1. What do you think are the main drivers of and obstacles to development for Vietnam in the next 30 years?
One of the main drivers of development in Vietnam is increased market linkage through free trade agreement such as Trans Pacific Partnership and regional economic collaborations, creating market opportunities to Vietnam.
Major obstacles to development include the following: 1) risks of falling into middle-income trap; 2) inequitable and uneven growth in sectors and regions; 3) depletion of natural resources.
2. Keeping in mind that each scenario represents an extreme future, how plausible do you think the scenarios for Vietnam are? What would you like to add/change in each scenario to make it more plausible from your perspective?
The most plausible scenario seems to be the Doreki dragon based on its descriptions and its main drivers to change. It is likely that Vietnam will have a common regulated market due to emerging pressures from external buyers on quality assurance and social and environmental standards. Strong regional economic collaboration is also observed to a large extent that will create more market opportunities for Vietnam.
The scenario would be more plausible if the following inputs are taken into account:
Higher degree of public and private investment is expected, however, will be concentrated on selected industries and regions. Agriculture production will be lagged behind, due to the lack of value added from producing raw materials and exhaustion of productive natural resources. Lowland areas near metropolitan cities will likely to receive more investments than other regions. Consequently, highlands of Vietnam will become poorer without benefitting from investment.
3. What solutions would support the drivers of the best scenario and help overcome obstacles encountered on the way? How about overcoming the challenges of the worst scenarios?
In order to avoid the obstacles described in the most plausible scenario (the Doreki dragon), the following solutions would be needed. Avoiding middle-income trap, in other words, uneven and unsustained growth that benefits certain geographic regions, social groups, and industries/sectors would require radical policy reforms and massive increase in internal value, especially on land and resources productivity. Switching from raw material based and export oriented economy to more value added and resources efficient agricultural production is an urgent task. For example, massive land conversion for rubber plantation must be strongly discouraged than value added product production from latex, by creating unfavorable investment conditions. In addition, as increased economic ties within the region can bring greater and/or harmful impacts to vulnerable groups, small holders, specific measurements to compensate the losers of such changes must be devised.
4. What are the key first steps needed to get a change process in motion, and who needs to be involved?
Proactive voices and initiatives from diverse stakeholders, especially private sector that drive a radical policy reform, administered by the government will be needed as a key step.
Sra. Soojin Kim