Appendix Table 1: Details of Investment Requirements by Objective and Time Horizon
Investment Item |
Investment estimate US$ billion | ||||||||||||||
Immediate |
Short term |
Medium term |
Total | ||||||||||||
Years 20. |
02 |
03 |
04 |
05 |
06 |
07 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
|
Investments | |||||||||||||||
Land and Water |
1.8 |
2.4 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
36.9 |
Rural Infrastructure |
2.3 |
4.5 |
7.4 |
7.4 |
7.6 |
7.2 |
6.9 |
6.1 |
7.2 |
6.7 |
6.6 |
7.8 |
7.7 |
3.5 |
88.9 |
Trade-related capacities for improved market access |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0. 1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
2.8 |
National food security |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
6.6 |
Regional Food security |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
1.0 |
Research & technol. |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
4.6 |
Sub-total |
4.7 |
7.6 |
11.2 |
11.1 |
13.2 |
12.7 |
12.4 |
11.6 |
11.2 |
10.0 |
9.2 |
10.7 |
9.8 |
5.4 |
140.8 |
34.6 |
61.1 |
45.1 |
|||||||||||||
Operations and maintenance | |||||||||||||||
Land & water |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
31.6 |
Rural infrastructure |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
36.9 |
Sub-total |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
3.6 |
4.3 |
4.8 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
6.4 |
6.7 |
7.0 |
7.2 |
7.5 |
68.5 |
9.5 |
24.2 |
34.8 |
68.5 | ||||||||||||
Safety nets, food & agriculture emergencies, disasters and humanitarian | |||||||||||||||
Nominal provision - all needs |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
42.0 |
Sub-total |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
42.0 |
12.0 |
15.0 |
15.0 |
42.0 | ||||||||||||
Grand Total |
9.9 |
12.7 |
16.8 |
17.2 |
19.8 |
20.0 |
20.2 |
20.1 |
20.2 |
19.4 |
18.9 |
20.7 |
20.0 |
15.9 |
251.8 |
56.1 |
100.3 |
94.9 |
251.3 | ||||||||||||
Summary of investment estimates (US$ billion) | |||||||||||||||
Investments, incl. research & technol. |
4.7 |
7.6 |
11.2 |
11.1 |
13.2 |
12.7 |
12.4 |
11.6 |
11.2 |
10.0 |
9.2 |
10.7 |
9.8 |
5.4 |
140.8 |
Operations and maintenance |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
3.6 |
4.3 |
4.8 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
6.4 |
6.7 |
7.0 |
7.2 |
7.5 |
68.5 |
Food & agriculture emergencies, disasters and humanitarian: nominal provision |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
42.0 |
Total |
9.9 |
12.7 |
16.8 |
17.2 |
19.8 |
20.0 |
20.2 |
20.1 |
20.2 |
19.4 |
18.9 |
20.7 |
20.0 |
15.9 |
251.8 |
56.1 |
100.3 |
94.9 |
251.3 | ||||||||||||
(Appendix Table 1 continued)
Investment Item |
Investment estimate US$ billion | ||||||||||||||
Immediate |
Short term |
Medium term |
Total | ||||||||||||
Years 20. |
02 |
03 |
04 |
05 |
06 |
