The future of food and agriculture - drivers and triggers for transformation

The FAO Liaison Office in Geneva (FAOLOG), in collaboration with the Agrifood Economics Division (ESA), organized an event titled "Coffee with FAO" at the UN Palais on 17 May 2023. The purpose of the event was to share and discuss the FAO flagship report titled "The Future of Food and Agriculture - Drivers and Triggers for Transformation (FOFA-DTT)” with staff and delegates from various UN Organizations based in Geneva.

After an introductory speech from the Director of FAOLOG, Dominique Burgeon, Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù, Senior Economist of ESA, delivered a comprehensive overview of the report's main findings. He began by discussing the essential steps of the corporate strategic foresight exercise (CFSE) process and related findings that fed into the FAO Strategic Framework 2022-31 and constitute the backbone of the FOFA-DTT report. Bellù proceeded highlighting the intricate connections and interdependencies between agrifood, socioeconomic, and environmental systems, along with the systemic drivers influencing agrifood systems, activities, and outcomes.

He specifically focused on the historical trends of key drivers shaping agrifood systems and resulting "weak signals", that are observed events or phenomena which offer insights into possible medium- to long-term futures. Drivers dissected include economic growth, savings and investment, agrifood prices, structural transformation (agricultural GDP and employment), agrifood trade and commodity dependence, and food security and nutrition. Bellù also provided an overview of four alternative paradigmatic scenarios to consider for the years 2030, 2050, and beyond: "More of the same" (MOS), "Adjusted future" (AFU), "Race to the bottom" (RAB), and "Trading off for sustainability" (TOS). To move from the current path of overwhelming difficulties in  in achieving Agenda 2030 towards sustainable and resilient agrifood systems, FOFA-DTT provides four triggers for transformation that represent domains likely to have important transformative impacts on agrifood systems: Improved governance at all levels, increased consumers (and citizens) awareness and critical thinking, bettered income and wealth distribution across and within countries, and innovative technologies and approaches. The extent to which these triggers are activated through appropriate strategies and policies, or inhibited, would determine the future pattern of agrifood systems.

In conclusion, Bellù emphasized the overarching message of the FAO flagship report FOFA-DTT, highlighting the fact that we, are still in time to avoid the collapse of agrifood, socioeconomic, and environmental systems. However, all stakeholders need to trade off short-term unsustainable achievements, wants and needs for long-term sustainability and resilience. Bellù concluded his presentation with a quote from Italian philosopher Antonio Gramsci from 1927, expressing his optimistic will to overcome any obstacles despite a pessimistic reality and outlook.

Following the presentation, an interactive discussion took place, providing an opportunity for participants to engage and exchange ideas.