Feedback
Are there any major omissions or gaps in the V0-draft?
CVK: National guidelines for food security and nutrition will help the member states unable to prepare such guidelines on their own. There are several reports, some are annual published by WHO, FAO, UNICEF covering the data on food production, food security and nutrition and analysis[1-19]. Several academic research teams around the globe are publishing the role of healthy diets and nutrition[20-40]. There is no national guidance on pathway to reach Sustainable Developments Goals 2.1 and 2.2. WHO global guidance needs to be tailored to the specific member state’s requirements considering local situation (geopolitical, economic, armed conflicts etc.). Non-member states may consider guidelines of the nearest neighbouring member state.
Are topics under- or over-represented in relation to their importance?
CVK: Data science, data collection, data-based approach and data analysis is over represented in relation to their importance. In food security and nutrition, newly collected data and analysis may not be adding value, moreover matching newly collected data with already reported data from FAO may lead to controversies. One of these two could be incomplete, inaccurate, not current, or may not be a reliable indicator of what it is intended to represent. Data collection and analysis does not change consumer behaviour. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic might have worsened the situation of children with undernourishment, but the number of children with undernourishment has been increasing even before pandemic[41]. Data-driven approach play an important role in “business analytics.”[42] but not to food security and nutrition. Data collection and analysis should be followed with an action plan to change consumer behaviour. Game theory provides a mathematical framework for determining what behaviour is rational for agents interacting with each other in a partially observable environment43. Multiple Agents Influence Diagrams (MAID)[43], a tool in game theory is useful in goal-oriented approach. Exploring MAID role in progress towards SDG2 by 2030 is worth an attempt.
CVK: Conceptual framework in v0-draft is not connecting global targets to national and subnational consumer behaviour, businesses, and other local actors. Sensible consumption, sustainability, resilience to climate change and weather fluctuations, leaving no one behind, availability, accessibility, gender equality are some of the important topics in the food system design. These are under- represented in the proposed framework. In many countries the data collection priorities are changed with the change of regime effecting the quality of the data.
Are there any redundant facts or statements that could be eliminated from the V0-draft?
CVK: Success stories and examples- Reported success stories/examples should be scalable to SDG 2 which requires sustainability, availability, access, utilization and stability. Problems in few nations like armed conflicts, draughts should be analysed with specific agents in MAID for respective country/neighbouring countries /region. Many programs depending on funding from international organisations end the moment funding ends.
Are any facts or conclusions refuted, questionable or assertions with no evidence-base?
“Food systems have failed us”
CVK: Above statement is questionable.
“The scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food systems are integrated into a common framework, the safe operating space for food systems, so that win-win diets (ie, healthy and environmentally sustainable) can be identified. We propose that this framework is universal for all food cultures and production systems in the world, with a high potential of local adaptation and scalability. Application of this framework to future projections of world development indicates that food systems can provide healthy diets (ie, reference diet) for an estimated global population of about 10 billion people by 2050 and remain within a safe operating space. However, even small increases in consumption of red meat or dairy foods would make this goal difficult or impossible to achieve. Within boundaries of food production, the reference diet can be adapted to make meals that are consistent with food cultures and cuisines of all regions of the world.”[44]
Total production of primary crops in 2018 is 9.1 billion tonnes. With about one-third of the total, cereals were the main group of crops produced in 2018, followed by sugar crops (24 percent) and vegetables (12 percent). Oil crops, fruit, and roots and tubers each accounted for 9 to 11 percent of the total (Source: FAOSTAT https://doi.org/10.4060/cb1329en-fig20 ).
Production of cereals, roots and tubers far exceeds human requirement for projected10 billion population by 2050. Rice, wheat, corn, potatoes and tubers production in 2018 is about 4800 billion Kg whereas the requirement for 10 billion people (adults) at 232 grams per day or about 85 Kgs per head per year amounts to 850 billion Kg. About one third of 4800 billion Kg, that is 1600 billion Kg is used as animal feed. Modifying the plant product processing to direct human consumption (retaining nutrients in tact) will reduce the animal feed production. Reducing 5% production of cereals, roots, tubers and sugar every year till 2030 reduces global greenhouse gas emissions and fresh water use by 50%. [45]
References:
UN agencies publications:
1. WORLD FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 2020 STATISTICAL YEAR BOOK, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2020
2. UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Group – Joint Child Malnutrition Estimates 2019 edition.
3. FAO. 2018. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 meeting the sustainable development goals. Rome. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO.
