Reference Date: 02-August-2024

Output of the main paddy crop estimated above average in 2024

Harvesting of the 2024 ongoing main season paddy crop, which accounts for more than half of the annual production, started in April and is expected to end in September. Production of the season is estimated at above-average levels, due to an expansion of the area sown, instigated by the year-on-year high price levels. The increase in plantings has been supported by availability of subsidized loans by the Banco de Reserva. In addition, favorable rainfall in key producing northern regions in the April-July 2024 period have provided conducive conditions for crops to be harvested in August and September.

Maize is produced all around the year and output for 2024 is expected to be above-average, mainly reflecting an increase in plantings driven by growing demand of yellow maize from the domestic feed industry.

Above-average expectations for minor paddy crop currently planted

Planting of the minor paddy crop of 2024 started in June and is expected to end in September. Due to rising year-on-year prices, the sown area is expected to exceed previous five-year average. Favourable weather conditions from the beginning of the planting period in June and the continued availability of subsidies to fertilizers and seeds are expected to have a positive impact on production. From August to November 2024, above-average rainfall amounts are forecast. Although abundant rainfall amounts are generally favourable for crop development, there is risk that they could foster pest infestations.

Rising import requirements for cereals in 2024/25

Cereal imports requirements for the 2024/25 marketing year July/June) are forecast at a slightly above average level.

The rising requirement is driven by growing demand for maize from the feeding sector and for wheat for food consumption, in line with the growing population of the country.

Prices of rice higher year-on-year as of June 2024

Retail rice prices started to rise in the second half of 2023 due to the combined effect of low domestic production and rising international prices. Prices have continued to increase during the first half of 2024. As of June 2024, prices of all qualities of rice were about 25 per cent above the previous year level, despite the improved supply from the main season harvest and higher-than-average import volumes. Prices of yellow maize have been stable in the first half of 2024 and, as of June 2024, they were 10 percent lower year-on-year due to decreasing international prices and high import levels in 2023/24. For the first six months of 2024, prices of black beans showed a stable trend and, as of June 2024, they were slightly higher year-on-year.

About 1 million people estimated to face acute food insecurity between May 2024 and August 2024

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, the number of people facing acute food insecurity is estimated at 1 million between May 2024 and August 2024, corresponding to about 9 per cent of the analysed population, down from 1.1 million between December 2023 and April 2024 and from 1.2 million in the previous year (between March 2023 and June 2023). The slight improvement reflects the increase in the 2024 cereal production as well as the increase in employment rates and households’ purchasing power.

Food inflation rates levels have been declining in the past ten months, from 8.7 percent in September 2023 to 4.2 percent in June 2024, thus reinforcing purchasing power of the vulnerable households and easing their access to food.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .