By 2050, there will be two billion more people living on the African continent and over 9 billion globally. GLIMPSETM, an acronym that was introduced in a paper we wrote for IFAMA in 2012 ( http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/142306/2/Connolly2.pdf) using a modified Delphi analysis based on interviews with two dozen agribusiness experts and independent researchers, identified the seven biggest obstacles to providing enough food to feeding the people who will be living on earth by 2050. The GLIMPSE acronym stands for Government, Losses (Wastage), Infrastructure, Markets, Politics&Policies, Science and the Environment.
The GLIMPSE framework places Agribusiness alongside governments, non-governmental organizations and charities as important players in addressing what Harvard calls a ‘wicked’ problem (a problem that cannot be solved using conventional thinking) that is how to feed the growing population, and identifies specific areas where agribusiness can make a difference.
Since then, the interest in the potential of African agribusiness has led to the Economist magazine coining the phrase ‘Africa rising’, referring to Africa’s economic growth in general, the role of agribusiness in particular, and the importance of the increasingly urban population. The World Economic Forum also recognizes the importance of agriculture, noting that the ten countries which have invested 9-10% or more of their budgets in agriculture are on track to reduce extreme poverty by 50% by 2015 (Suzman 2014).
GLIMPSETM was driven by the recognition that the population of the world is due to increase by 50% in the next 30 years, from 6 billion to 9 billion people. Sub-Saharan Africa alone will account for 1/3 of that growth, as the population more than doubles from over billion in 2013 to at least 1.9 billion in 2050 (World Population Review 2014) and the region also has a very young population, with nearly half the population under the age of 25 in some states—a young population that will soon make up the world’s largest work force. In 2013, six of the top 10 fastest-growing economies in the world were in Africa, including the No.1 and No. 2, South Sudan and Libya, with GDPs of more than 30% and 20%, respectively (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2014/afr/eng/sreo0414.pdf).
Overall, the continent has averaged GDP growth of 5% annually throughout the past decade, and that pace is expected to continue, with GDP projected to triple by 2030, and achieve a sevenfold increase by 2050 (International Monetary Fund 2014).
Moreover, Africa has ample land: along with South America, it is the continent with the most potential for the development of new agricultural land and (outside the Sahara Desert) much of the continent has ample water resources. Thus, it has the potential to produce not just enough food to meet the needs of its own population, but to help meet the demands of the global population.
The United Nations’ Economic Commission on Africa says that ‘scaling up agribusiness should be Africa’s next growth frontier.’ (http://www.iol.co.za/business/news/scaling-up-agribusiness-should-be-afr...). The question is, can Africa achieve its own version of the Brazilian “miracle of the cerrados”? And if so, what steps are needed?
Despite The Economist’s optimistic headline ‘Africa Rising: The Hopeful Continent’ the obstacles identified under the GLIMPSE™ model account for much of the failure of food production and farm prices to keep up with the overall growth rate in the continent’s economies.
The continent needs not just growth but transformation: much of the economic growth has come from extractive industries, rather than building a business environment that adds value. As a result, growth has failed to produce jobs and in turn a strong middle class has been slow to develop. Agribusiness can help effect that transformation.
It will take change on the part of virtually every constituent in the food chain—governments, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), farmers, agribusiness and consumers—to successfully solve this wicked problem. It will also take cooperation, among these constituent groups, but it can be done.
Nearly three-quarters of the population of Africa rely on agriculture for their livelihoods (UNdata.org), and agribusiness and agro-industries account for more than 30% of national incomes, as well as the bulk of export revenues. Yet, “agribusiness” is often seen as being part of the problem, pursuing short-term gains at the expense of human development and the environment. NGOs in particular often see the interests of agribusiness as being in direct conflict with the interests of the population. For example, Greenpeace has argued that sustainable agriculture can deliver food for 9 billion people- if governments will listen to people, not agribusinesses (Oram 2012). We take a different perspective: that market-driven, private-sector solutions can not only complement the efforts of governments and NGOs, but also play an essential role in meeting the challenge.
Some of the GLIMPSE™ factors are equally intractable for governments, NGOs / charities and agribusiness, such as volatile weather (including climate change) and changing eating habits. Others, such as political or economic instability, require government action. Some challenges pose issues for which agribusiness can play a limited, but important role (such as regulations, resources, and infrastructure). However, there are some challenges for which agribusiness is actually the best hope for progress, most notably in supply chain management, markets and innovation.
Prof. Aidan Connolly