the 2001 main season cereal crops has just started. Despite the extensive floods that displaced a large number of people and destroyed crops, overall harvest prospects are favourable. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission has just returned from the country and a report is to be issued shortly.
In Tanzania, food production in 2001 is estimated at nearly 15 percent above the level of 2000 but slightly below the average of the last five years. The Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) has targeted purchases of 25 000 tonnes for the marketing year 2001/02 (June/May) which would bring stocks to 59 000 tonnes, or about 84 percent of the total planned reserve of 70 000 tonnes.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory with stable or declining cereal prices in central, east, lake and northern regions. However, sharp price increases have been reported in southern highlands and southern coast areas due partly to increased cereal demand from neighbouring countries, particularly Malawi and Zambia. Furthermore, some 12 districts in northern and central Tanzania, mainly in the regions of Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Dodoma, Morogoro, Shinyanga and Singida are reported to be facing varying degrees of food insecurity.
In Uganda, prospects for the second season harvest early next year are favourable. Widespread and abundant rains in September and October benefited developing food crops. The rains have also improved pasture conditions and water availability for livestock in pastoral districts of Kotido and Moroto. The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. However, the situation remains precarious in Katakwi District mainly due to insecurity and loss of cattle to raids. Food assistance also continues to be needed for nearly 112 000 people in Bundibugyo District, in the west, displaced by civil unrest.
In Zimbabwe, the already tight food supply situation has deteriorated as a result of reduced cereal production and general economic decline. Serious food difficulties are reported in the south, east and extreme north where production was reduced by dry weather or excessive rains. A recent vulnerability assessment indicated that 705 000 people in rural areas are at risk of food shortages. In addition, 250 000 people in urban areas are experiencing food difficulties due to a sharp increase in food prices, while some 30 000 farm workers have lost their jobs and are left without means of subsistence. The Government has started to distribute food in drought-prone areas of Masvingo and Matabeleland provinces and appealed for international food assistance on 8 November. WFP plans to distribute emergency food aid to about 558 000 most needy people spread throughout 22 districts located in chronically food deficit areas.
At the national level, stocks are being depleted. The Government has made arrangements to import 150 000 tonnes of maize but the grain has not yet reached the country. Prices of basic food commodities, as well as those of agricultural inputs, which had increased sharply in recent months, are now controlled by the Government. However, price cuts have led to significant shortages of commodities in the markets. The situation could further deteriorate next year as planting of the 2002 maize crop, now underway, is likely to be disrupted following a Government decree authorizing the seizure of commercial farms targeted for acquisition. Losses of export earnings and intensification of economic difficulties are also anticipated as commercial farmers abandon agriculture.
In Malawi the food supply situation is very tight following a decline of 25 percent in the 2001 maize crop, caused by excessive rains and floods during the last season. The strategic grain reserve has been depleted. Prices of maize, the staple food of the country, have increased by some 400 percent compared to a year ago. By October 2001, a kilogram of maize was quoted at 18 Kwacha, against 2 to 5 Kwacha at the same time last year. The sharp increase in prices has severely reduced access to food for large sections of the population. The Government has made arrangements to import 150 000 tonnes of maize but only 10 000 tonnes had been delivered by the end of October. However, substantial cross-border inflows of grain from Mozambique and Tanzania are reported.
At the household level, food shortages are emerging in the southern parts of the country, where floods affected some 650 000 people earlier in the year and caused severe crop losses. Emergency food aid is being provided to 208 500 most affected persons. Availability of other foods such as cassava and potatoes is also helping to alleviate the food shortage. Seeds and other agricultural inputs for the new season, now underway, have been distributed by the Government with the assistance of FAO and other agencies. Targeted areas include the worst affected districts of Chikwawa and Nsanje. FAO is also assisting in the vaccination/treatment of livestock to combat diseases.
