FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.1, April 2002 KENYA 23

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KENYA

Area:
570 000 sq.km
Climate:
North-east is semi-arid to arid; mountainous central and south-western areas have two rainy seasons: March-May and November December.
Population:
31.61 million (2002 estimate), GNP per caput US$360 (2000)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Low-income food-deficit country; regular importer and occasional exporter of grain.
Logistics:
Good port (Mombasa) and extensive rail and road network. Gateway to Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda
Major foodcrops:
Maize, wheat, pulses, roots and tubers
Marketing year:
October/September; Lean season: June-July
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
56 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


The 2002 main "long rains" cropping season has began and the outlook is favourable due to the forecasted near normal rainfall in major producing areas. Exceptions are Turkana, western Marsabit, northern coastal districts and areas around the shores of Lake Victoria.

Harvesting of the 2001/02 secondary "short rains" cereal crop, which accounts for some 15 percent of annual production, is complete. favourable rains during the season in main producing areas have helped improve yields. This crop provides the main source of food in parts of Central and Eastern provinces. The 2001 main "long rains" cereal crop was significantly higher than in 2000, mainly reflecting abundant and well distributed rains in the main producing area of the Rift Valley Province. Maize production has been estimated at 2.34 million tonnes for the season, an increase of about 20 percent over the previous year. The aggregate 2001/02 maize production is now estimated at 2.7 million tonnes. Reflecting the good maize crop and carryover stocks, prices have declined sharply in recent months, prompting the Government to appeal to donors to increase local purchases.

Despite an overall improvement in food supply, food supply difficulties persist in pastoral areas, particularly in Turkana, Mandera and parts of Marsabit Districts.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2001/02 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


 

Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Previous five years average production

230

52

2 357

2 639

Previous five years average imports

553

78

920

1 551

2001/02 Domestic Availability

300

36

3 089

3 425

2001 Production (rice in paddy terms)

230

55

2 939

3 224

2001 Production (rice in milled terms)

230

36

2 939

3 205

Possible stock drawdown

70

-

150

220

2001/02 Utilization

840

141

3 489

4 470

Food use

807

120

3 079

4 006

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

100

100

Non-food use

33

21

400

454

Exports or re-exports

-

-

10

10

Possible stock build up

-

-

-

-

2001/02 Import Requirement

540

105

400

1 045

Anticipated commercial imports

470

105

200

775

Food aid needs

70

-

200

270

Current Aid Position

       

Food aid pledges

38

-

71

108

of which: delivered

38

-

71

108

Donor-financed purchases

-

-

5

5

of which: for local use

-

-

4

4

for export

-

-

1

1

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year)

26

4

97

127

Indexes

       

2001 Production as % of average:

     

122

2001/02 Import requirement as % of average:

     

67


FAO/GIEWS - April 2002

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