Chapter 3 of the report of SADL is proposed to strengthen the analysis of climate change
Research on climate change may need to reflect the diversity of the results, which will be helpful for choosing the appropriate supportive policies. Trend of the impact of climate change on the increase of grain production in most areas of the world from is similar: from tropical to north temperate zone, the grain production changes from a reduction to an increase gradually, and the overall production keeps stable. Research team led by Prof. Xian Xin from China Agriculture University comes out with following results:
Xin et al. (2013) investigates the impacts of climate change on China’s grain output using rural household survey data. Their results indicate that the overall negative climate impacts on the PRC’s grain output range from -0.31% to -2.69% in 2030 and from -1.93% to -3.07% in 2050, under different emission scenarios. The impacts, however, differ substantially for different grain crops and different regions. The substantial regional differences will also induce changes in agricultural interregional trade pattern. Xin et al. (2015) investigate the climate change impacts on this trade pattern and their results indicate that Northwest, South, Central, and Northeast China will see increases in the outflows of agricultural products in 2030 and 2050. Conversely, outflows from East, North, and Southwest China will decrease.
References:
Xin Xian, Lin Tun, Liu Xiaoyun, Wan Guanghua, and Yongsheng Zhang (2013). The Impacts of Climate Change on the People’s Republic of China’s Grain Output—Regional and Crop Perspective, China Agricultural Economic Review, Vol. 5, No.4, pp.434-458
Xin Xian, Lin Tun, Liu Xiaoyun, Wan Guanghua, and Yongsheng Zhang (2015). Climate Change and Agricultural Interregional Trade Flows in the People’s Republic of China, China Agricultural Economic Review, Vol. 7, No.2, pp158-166
Fangquan Mei