Hi Florence,
Hector Malett’s third contribution referenced below is far more optimistic about future food production and supplies than most predictions I’ve seen. If the figures he quotes are correct, why is it that so many other ‘experts’ are foreseeing food supply problems in the coming decades? Have they not examined the same data, or do they interpret them differently? Can someone (in FAO or elsewhere) please explain.
But there seems to be another issue that Hector does not take into account: the (unsustainable) current contribution of agriculture - including both crops and animal/meat production - to global warming and to the pressure being put on other ‘planetary boundaries’ including nitrogen, phosphorous and ocean acidity to name but three. The team of scientists that has proposed the planetary boundaries (the Stockholm Resilience Centre and others) and many of the experts who are working on ‘sustainable development’ (e.g. Jeffrey Sachs) tell us that there is an urgent need for a ‘transition’ not only in the production and use of energy but also in agricultural production methods and food habits (notably by eating less meat) if we are to limit global warming to the famous 2’C and also stay within the other planetary boundaries. If I understand him correctly, Hector is counting on a more-or-less linear development of existing food production systems, and that would quickly drive us beyond the 2’C target and other planetary boundaries. Am I missing something?
(Ron Ockwell)
Mr. Ron Ockwell