07 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
|
Investment estimates by planning horizon (US$ billion) | |||||||||||||||
Land and water + rural |
34.6 |
61.1 |
45.1 |
140.8 | |||||||||||
Operations & M. |
9.5 |
24.2 |
34.8 |
68.5 | |||||||||||
Safety nets, food + agric. emergencies. |
12.0 |
15.0 |
15.0 |
42.0 | |||||||||||
Total |
56.1 |
100.3 |
94.9 |
251.3 | |||||||||||
Appendix Table 2: Investment Projections for Water, Land and Rural Infrastructure
and Trade-related capacities for improved market access (by Geographical Sub-Region) (US$ billion)
Region |
On-farm and small-scale irrigation, and land improvement |
Rehab. |
Large scale irrigation schemes |
Sub-totals |
Storage |
Marketing |
Processing |
Rural Roads |
Trade-related capacities for improved market access |
Sub-totals |
Totals |
North Africa |
1.62 |
2.95 |
6.59 |
11.16 |
1.64 |
1.25 |
2.66 |
5.07 |
0.09 |
10.71 |
21.87 |
Dry Sahelian belt |
3.37 |
3.25 |
2.63 |
9.25 |
1.73 |
1.36 |
2.78 |
10.09 |
0.30 |
16.26 |
25.51 |
Gulf of Guinea |
2.79 |
0.33 |
0.68 |
3.80 |
1.41 |
1.13 |
2.27 |
15.14 |
0.30 |
20.25 |
24.05 |
Central Africa |
0.80 |
0.30 |
0.40 |
1.50 |
0.29 |
0.23 |
0.47 |
7.48 |
0.15 |
8.62 |
10.12 |
East Africa |
2.59 |
0.43 |
1.10 |
4.11 |
1.21 |
0.96 |
1.95 |
15.87 |
0.21 |
20.2 |
24.31 |
Southern Africa |
2.41 |
1.45 |
1.87 |
5.74 |
1.27 |
1.01 |
2.05 |
7.08 |
0.21 |
11.62 |
17.36 |
Islands |
0.81 |
0.19 |
0.32 |
1.32 |
0.29 |
0.23 |
0.47 |
1.43 |
0.18 |
2.6 |
3.92 |
Total |
14.39 |
8.90 |
13.59 |
36.88 |
7.84 |
6.17 |
12.65 |
62.16 |
1.44 |
90.26 |
127.14 |
Appendix Table 3: Investment Projections for Water, Land and Rural Infrastructure
and Trade-related capacities for improved market access (by Regional Group) (US$ million)
Regional Group |
On-farm and small-scale irrigation, and land improvement |
Rehab. |
Large scale irrigation schemes |
Sub-totals |
Storage |
Marketing |
Processing |
Rural Roads |
Trade-related capacities for improved market access |
Sub-totals |
Totals |
CEEAC |
1 370 |
486 |
722 |
2 578 |
5 488 |
5 074 |
6 976 |
9 418 |
27 |
26 983 |
29 561 |
CEMAC |
814 |
85 |
378 |
1 277 |
486 |
601 |
946 |
2 389 |
15 |
4 437 |
5 714 |
CEN-SAD |
6 719 |
6 124 |
9 158 |
22 001 |
1 998 |
854 |
3 628 |
20 967 |
33 |
27 480 |
49 481 |
COMESA |
5 534 |
5 944 |
7 676 |
19 154 |
1 902 |
1 122 |
3 595 |
26 298 |
45 |
32 962 |
52 116 |
ECOWAS |
4 073 |
683 |
1 733 |
6 489 |
1 159 |
1 109 |
2 556 |
20 141 |
39 |
25 004 |
31 493 |
IGAD |
3 683 |
3 101 |
2 352 |
9 136 |
1 154 |
847 |
2 256 |
16 073 |
18 |
20 348 |
29 484 |
SADC |
3 298 |
1 764 |
2 269 |
7 331 |
754 |
436 |
1 467 |
15 836 |
36 |
18 529 |
25 860 |
UEMOA |
1564 |
385 |
1 023 |
2 972 |
2 034 |
2 726 |
4 069 |
4 393 |
15 |
13 237 |
16 209 |
UMA |
1 708 |
980 |
2 060 |
4 748 |
459 |
238 |
515 |
239 |
3 |
1 454 |
6 202 |
Appendix Table 4: Annual Investment and Maintenance Requirements to 2015 (US$ million)
