Reference Date: 13-March-2025

Cereal production in 2024/25 forecast at record level

Harvesting of the irrigated 2024/25 secondary dry season paddy crop, which accounts for about 30 percent of the annual output, is ongoing. According to official information, as of end-February 2025, the area planted reached a record level of 910 000 hectares, driven by attractive prices at planting time. Weather conditions have been favourable since the start of the cropping season last November and, together with an adequate supply of irrigation water, have had a positive effect on crop yields. Harvesting of the 2024/25 main wet season paddy crop, which accounts for about 70 percent of the annual output, finalized last February. Production is estimated at a record level, reflecting a price-driven expansion in plantings, while cumulative rainfall amounts between May and October 2024 were adequate to satisfy cereal crop water requirements, supporting yields. Some localized crop losses occurred in northwestern and southcentral areas due to dry weather conditions in May and June 2024 as well as in northeastern areas due to heavy rains and flooding in September 2024. Aggregate paddy production in 2024/25 is forecast at a record level of 14 million tonnes.

Planting of the 2024/25 secondary dry season maize crop, which accounts for about 20 percent of the annual output, is ongoing supported by favourable soil moisture conditions and harvesting will start in June. The area planted is forecast to be above the five-year average, due to strong demand by the local feed industry. Harvesting of the 2024/25 main wet season maize crop, which accounts for about 80 percent of the annual output, finalized last November and production is estimated at a record level of 1.4 million tonnes, mostly owing to large plantings. Aggregate maize production in 2024/25 is forecast at a record level of 1.7 million tonnes.

Exports of rice in 2025 forecast below last year’s high level

In calendar year 2025, rice exports are forecast at 2.6 million tonnes, down from the record level of 3.3 million tonnes shipped in 2024, but still an overall ample export level, reflecting ample exportable availability.

Domestic prices of rice higher year-on-year in January 2025

Wholesale prices of rice declined between October 2024 and January 2025, with the commercialization of the 2024 main harvest. However, as of January 2025, prices were about 10 percent higher year-on-year, underpinned by demand for domestic use and exports.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .