Reference Date: 08-July-2026

Abundant rainfall amounts support above‑average cereal production forecast in 2026

Harvesting of the 2026 winter wheat and barley crops started in May and is expected to be completed by late‑July. Dry weather conditions at the beginning of the season delayed planting operations and constrained early crop development especially in central and eastern provinces. However, abundant rainfall amounts from late November 2025 onwards restored soil moisture levels and replenished water reservoirs, supporting crop development throughout the growing season between January and April. Localized flooding in some northwestern areas had a minimal impact on the 2026 overall production which is forecast at 6.3 million tonnes, about 16 percent above the five‑year average, marking a recovery from consecutive drought‑affected harvests.

Wheat import requirements forecast at below‑average in 2026/27

Despite the country's heavy reliance on cereal imports to meet domestic consumption needs, wheat import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 5 million tonnes, about 15 percent below the five‑year average, reflecting the expected above‑average wheat harvest in 2026. In support of domestic wheat marketing, the government introduced a temporary import duty on wheat at 135 percent from 1 June to 31 July 2026.

Annual food inflation remained low in 2026

Annual food inflation remained subdued in early 2026. After declining steadily between October 2025 and February 2026, it increased slightly in March and April 2026 before easing again to about -0.8 percent in May 2026.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .