For the future of food security and nutrition, global climate change from now on
is everything for everybody
For the science referred to below, please see www.climatechange-foodsecurity.org
The 11,000 year period of relative climate stability in which agriculture developed is over
— Lester R. Brown, Full Planet, Empty Plates: The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity, September 2012
1. If you were designing an agricultural investment programme, what are the top 5 things you would do to maximize its impact on nutrition?
Invest in an emergency increase of world grain stocks to ~110 days of consumption to create a buffer against extreme weather. Establish UN controlled 110-day grain stocks in all regions.
Invest in economic instruments to phase out the production of biofuels, that exacerbate the reductions of crop yields from drought and emit carbon.
Invest in the development of small holder mixed farming that recent research indicates is more resilient to climate change.
Invest in global climate change impacts food security education for the public of all regions, for agricultural institutions, policy makers, and government staff.
Lester Brown's Earth Policy Institute provides the best readily available education materials for this. The Climate Emergency Institute (www.climateemergencyinstitute.org) has a full list of similar resources.
In particular, the most climate change vulnerable regions and populations have a clear right to know the terrible food losses they are committed to.
In the case of global climate change, if we don't have the accurate science and currently committed global warming as our basis for planning, with the best will in the world we will end up largely wasting our efforts and resources.
Central to this education is the long known fundamental relationship between an impact and the "realized" (or transient) along with the "committed" warming, which is due to several factors. For example, because of the ocean heat lag alone, the realized/transient warming is only about half the full committed equilibrium warming – and global warming lasts for thousands of years. To illustrate this, a 2.0°C warming (the policy target) is devastating for the most climate change vulnerable populations, but people have not been informed that to avoid this we have to limit warming this century to 1.0°C. Global warming is effectively irreversible and so we have to allow no margin of error for tipping crops into decline – based on committed warming.
Tragically, none of this is being applied, hence the urgent need, above anything else, for education on the science.
Regarding education priority, the impression that developed nations are not vulnerable to crop and food losses must be corrected. We are all now committed to suffer serious food production losses because we are committed to far above a 2.0°C warming. Policy commitment is a literal end of the world for food production 4.4C by 2100 (Climate Interactive)
For C3 crops (rice, wheat, soybeans, fine grains, legumes) in temperate regions, … models show decline at +1.25-2°C in global average temperature.
For C4 crops (maize, sugar cane, millet, sorghum), even modest amounts of warming are detrimental in major growing regions given the small response to CO2.
—NRC Climate Stabilization Targets, 2010, Impact Food
Save the Children Fund UK: "Identify and address the threats to nutrition from climate change and non-food land use: The global community, including the G8, the G20 and international nutrition governance structures, must identify and address the potential impact of climate change and increasing non-food land use on hunger and malnutrition."
2. To support the design and implementation of this programme, where would you like to see more research done, and why?
Research is needed on adaptation in general and regionally. People and policy makers should be informed that we have no research demonstrating if and how agriculture can be adapted to the multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change.
The new buzzword, "climate smart agriculture," is giving the impression that we know agriculture can be successfully adapted to climate change. It is not responsible language.
Research is needed for regional crop reduction risk assessment under global warming and climate change, as there is no such resource.
A study of risk should be based on:
• the total minimum unavoidable global warming from all sources of warming
• the warming that the world is committed to by the combined national policy pledges filed with the UN
• decline in yields from the model results, which should be taken from the time crops tip into decline in addition to the decline below baseline
• the worst case range from the climate crop model results (not the mean) should be taken, to partially compensate for the large number of large impacts not captured by the models
3. What can our institutions do to help country governments commit to action around your recommendations, and to help ensure implementation will be effective?
Develop and take part in the rapid education program described above, on an emergency priority basis.
Peter Carter