Reponse to Political Outcome Document of ICN2
Personal information
Name: Dr. Peter Carter
Organization: Climate Emergency Institute
Location: Canada
Date: May 28, 2014
Email: petercarter46ATshaw.ca
N.B. I include below a key paragraph from the IPCC AR5 (2014) on food and one from the USDA assessment (2013).
It is good to see that the draft recognizes that global climate change is a major threat to nutrition and food security (item 8), but global climate change is not included anywhere else in the draft. It can only be assumed for planning that from now on, global climate climate is going to reduce food production, which will become the defining factor for food security and nutrition by mid century.
From now on increasing extreme weather events driven by global climate change will be the leading factor in an ongoing deepening food security crisis.
Most importantly projected volatility of US food production over the next few decades means volatile and incrasing world food prices.
I ask that the draft include a statement that emissions must immediately plateau and decline by 2020 in accordance with the RCP2.6 of the IPCC AR5 (the only scenario that limits warming to 2ºC), in order to minimize food production loss affecting the world and all regions. RCP2.6 stabilizes at just below 2ºC, at which temperature increase severe crop yield losses are projected. The US 2014 federal Climate Change Assessment projects that from mid century, US food production will decline. Crop declines are projected for most regions above 1.0ºC and all regions by 2ºC. The world’s best food producing regions in the northern hemisphere are now projected to be vulnerable to already committed global change. Please include that the IPCC AR5 assessment projections make climate change mitigation with adaptation essential to minimize damaging, disastrous to catastrophic food production impacts over the short, medium and long terms.
Impacts over the next three decades cannot be prevented as we are locked into this period by climate system inertia, and so the worst ever and increasing food security disasters must be prepared for. Without effective mitigation (emissions reductions) starting by 2020 we will be committing outrselves to future world food calamity of pregressive declines affecting all regions which will threaten the sustainability of civilization .
While starting adapation now is essential, it is unlikely to help in any sustained way without ongoing effective mitigation.
I include a key paragraph from the IPCC AR5 on food and one from the USDA assessment. Please note that the IPCC does not decide what is dangerous climate change or dangerous levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases and does not make recommendations. This is left up to other organizations to do.
IPCC WG2 TS P. 223. 3. Food production systems and food security
Without adaptation, local temperature increases of 1oC or more above preindustrial levels are projected to negatively impact yields for the major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) in tropical and temperate regions, although individual locations may benefit. With or without adaptation, climate change will reduce median yields by 0 to 2% per decade for the rest of the century, as compared to a baseline without climate change. These projected impacts will occur in the context of rising crop demand, projected to increase by about 14% per decade until 2050. Risks are greatest for tropical countries, given projected impacts that exceed adaptive capacity and higher poverty rates compared with temperate regions. Climate change will progressively increase inter-annual variability of crop yields in many regions.
p. 2 Key messages Climate Change and US Agriculture Assessment USDA September 2013 Projections for crops and livestock production systems reveal that climate change effects over the next 25 years will be mixed. Beyond mid century however changes in climate are expected to have overall detrimental effects on most crops and livestock.
Please note that the above is derived from climate crop model projections that do not capture many large adverse impacts, including increased weeds and pests, extreme weather events, and increased tropospheric ozone. They do not capture combinations of adverse impacts. Possible benefits of CO2 fertilization for temperate regions are projected to be modest and short lived, after which yields decline progressively with increased temperatures. CO2 benefit for nutrition is offset by reduction of crop nutrients. Potential yield benefit will be offset if not cancelled out by rising ground level ozone.
Respectfully submitted,
Peter Carter
Peter Carter