In Zambia, the food supply situation in marketing year 2001/02 (April/March) is tight following a sharply reduced cereal crop. Production of maize, the country's main staple, was adversely affected by excessive rains and floods, as well as dry weather in southern parts. Maize prices have risen substantially since early June, when they should normally be declining. The Government announced a ban on maize exports in early September and has made arrangements to import 150 000 tonnes of maize.
Food difficulties are being experienced by rural communities which gathered a poor crop and by vulnerable urban households whose access to food has been significantly curtailed by high prices. The Government has appealed for international food assistance for 2 million worst affected people in 42 districts (out of 73 in the country) which have been declared as being in a state of emergency. WFP plans to distribute 42 000 tonnes to 1.3 million people in targeted districts from December until the next harvest.
In Mozambique, despite an overall satisfactory 2001 cereal harvest and food supply situation, serious food difficulties have been reported in southern provinces affected by prolonged dry weather during the growing season. These provinces were the worst affected by the severe floods last year and coping mechanisms of households have been virtually exhausted. A recent vulnerability assessment in these areas by the Government and WFP indicates that about 100 000 people are in need of emergency food assistance until the next harvest. The food situation is also difficult for low-income sections of the urban population as a result of sharp increases in maize prices. Increases have been particularly high in northern areas, partially reflecting substantial cross-border exports to Malawi. Shortages of maize for the milling industry have also been reported in Maputo, where maize prices have reached record levels.
In Madagascar, a bumper 2001 cereal crop, mainly paddy, has improved the overall food supply situation. In the chronically food deficit southern areas, production of maize and tubers was also good and structural food aid requirements are estimated at minimum levels. Prices of paddy have declined by up to 50 percent of normal levels following the exceptional harvest and high levels of carryover stocks due to late imports in marketing year 2000/01 (April/May). The low price of paddy has negatively affected incomes of commercial farmers and there is serious concern about planting prospects for the new season which has just started.
Elsewhere in the sub-region, 2001 cereal output was sharply reduced in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland. Despite the relatively strong commercial import capacity of these countries, food difficulties are being experienced by vulnerable groups with low purchasing power. In Angola, although foodcrop production increased this year, the food situation of large numbers of IDPs remains very serious. Distribution of humanitarian assistance continues to be constrained by insecurity and insufficient resources.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo the food situation is extremely tight, particularly in eastern parts worst affected by persistent fighting and insecurity. Planting of the 2002 first season crops has started under favourable weather conditions in these areas but the on-going conflict continues to disrupt agricultural activities. The number of internally displaced people and refugees to neighbouring countries continues to increase. Access to the displaced population in some areas has improved in recent months with partial pullback of foreign armies and strengthening of UN peace-keepers. However, insecurity continues to hinder distribution of food aid in most areas. Overall, it is estimated that out of some 2.5 million internally displaced people, less than half have direct access to relief assistance.
The nutritional and health situation of the displaced population gives cause for serious concern. Recent assessments indicate alarming rates of children malnutrition in the southeastern province of Katanga, where 11 children are reportedly dying daily. In general, the nutritional situation remains serious throughout the country, including in Kinshasa and other urban centres.
In Rwanda, excessive rains in September and October caused serious crop damage in high altitude areas mainly in the northwestern province of Gisenyi, but also in Gitarama and Gikongoro Provinces. Loss of life and severe damage to housing and infrastructure due to floods were reported. It is estimated that 5 000 households have been seriously affected by the floods and need emergency relief.
The overall food supply situation has improved considerably following good harvests in the 2001 A and B seasons. In particular, areas affected by recurring droughts in recent years obtained good harvests this season. Food prices have stabilized and import requirements have declined substantially.
In Burundi, the security situation remains volatile in many areas. Incidents of violence continue to be reported in Makamba, Rutana and Ruyigi provinces. Armed attacks have also been reported in Bujumbura Rural and peripheral suburbs of Bujumbura, the capital city.
