It is indeed a very lively exchange of information! I think that this is a result of our desire to find solutions to the world's most pressing problems.
As far as I know, the highest confidence level for scientific researches is 99% and the lowest margin of error is 1%. This means that all researches, have the probability/chance that they can also be factually wrong. I believe we do need to consider this fact.I have never read or heard about a research that is 100% true all the time and I would be interested to know about it if there is any, with regards to this matter.
I. These are the following data for cereals and total agricultural production:
A. In my april6 post, I cited the March 6, 2015 ICCG webinar presentation and it’s link. To be more precise, I have attached a word file. I took a screen shot of the data presented by professor Alberto Garrido CEIGRAM (Research for the Management of Agricultural and Environmental Risks) Universidad Politecnica de Madrid. Here I can see, that the growth rate of cereals are changing and not steadily rising since 1961. Here is a direct link: http://www.iccgov.org/FilePagineStatiche/Files/EVENTS/Seminars/6march2015/Garrido_2015_FEEM_ICCG_Webinar_6_march_2015.pdf
D) FAO Document- “In recent years the growth rates of world agricultural production and crop yields have slowed. This has raised fears that the world may not be able to grow enough food and other commodities to ensure that future populations are adequately fed.”(http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/y3557e/y3557e03.htm)
II. Climate Change is one of the planetary boundaries that has been already exceeded. This means that it has a negative impact on the resilience of the earth system procecesses that could destabilize the earth, as a whole. This is according to the Planetary Boundaries Framework of Johan Rockstrom,et. al. "The Planetary Boundaries framework was first launched in 2009. Behind the framework lies over 50 years of international scientific effort to understand physical climate, geochemical and ecological processes and their driving forces"-http://www.stockholmresilience.org/download/18.6d8f5d4d14b32b2493577/14…
*The Ministry of the Environment of Finland, in cooperation with Sweden, Norway, Denmark, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Stockholm Resilience Centre (SRC), organized an international workshop “Planetary boundaries and environmental tipping points: What do they mean for sustainable development and the global agenda?” on 4-5 November 2013 in Geneva, Switzerland".-http://www.ym.fi/planetaryboundaries
Replies to Dr. Hector Malleta,
It is indeed a very lively exchange of information! I think that this is a result of our desire to find solutions to the world's most pressing problems.
As far as I know, the highest confidence level for scientific researches is 99% and the lowest margin of error is 1%. This means that all researches, have the probability/chance that they can also be factually wrong. I believe we do need to consider this fact.I have never read or heard about a research that is 100% true all the time and I would be interested to know about it if there is any, with regards to this matter.
I. These are the following data for cereals and total agricultural production:
A. In my april6 post, I cited the March 6, 2015 ICCG webinar presentation and it’s link. To be more precise, I have attached a word file. I took a screen shot of the data presented by professor Alberto Garrido CEIGRAM (Research for the Management of Agricultural and Environmental Risks) Universidad Politecnica de Madrid. Here I can see, that the growth rate of cereals are changing and not steadily rising since 1961. Here is a direct link: http://www.iccgov.org/FilePagineStatiche/Files/EVENTS/Seminars/6march2015/Garrido_2015_FEEM_ICCG_Webinar_6_march_2015.pdf
B.) Another is from IFPRI. The data for this is also in the word file. Link: http://www.ifpri.org/gfpr/2012/agricultural-productivity
C) Another is from International Journal of Rural Development- “OECD-FAO experts expect lower global agricultural production growth. Production short falls, price volatility and trade disruption remain a threat to global food security.”-http://www.rural21.com/english/news/detail/article/lower-global-agricultural-production-growth-expected-0000752/
D) FAO Document- “In recent years the growth rates of world agricultural production and crop yields have slowed. This has raised fears that the world may not be able to grow enough food and other commodities to ensure that future populations are adequately fed.”(http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/y3557e/y3557e03.htm)
II. Climate Change is one of the planetary boundaries that has been already exceeded. This means that it has a negative impact on the resilience of the earth system procecesses that could destabilize the earth, as a whole. This is according to the Planetary Boundaries Framework of Johan Rockstrom,et. al. "The Planetary Boundaries framework was first launched in 2009. Behind the framework lies over 50 years of international scientific effort to understand physical climate, geochemical and ecological processes and their driving forces"-http://www.stockholmresilience.org/download/18.6d8f5d4d14b32b2493577/14…
Here is a link to the updated version of the paper http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855
Some of organizations/people, that recognize/support the Planetary Boundaries Framework:
*WBCSD- http://www.wbcsd.org/work-program/capacity-building/sdmi/src.aspx
*IISD- On the 2009- year historical timeline :https://www.iisd.org/pdf/2012/sd_timeline_2012.pdf
* Kate Raworth- Author of Doughnut Economics-http://www.kateraworth.com/about/
*The Ministry of the Environment of Finland, in cooperation with Sweden, Norway, Denmark, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Stockholm Resilience Centre (SRC), organized an international workshop “Planetary boundaries and environmental tipping points: What do they mean for sustainable development and the global agenda?” on 4-5 November 2013 in Geneva, Switzerland".-http://www.ym.fi/planetaryboundaries