Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak continued in Morocco with widespread groups of adults.

• Current situation: Several immature adult groups formed over widespread areas in Morocco. In Algeria, a few immature adult groups were found, together with isolated and scattered hoppers and adults. In Mauritania, isolated and scattered adults were observed, while groups were reported by locals early in the month. Isolated adults were seen in Iran. No locusts were reported elsewhere. 

• Control operations: Doubled in June (88 501 ha treated) compared to May (41 946 ha).

• Forecast: Adult groups may form small swarms in Morocco, where maturation may progress, and some mature groups may migrate towards the Oriental region and western Algeria, where breeding could continue in July. However, most groups may move southwards into Mauritania or other Sahelian countries, where summer breeding is expected to begin. 

Overview:

The dynamical models indicate that El Niño conditions are persisting, with a likelihood of becoming one of the strongest on record. Drier‑than‑normal conditions are expected in East Africa, the Red Sea area, and the Arabian Peninsula during July and August, while above‑normal rainfall is forecast in northern Africa. From September onwards, wetter conditions are expected to develop in association with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, expanding to widespread above‑normal rainfall across northern and eastern Africa and the Middle East by October. Drier‑than‑normal conditions are expected to persist in India until October. Gregarious breeding will conclude in Morocco and Algeria. Summer breeding will begin in Mauritania and, at a smaller scale, in other Sahelian areas in July. Breeding should continue in the Western Region during August and September, increasing the risk of outbreaks from September onwards.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert locust outbreak continued in #Morocco with widespread groups of hoppers and adults.
• Current situation: Several hopper groups and a few bands formed over widespread areas in Morocco, where numerous immature adult groups also developed. In #Algeria, a few immature adult groups were present, together with scattered hoppers and hopper groups. No locusts were reported elsewhere.
  Control operations: Increased in May (41 792 ha treated) compared to April (39 025 ha).
• Forecast: Fledging will continue in Morocco, leading to an increase in immature adult groups and small swarms. These will eventually mature and lay in suitable breeding areas, while most of them are expected to migrate to Algeria or Mauritania during June and July.
  

Overview:

The models indicate that the transition into El Niño conditions is progressing as expected, with this event likely to become one of the strongest on record. These conditions, together with a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, are expected to result in drier‑than‑normal conditions across the Horn of Africa, the southern Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan and India during the three coming months. Below‑normal rainfall is also forecast across the northern Sahel from Senegal to the Red Sea, while above‑normal rainfall is expected in northwestern Africa. From September onwards, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to favour above‑normal rainfall in East Africa during the autumn. Gregarious spring breeding will continue in Morocco and may extend into Algeria. Summer breeding may occur in atypical areas in the Western Region, increasing the risk of outbreaks from September onwards.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak continued in Morocco with further breeding.
• Current situation: Hopper groups and small bands appeared at many sites across Morocco, while breeding mature adult groups declined during the second half of the month; a few adult groups were observed breeding in Algeria. Only isolated locusts were detected in the Canary Islands. No locusts were reported elsewhere.
• Control operations: Increased in April (39 025 ha treated) compared to March (25 137 ha).
• Forecast: Hopper groups may continue developing in Morocco and appear in Algeria. New adult groups may appear and move northwards for further spring breeding, and southwards into Mauritania.

Overview:

Climate models expect a rapid transition to El Niño conditions in the Pacific in the coming month, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. These signals are likely to generate wetter‑than‑normal conditions across all regions in May, followed by dry conditions in the southern parts of the Central and Eastern Regions. The summer breeding areas of the Western Region may receive above‑normal rainfall in northern areas, particularly toward the end of summer, while drier‑than‑normal conditions are forecast in the Central and Eastern Regions. Small‑scale spring breeding is still possible in Tunisia, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Iran, and Pakistan. Gregarious spring breeding is likely to continue in Morocco and may extend into Algeria. Summer breeding in the Sahel may occur, with an increasing risk of outbreaks toward the end of summer.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak continued in Western Sahara and Morocco while spreading northwards.
• Current situation: Adult groups moved northward in Western Sahara and Morocco, where breeding increased; hopper groups and bands appeared in Morocco; a few adult groups reached Algeria. Some locusts were also detected in the Canary Islands. No locusts were reported elsewhere.
• Control operations: Decreased in March (25 137 ha treated) compared to February (34 564 ha).
• Forecast: Adult groups and small swarms may continue moving northward into Morocco and Algeria, where increasing breeding may produce new hopper groups and small bands.

Overview:

Climate models continue to indicate a rapid transition to El Niño in the Pacific by late spring, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. These signals are expected to generate wetter-than-normal conditions across all Regions during the spring. In summer, wet conditions may persist in the Western Region, while  drier-than-normal conditions are forecast for Eastern African, the Arabian Peninsula and the Eastern Region. Spring breeding is expected to remain small‑scale in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Egypt, Sudan, Iran, and Pakistan. In the Western Region, gregarious spring breeding is likely in Morocco and may extend into Algeria, and potentially later into Tunisia and Libya. Summer breeding in the Sahel could begin earlier than usual, increasing the risk of outbreaks toward the end of the summer if predicted rainfall patterns materialize.

Key points:

• Overview: The serious Desert Locust outbreak continued in Western Sahara and southern Morocco.
• Current situation: Adult groups increased and moved northward in Western Sahara and Morocco where breeding resumed; some adult groups reached the Canary Islands and Algeria. Some locusts were also detected in Mauritania, Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea. 
• Control and operations:  Decreased in February (34 564 ha treated) compared to January (47 358 ha).
• Forecasts: Adult groups and small swarms may continue moving northward into Morocco and Algeria where breeding may produce new hopper groups and small bands.

Overview:

Climate models continue to indicate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a rapid transition to El Niño in the Pacific over the coming months. These conditions are expected to increase rainfall across the Central and Eastern Regions during the spring. Tropical cyclones may develop over the Arabian Peninsula and will need to be closely monitored. Spring breeding in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Iran, and Pakistan is likely to begin on a small scale in March but may continue throughout the season. In the Western Region, models now forecast dry to normal conditions this spring across northwestern Africa. However, since gregarious breeding has resumed in Morocco, localized breedings are expected to persist through the end of winter and into spring, potentially extending into Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia.