18 March 2025: Seasonal precipitation predictions
Overview:
The latest seasonal dynamical models predict a change in northern Africa compared to last month. Consequently, the widespread above-normal rainfall during spring in Algeria and Libya from April to June is no longer indicated. Instead, precipitation will likely be normal or slightly dry in these regions. Dry conditions will persist across the Red Sea, the interior of the Arabian Peninsula, and the Horn of Africa, as well as southeastern Iran and southwestern Pakistan. For the summer, the models suggest wet conditions from July to August or September along the northern Sahel from Mali to Eritrea, extending further north to northern Sudan and southern Egypt, and along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border. The primary cause of this summer’s anomaly is a typical La Niña event.