FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 2001 5

PART II : POSITION BY SUB-REGION

• LOCUST SITUATION

The 2001/02 cereal crops have been planted or are being planted in southern Africa. Main season crops in eastern Africa have been harvested or are being harvested although the wheat crop in Sudan will be harvested from March 2002. Secondary (short rains) crops are in the ground in several countries in eastern Africa. Harvesting of the main crop is largely complete in western Africa. The 2002 main season crops will not be planted until March in the coastal countries and June in the Sahelian countries.

Cereal Crop Calendar

1/ Except Burundi, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo which have two main seasons and Tanzania whose main season follows the southern Africa planting calendar. For Sudan, the planting period for the staple coarse grain crop is June-July and the harvesting period is October-December.

In eastern Africa, harvesting of the 2001 cereal crops is underway in the northern countries of the sub-region while it has been completed in the southern parts. The 2001 aggregate sub-regional output is anticipated to increase substantially over the reduced level of last year. However, successive poor rains in most pastoral areas, particularly in Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia, continue to cause acute food shortages and the migration of thousands of people in search of water and food. In Somalia, the 2001 main "Gu" season crop was sharply reduced by dry weather. Despite recent showers that eased severe water shortages in parts, up to 800 000 people may face severe food difficulties. A recovery in food production in the previous two cropping seasons had eased to some extent the food supply difficulties, but the current poor harvest has offset the temporary respite and put under strain coping mechanisms already weakened by a succession of droughts earlier and the persistent insecurity. In Eritrea, good main season rainfall from June improved the food outlook. However, a large number of people remain displaced and dependent on emergency food assistance. In Kenya, overall food supply has improved considerably due to favourable rains in major cereal producing areas. However, a precipitous decline in maize prices is negatively impacting on farmers' incomes. In northern and eastern Kenya, hopes of recovery for pastoralists from the effects of the recent devastating prolonged drought have once again been dashed by continued drought conditions and poor weather outlook in the coming months. In Ethiopia, abundant rains in major agricultural areas preceded by a favourable short rains "belg" crop, have significantly improved the food supply situation. Nevertheless, severe food shortages and unseasonable migration of people and livestock are reported in the in pastoral areas in the south-eastern parts of the country due to persistent drought. In Sudan, despite extensive floods in parts that displaced tens of thousands of people, overall prospects for current crops have improved. In Tanzania and Uganda, the overall food supply situation is adequate following recent good harvests and improved pastures. However, food difficulties remain in parts, due to localised drought conditions and/or insecurity.

In Rwanda and Burundi, abundant rains in September and October allowed planting and establishment of the 2002 A season foodcrops, to be harvested from January. Despite localized floods and crop losses, early prospects are favourable. Notwithstanding favourable 2001 harvest in Burundi, the food situation remains difficult for some 432 000 internally displaced people who are in need of food assistance.

The aggregate cereal import requirement of the sub-region in marketing year 2001/02 is estimated at 3.3 million tonnes. Commercial imports are estimated at 2.6 million tonnes and the food aid requirements at some 0.7 million tonnes. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS up to end-November amount to 0.2 million tonnes, with 99 000 tonnes delivered so far.

In southern Africa, harvesting of the 2001 irrigated wheat crop is well advanced. A good crop is in prospect particularly in South Africa, the largest wheat producer in the sub-region. In Zimbabwe, production of wheat is forecast to be substantially higher than last year at 275 000 tonnes, reflecting larger plantings, but below the average of the past five years. In aggregate, the sub-regional wheat output is forecast at 2.7 million tonnes.

Planting of the 2001/02 crops has started. Normal to above normal precipitation in September and October in most countries of the sub-region allowed planting of the coarse grain crops, to be harvested from next April, and benefited establishment of early sown crops. The sub-region's 2001 coarse grain production is estimated at 14.7 million tonnes, a decline of 24.1 percent over 2000 and below average. This is the result of a decline in the area planted, coupled with unfavourable weather conditions. A prolonged mid-season dry spell and excessive rains during the growing season adversely affected yields. Production of maize, the main staple in the sub-region, declined substantially in all countries except Mozambique and Angola. The overall food supply situation is tight and food assistance is needed for populations affected by a poor harvest in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. In Angola, needed food assistance is needed for large numbers of internally displaced people. By contrast, in Madagascar, the overall food supply situation has improved substantially following a bumper paddy harvest coupled with large carry-over stocks.

The aggregate cereal import requirement for marketing year 2001/2002 (May/April) is estimated at 4.5 million tonnes. With commercial imports expected to reach 4.1 million tonnes, food aid requirements amount to 0.4 million tonnes.

In western Africa, FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Missions in October 2001 to the nine CILSS member countries estimated aggregate 2001 cereal production at around 11.7 million tonnes, well above 2000 production and above the average of the last five years. Record crops have been gathered in Burkina Faso, The Gambia and Niger. Production is well above average in Chad, Mali and Senegal, but prospects are less favourable for Cape Verde, Mauritania and Guinea-Bissau as compared to last year. These estimates should be viewed as preliminary, as the national surveys include forecasts for recession and off-season crops yet to be planted. The estimates may, therefore, be revised in the coming months, but it is unlikely that there will be a significant change in the overall picture.

The aggregate cereal import requirement in the 2001/02 marketing year (November/October) of the nine Sahelian countries is estimated at about 2.1 million tonnes and the food aid requirement at 0.1 million tonnes, mainly in wheat and rice.

In the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, estimates of the 2001 cereal production are not yet available. Harvest prospects are mixed in C�te d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Togo, following reduced rains in September. They are favourable in Guinea following good rains except in the areas affected by floods in Haute Guin�e or by rebel activity in border areas. Rice production should increase in Liberia and Sierra Leone following an improvement in the security situation. For the coastal countries, which have a January/December marketing year, the aggregate 2001 cereal import requirement was estimated at 5.3 million tonnes. Commercial imports are estimated at 5.05 million tonnes, while food aid needs are estimated at 0.2 million tonnes. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of end-November 2001 amount to 206 000 tonnes.

LOCUST SITUATION

The Desert Locust situation remained mostly calm during 2001 growing season. In western Africa, isolated adults were reported in western Mauritania and northern Niger where small-scale breeding was in progress in a few places. Scattered adults are expected to appear and lay on a limited scale in northwestern Mauritania where unusually heavy rains fell in late September. Although no significant developments are expected, regular surveys are recommended in the above areas.

In eastern Africa, summer breeding has probably ended in the interior of Sudan where little rain fell in October and vegetation is drying out. Low numbers of adults are likely to appear and lay on the Red Sea coast, primarily in the Tokar Delta of Sudan, which received heavy rainfall in late October, and to a lesser extent on the surrounding plains as far south as northern Eritrea.

In central Africa, crop prospects are generally favourable in Central African Republic and Cameroon. Agriculture is steadily recovering in the Republic of Congo following civil disturbances in 1998 and 1999. Persistent civil strife in the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to hamper agricultural and marketing activities. The food and health situation of over 2.5 million internally displaced people gives cause for serious concern.

For the countries of the sub-region which have a January/December marketing year, the 2001 cereal import requirement is estimated at 846 000 tonnes. The food aid requirement, estimated at 40 000 tonnes, is fully covered.

The table below summarises sub-Saharan Africa's cereal import and food aid requirements by sub-region.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Cereal Import and Food Aid Requirements by Sub-Region (in thousand tonnes)