The overall food supply situation has improved with the substantially increased food production in 2001. The nutritional situation has also improved with a decline in the number of beneficiaries in nutrition centres in recent months. However emergency food assistance continues to be needed for some 432 000 internally displaced people and other vulnerable sections of the population.
In the Sahel, the rainy season is over and harvest prospects are good. Rains started on time and remained generally widespread and regular in June, July and August. Only limited replantings were necessary in localized areas as no prolonged dry spells were experienced. However, in September, precipitation ceased somewhat early in Burkina Faso and remained below average in Cape Verde. The pest situation was mostly calm. The rains permitted satisfactory regeneration of pastures and replenishment of water reserves.
In October 2001, joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Missions to the nine CILSS member countries estimated aggregate 2001 cereal production at around 11.7 million tonnes, well above 2000 production and above the average of the last five years. Record harvests were estimated in Burkina Faso, The Gambia and Niger, while production was above average in Chad, Mali and Senegal. Prospects are less favourable in Cape Verde, Mauritania and Guinea-Bissau as compared to last year.
Following these good harvests, the overall food supply situation has improved, notably in certain areas in Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger, where harvests were poor last year. Farmers will be able to replenish their grain stocks, while replenishment of national food reserves, depleted by food aid distributions or sales at subsidised prices during the 2001 lean season, will be facilitated by low cereal prices on local markets. Localized deficits in some areas can be covered by transfers from surplus areas. Overall, therefore, the food supply situation in the Sahel is expected to be stable in the 2002 marketing year.
Among the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, food difficulties persist in a few countries. In Guinea, although harvest prospects are favourable, reflecting generally good weather conditions, flooding in Haute Guinée in August and September affected some 220 000 people and destroyed over 20 000 hectares of crops. In the border areas, recurrent rebel incursions from Sierra Leone have also affected agriculture and marketing activities. The security situation has improved recently except in Kissidougou area, in southern Guinea. Refugees have been relocated from the Parrot's Beak to new camps in Upper Guinea. There are about 180 000 IDPs in the country.
In Liberia, crop growing conditions have been generally favourable for the rice crop about to be harvested. However, food supply difficulties persist as domestic production has not fully recovered from several years of civil war. It is estimated that there are about 70 000 Sierra Leonean refugees, mainly in Lofa county, one of Liberia's main rice producing areas. Recent fighting in the county disrupted farming and displaced thousands of people. Food distributions are underway in IDP camps but some areas remain inaccessible to relief agencies.
In Sierra Leone, rice production is expected to be above last year's level, reflecting increased plantings by returning farmers and improved conditions for distribution of inputs. However, the food supply situation remains tight as a result of years of civil strife. About 400 000 IDPs and returnees are presently housed in various camps but mostly in the main towns and in Tonkili and Port Loko districts. An improvement in the security situation has facilitated access to vulnerable populations. Sierra Leone continues to depend heavily on international food assistance.
While the overall food outlook for sub-Saharan Africa is better than it was at this time last year, a number of countries need continued food assistance, as well as support to national agricultural recovery and reconstruction programmes. The attention of the international community is drawn to the following areas requiring priority action.
First, urgent food assistance is needed in Somalia where the food situation is deteriorating fast due drought, heightened insecurity and sharply diminished hard currency earnings and remittances. It is estimated that around 800 000 people are at risk of serious food shortages and even starvation if food assistance is not provided as a matter of urgency.
Second, in southern Africa, serious food shortages are emerging in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe, mainly due to weather adversities during the last cropping season. Given the limited commercial import capacity of these countries, international food assistance is needed to alleviate the suffering of the affected populations.
Third, sustained international support is needed for rehabilitation and reconstruction of agriculture in countries emerging from years of conflict or emergency situations. These countries include Eritrea, Liberia, Mozambique and Sierra Leone.
Fourth, the long-running complex emergencies in Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo need to be given greater attention in order to find solutions that will bring much needed relief for the suffering populations of these countries.