4. OILCROPS, FOOD OUTLOOK, 5 JUNE 2020.
5. Development Initiatives, 2018. 2018 Global Nutrition Report: Shining a light to spur action on nutrition. Bristol, UK: Development Initiatives.
6. Global action plan on physical activity 2018–2030: more active people for a healthier world, World Health Organization 2018.
7. Physical activity; November 2020, WHO.
8. FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2020. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020. Transforming food systems for affordable healthy diets. Rome, FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/ca9692en.
9. Plates, pyramids and planets Developments in national healthy and sustainable dietary guidelines: a state of play assessment Carlos Gonzalez Fischer & Tara Garnett, Published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and The Food Climate Research Network at The University of Oxford, 2016.
10. Global Recommendations on Physical Activity for Health, 5–17 years old, World Health Organization 2011.
11. Recommendations for data collection, analysis and reporting on anthropometric indicators in children under 5 years old, World Health Organization and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), 2019.
12. FAO/WHO Scientific Update on carbohydrates in human nutrition: introduction, C Nishida and F Martinez Nocito, European Journal of Clinical Nutrition (2007) 61 (Suppl 1), S1–S4.
13. World health statistics overview 2019: monitoring health for the SDGs, sustainable development goals. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2019 (WHO/DAD/2019.1). Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO
14. Joint WHO/FAO Expert Consultation on Diet, Nutrition and the Prevention of Chronic Diseases (2002 : Geneva, Switzerland) Diet, nutrition and the prevention of chronic diseases: report of a joint WHO/FAO expert consultation, Geneva, 28 January -- 1 February 2002. (WHO technical report series; 916)
15. WHO Global Database on Child Growth and Malnutrition, WHO/NUT/97.4 HO/NUT/97.4, WHO Geneva,1997.
16. Mensink, RP. Effects of saturated fatty acids on serum lipids and lipoproteins: a systematic review and regression analysis. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2016.
17. WHO healthy_diet_fact_sheet_394
18. Essential nutrition actions: mainstreaming nutrition through the life-course. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2019. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO
19. Guidelines on food fortification with micronutrients/edited by Lindsay Allen ... [et al.]. World Health Organization and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2006.
Research publications:
20. The healthiness and sustainability of national and global food based dietary guidelines: modelling study, Marco Springmann, Luke Spajic, Michael A Clark, Joseph Poore, Anna Herforth, Patrick Webb, Mike Rayner, Peter Scarborough, BMJ2020;370:m2322.
21. Alternative projections of mortality and disability by cause 1990-2020: Global Burden of Disease Study , Christopher J LMurray, Alan D Lopez, Lancet 1997; 349: 1498–1504.
22. Healthy diets from sustainable food systems A Bioversity International Initiative. Bioversity International Headquarters Maccarese (Fiumicino), Italy.
23. Strategies and interventions for healthy adolescent growth, nutrition, and development, Dougal Hargreaves, Emily Mates, Purnima Menon, Harold Alderman, Delan Devakumar, Wafai Fawzi, Geva Greenfield, Weeam Hammoudeh, Shanshan He, Anwesha Lahiri, Zheng Liu, Phuong Hong Nguyen, Vani Sethi, Haijun Wang, Lynnette M Neufeld, George C Patton, Published Online November 29, 2021 https://doi.org/10.1016/ S0140-6736(21)01593-2.
24. Global, regional, and national estimates and trends in stillbirths from 2000 to 2019: a systematic assessment; Lucia Hug, Danzhen You, Hannah Blencowe, Anu Mishra, Zhengfan Wang, Miranda J Fix, Jon Wakefield, Allisyn C Moran, Victor Gaigbe-Togbe, Emi Suzuki, Dianna M Blau, Simon Cousens, Andreea Creanga, Trevor Croft, Kenneth Hill, K S Joseph, Salome Maswime, Elizabeth M McClure, Robert Pattinson, Jon Pedersen, Lucy K Smith, Jennifer Zeitlin, Leontine Alkema, as members of the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation and its Core Stillbirth Estimation Group, Lancet 2021; 398: 772–85
25. Future Food Systems: For people, our planet, and prosperity, SEPTEMBER 2020.
26. Credit Evaluation System Based on Blockchain for Multiple Stakeholders in the Food Supply Chain, Dianhui Mao, Fan Wang , Zhihao Hao and Haisheng Li Beijing Key Laboratory of Big Data Technology for Food Safety, School of Computer and Information Engineering, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, China; Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 1627; doi:10.3390/ijerph15081627.
