Reference Date: 03-June-2024

Below‑average outputs of 2024 minor maize crop and main wheat crop expected due to dry weather conditions

Harvesting of the 2024 minor season maize crop is ongoing and production is anticipated at a well below‑average level due to low plantings. According to official estimates, the planted area is 25 percent below the five‑year average as a result of the low availability of irrigation water in reservoirs at planting period in the key producing Sinaloa State, where maize is entirely cultivated under irrigation.

The 2024 main maize crop, to be harvested from November, is being planted. Although official forecasts are not available yet, the area planted is likely to be slightly below the average, reflecting lower year‑on‑year prices and current soil moisture deficits across the country. Mixed weather conditions are forecast between June and August, with below‑average rainfall amounts in northwestern region and wetter‑than‑average conditions in central‑eastern and southern regions. These sub-optimal conditions could have negative effects on crop emergence and vegetative development.

Harvesting of the 2024 main season wheat crop, which accounts for about 95 percent of the annual production, is ongoing and output is expected to be below the average. This is due to reduced plantings, nearly 15 percent below the average, as a result of below‑average rainfall amounts in the key producing northwestern areas during planting period at end‑2023.

Above‑average cereal import requirements anticipated in 2023/24 marketing year

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (October/September) are anticipated at 26.7 million tonnes, more than 10 percent above the five‑year average, mostly due to the high demand for yellow maize by the domestic feed industry, following the below‑average production in 2023.

Prices of black beans and rice higher year‑on‑year in April 2024

Prices of white maize showed mixed trends in the first four months of 2024, as unfavourable production prospects of the 2024 minor crop provided upward pressure on prices in some markets, while prices declined in others due to the commercialization of the 2023 main crop, harvested between October 2023 and January 2024. Maize prices in April 2024 were near or below their year‑earlier levels in most markets.

Following sustained increases since August 2023, prices of black beans declined in April 2024 due to the nearly‑completed harvest of the 2024 minor crop. However, prices in April 2024 were still more than 25 percent higher year‑on‑year, reflecting a tight domestic supply due to the low production in 2023.

Prices of rice have been increasing since August 2023 due to reduced domestic output in 2023 and lower year‑on‑year imports between August 2023 and February 2024 (latest available data). In April 2024, prices were 20 percent up from a year earlier. Higher year‑on‑year export prices in the United States of America, the major rice supplier to the country, also contributed to the elevated levels of domestic prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .