22 October 2024: seasonal precipitation predictions
Overview:
The subseasonal dynamical models indicate below-normal rainfall in West Africa for November, while the
seasonal models may suggest the opposite. A weakening of La Niña is anticipated. The main change from
last month’s precipitation forecast is that wetter conditions are expected along the southern Red Sea, Gulf
of Aden, and northern Somalia during the rest of October and at least the first half of November according
to some of the subseasonal models. Dry conditions are likely to continue in East Africa and the Near East
throughout the winter, with the Arabian Peninsula likely becoming dry by January. As a result, only smallscale breeding is expected in the Central Region during winter, followed by perhaps a few places in the
Western, Central, and Eastern regions during the spring.