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 | |
Investments |
||||||||||||||
Land & Water Developments |
1 826 |
2 345 |
2 886 |
2 886 |
4 463 |
4 259 |
4 317 |
4 317 |
2 797 |
2 302 |
1 513 |
1 571 |
783 |
610 |
Rural Infrastructure |
2 275 |
4 545 |
7 384 |
7 384 |
7 568 |
7 181 |
6 857 |
6 143 |
7 155 |
6 703 |
6 611 |
7 808 |
7 716 |
3 501 |
Trade-related capacities for improved market access |
114 |
195 |
237 |
234 |
240 |
186 |
122 |
75 |
15 |
15 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Total Investments |
4 215 |
7 085 |
10 507 |
10 504 |
12 271 |
11 626 |
11 296 |
10 535 |
9 967 |
9 020 |
8 124 |
9 379 |
8 499 |
4 111 |
Operation & Maintenance |
||||||||||||||
Land & Water Developments |
135 |
352 |
652 |
952 |
1 394 |
1 845 |
2 299 |
2 752 |
3 066 |
3 298 |
3 459 |
3 623 |
3 717 |
3 801 |
Rural Infrastructure |
1 546 |
1 713 |
1 880 |
2 048 |
2 215 |
2 382 |
2 550 |
2 717 |
2 884 |
3 051 |
3 219 |
3 386 |
3 553 |
3 721 |
Total Operation & Maintenance |
1 681 |
2 065 |
2 532 |
3 000 |
3 609 |
4 227 |
4 849 |
5 469 |
5 950 |
6 349 |
6 678 |
7 009 |
7 270 |
7 522 |
Appendix Table 5: Projections by Source of Financing for Land and Water investments
Contribution % |
US $ million | ||||||
Public Sector |
ODA |
Private Sector |
Public Sector |
ODA |
Private Sector |
Total | |
Large irrigation schemes | |||||||
Non- LIFDCs |
100 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
3,155 |
0 |
0 |
3,155 |
LIFDCS |
60 |
40 |
0.0 |
6,260 |
4,174 |
0 |
10,434 |
Rehabilitation of large irrigation schemes | |||||||
Non- LIFDCs |
90 |
0.0 |
10 |
1,488 |
0 |
165 |
1,653 |
LIFDCS |
50 |
40 |
10 |
3,914 |
2,609 |
725 |
7,248 |
Small irrigation schemes |
|||||||
Non- LIFDCs |
20 |
0.0 |
80 |
273 |
0 |
1,091 |
1,364 |
LIFDCS |
10 |
10 |
80 |
782 |
521 |
5,214 |
6,518 |
Wetland and Inland valley bottoms | |||||||
Non- LIFDCs |
20 |
0.0 |
80 |
25 |
0 |
102 |
127 |
LIFDCS |
10 |
10 |
80 |
246 |
164 |
1,639 |
2,049 |
Water harvesting, soil and water conservation | |||||||
Non- LIFDCs |
20 |
0.0 |
80 |
91 |
0 |
366 |
457 |
LIFDCS |
10 |
10 |
80 |
221 |
147 |
1,470 |
1,838 |
Land improvement | |||||||
Non- LIFDCs |
100 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
381 |
0 |
0 |
381 |
LIFDCS |
60 |
40 |
0.0 |
991 |
660 |
0 |
1,651 |
Total |
17,827 |
8,276 |
10,773 |
36,875 | |||
48% |
22% |
29% | |||||
Notes: Just as for rural infrastructure investments (Tables 17 and 18), the likelihood of private sector participation to the degree assumed here will need country by country assessment, given that historical involvement has been weak except in a few countries. The same will apply to ODA expectations, given the tendency for aid to go to only a few countries. For more conservative expectations of possible progression of all-Africa shares of public, private funding as well as internal vs. external funding, see Tables 3, 4.