27. A Global Review of Food-Based Dietary Guidelines; Anna Herforth, Mary Arimond, Cristina Álvarez-Sánchez, Jennifer Coates, Karin Christianson, and Ellen Muehlhoff; Adv Nutr 2019;10:590–605; doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/advances/nmy130.
28. Health and nutritional aspects of sustainable diet strategies and their association with environmental impacts: a global modelling analysis with country-level detail Marco Springmann, Keith Wiebe, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Timothy B Sulser, Mike Rayner, Peter Scarborough; Lancet Planet Health 2018; 2: e451–61.
29. Ultra-Processing or Oral Processing? A Role for Energy Density and Eating Rate in Moderating Energy Intake from Processed Foods Ciarán G Forde,1,2 Monica Mars,3 and Kees de Graaf; Curr Dev Nutr 2020;4:nzaa019.
30. Food systems transformations, ultra-processed food markets and the nutrition transition in Asia; Phillip Baker and Sharon Friel, Globalization and Health (2016) 12:80 DOI 10.1186/s12992-016-0223-3.
31. Nutritional Benefits of Dairy Proteins, Published by: Dairy for Global Nutrition c/o U.S. Dairy Export Council.
32. Affordability of the EAT–Lancet reference diet: a global analysis, Kalle Hirvonen, Yan Bai, Derek Headey, William A Masters, Lancet Glob Health 2019, Published Online, November 7, 2019
33. Diets for a Better Future: Rebooting and Reimagining Healthy and Sustainable Food Systems in the G20, EAT report, 2020.
34. “Food Planet Health: Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems”, Summary Report of the EAT-Lancet Commission, 2019
35. Dietary energy density as a marker of dietary quality in Swedish children and adolescents: the European Youth Heart Study, E Patterson, J Wa¨rnberg, E Poortvliet, JM Kearney and M Sjo¨stro¨m, European Journal of Clinical Nutrition (2010) 64, 356–363
36. Enhance local production for local consumption, Solution Cluster 5.2.1, UNFSS 2021.
37. Nutritional resilience and production for self consumption of rural communities with backyard poultry, home gardens & farmers’ & community markets, 34, farmers' forum, India, Solution Cluster 5.2.1, UNFSS 2021.
38. National, regional, and worldwide estimates of low birthweight in 2015, with trends from 2000: a systematic analysis Hannah Blencowe, Julia Krasevec, Mercedes de Onis, Robert E Black, Xiaoyi An, Gretchen A Stevens, Elaine Borghi, Chika Hayashi, Diana Estevez, Luca Cegolon, Suhail Shiekh, Victoria Ponce Hardy, Joy E Lawn*, Simon Cousens*, Lancet Glob Health 2019 Published Online May 15, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ S2214-109X(18)30565-5
39. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Seattle, WA: IHME, 2018.
40. Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 GBD 2017 Diet Collaborators, Published Online April 3, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ S0140-6736(19)30041-8.
41. The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2021, United Nations.
42. Simchi-Levi: OM Forum—OM Research: From Problem-Driven to Data-Driven Research Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 16(1), pp. 2–10, 2014.
43. Multi-agent influence diagrams for representing and solving games ; Daphne Koller , and Brian Milch; Games and Economic Behavior 45 (2003) 181–221; www.elsevier.com/locate/geb
44. Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems, Walter Willett, Johan Rockström, Brent Loken, Marco Springmann, et al, Lancet 2019; 393: 447–92.
45. Mission Food System 2030: A Disruptive Transformation to Meet Sustainable Development Goals, Kameswararao Chiruvolu, January 2022. (attached).
Dr. Kameswararao Chiruvolu