There is substantial potential for improving the transparency of the data basis of global estimates of food security. In particular, the Prevalence of Undernourishment-model of FAO is dependent on household survey data to estimate the distribution and inequality of caloric consumption in the population. Yet timely survey data are infrequently available for many countries. As witnessed in the 2020 China revision of estimates, which substantially reduced the number of estimated undernourished in China and globally (Cafiero et al 2020), this lack of survey data can have dire consequences for the exactitude and uncertainty of estimates.
The significant instability that can be observed in historical estimates requires transparency in the data basis for the estimates of the PoU (Iversen in prep). Yet FAO does not publicly list exactly what survey data its estimates are based on. Such opacity breeds mistrust and uncertainty as evidenced by Pogge (2016), and would be easy to remedy by being much more transparent about the data basis of PoU estimates.
This commenter has repeatedly reached out to FAO to get an oversight into the relevant household survey data, with no response forthcoming from the agency.
References:
Pogge (2016) The Hunger Games. Food Ethics 1(1).
Cafiero, Feng and Ishaq (2020) Methodological Note on New Estimates of the Prevalence of Undernourishment in China.
Iversen (in prep) Chronology of Global Hunger Estimation. Manuscript in preparation.
Г-н Thor Olav Iversen