Appendix Table 6: Annual Funding Requirements for National SPFS, based on Regional Economic Organisation Groups (US$ million)PFS, based on Regional Economic Organisation Groups (US$ million)
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
Total | |
SPFS: Sub-total National programmes grouped by regional organisation |
320 |
340 |
360 |
380 |
440 |
450 |
460 |
470 |
480 |
520 |
540 |
560 |
580 |
600 |
6 500 |
AMU |
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
124 |
CEN-SAD |
66 |
70 |
74 |
78 |
90 |
92 |
95 |
97 |
99 |
107 |
111 |
115 |
119 |
123 |
1 336 |
CEMAC |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
283 |
COMESA |
193 |
205 |
217 |
229 |
265 |
271 |
277 |
283 |
289 |
313 |
325 |
337 |
349 |
361 |
3 910 |
ECCAS |
82 |
87 |
92 |
97 |
112 |
115 |
117 |
120 |
123 |
133 |
138 |
143 |
148 |
153 |
1 659 |
ECOWAS |
51 |
54 |
57 |
60 |
70 |
71 |
73 |
74 |
76 |
82 |
86 |
89 |
92 |
95 |
1 030 |
IGAD |
97 |
103 |
109 |
115 |
133 |
136 |
140 |
143 |
146 |
158 |
164 |
170 |
176 |
182 |
1 972 |
SADC |
128 |
136 |
144 |
152 |
176 |
180 |
184 |
188 |
192 |
208 |
216 |
224 |
232 |
240 |
2 601 |
UEMOA |
26 |
27 |
29 |
30 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
38 |
38 |
42 |
43 |
45 |
46 |
48 |
520 |
Note: Some countries are members of more than one Regional Economic Organisation (REO). As a result of this duplication, the sum of the individual REO figures exceeds the figures for Africa as a whole.
Appendix Table 7: Annual Funding Requirements for Regional SPFS (i.e. RPFS)
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
Total | |
SPFS Regional Programmes Sub-total: |
|||||||||||||||
27 |
30 |
32 |
35 |
64 |
65 |
65 |
72 |
86 |
98 |
98 |
98 |
115 |
115 |
1 000 | |
AMU |
0 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
55 |
CEN-SAD |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
20 |
20 |
160 |
CEMAC |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
55 |
COMESA |
0 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
100 |
ECCAS |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
70 |
ECOWAS |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
15 |
15 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
180 |
IGAD |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
100 |
SADC |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
120 |
UEMOA |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
20 |
20 |
160 |
Appendix Table 8: Total Annual Funding Requirements for National Programmes and Rural Economic Organisation (US$ million)
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
Total | |
SPFS: Sub-total national programmes grouped by regional organisation |
320 |
340 |
360 |
380 |
440 |
450 |
460 |
470 |
480 |
520 |
540 |
560 |
580 |
600 |
6 500 |
SPFS: Sub-total regional groupings |
27 |
30 |
32 |
35 |
64 |
65 |
65 |
72 |
86 |
98 |
98 |
98 |
115 |
115 |
1 000 |
Total National Programmes and Regional Groupings |
345 |
365 |
390 |
410 |
499 |
510 |
530 |
541 |
563 |
630 |
650 |
670 |
690 |
710 |
7 500 |
Appendix Table 9: Africa Estimates of Investments (Both Sub-Saharan and North Africa Included)
Year * |
Estimated agricultural investment (US$ billion) | ||
Based on inter-year change |
Based on ratio agriculture |
Average | |
1990/91 |
2.58 |
3.88 |
3.23 |
1991/92 |
10.57 |
3.57 |
7.07 |
1992/93 |
3.34 |
4.49 |
3.91 |
1993/94 |
4.54 |
3.41 |
3.98 |
1994/95 |
5.30 |
3.27 |
4.29 |
1995/96 |
5.87 |
3.15 |
4.51 |
1996/97 |
4.75 |
3.55 |
4.15 |
1997/98 |
3.00 |
3.27 |
3.13 |
1998/99 |
1.87 |
2.79 |
2.33 |
* The asset-based estimates are from differences between calendar years and are presented for the concerned years (e.g. 1990/91); for the ratio-based estimates calendar years apply (e.g. 1990). ** Show high inter-year variability; degree of reliability uncertain. Assumed to include all assets, both private and public. *** Refer to public investments. To get Africa totals, North Africa (estimated at near historical average of about 20 percent of total Near East) added to Sub-Saharan totals. Agriculture share of total public spending in 1999 for North Africa assumed at 3.5 percent rather than the 1.1 percent reported. | |||
