16 July 2024: seasonal precipitation predictions
Overview:
Since mid-March, the seasonal precipitation prediction for the past four months expected above-average
rainfall and favourable breeding conditions during the summer. Now all of the models have completely
reversed. The positive IOD phase is now negative and La Niña is likely to develop during the next few
months rather than El Niño. Nevertheless, normal to above-normal rains are expected during the northern
Sahel from Niger to Eritrea, across Arabia to Indo-Pakistan for August and September, and continuing during
October in Yemen. Mainly dry condition is anticipated in Mali and Mauritania. During the winter, dryness
will develop from October onwards along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden except in southeast Egypt, while
normal to above-normal rainfall may occur from November onwards in northwest Mauritania.
