The FRA 1990 showed that forest land area has been expanding steadily by about 2 million has in a decade, and that in nearly all countries fellings are below, often well below, increment, leading to an accumulation of growing stock. For Europe as a whole in the early 1990s, every year fellings are about 197 million m3 less than net increment, causing growing stock to expand by nearly 1 % annually.
The scenarios presented here, which are the aggregate of national scenarios considered most likely by national experts, show that the trends apparent from FRA 1990 are expected to continue. For Europe as a whole, the difference between fellings and NAI is expected to be, on average over 200 million m3/year, every year between 1990 and 2040. This accumulation of growing stock will lead to an increase of nearly 50%, or 9.5 billion m3, to 29.4 billion m3 in 2040, despite an increase of 70 million m3 (19%) in removals.
Growing stock per hectare is also expected to increase from about 142 to 199 m3/ha. In central Europe and some EU countries, the average growing stock per hectare is expected to exceed 400 m3/ha by 2040.
Naturally, all scenarios depend for their credibility on the credibility of the underlying assumptions, about forest policy, about costs, competitivity, markets, and management objectives as well as other factors. Unfortunately, the policy assumptions for these scenarios are not laid out in detail or, in some cases, (especially when they are the result of a secretariat estimate), not at all. This is one aspect which should receive the highest priority at later stages of the ETTS V process, notably the meeting on the policy context in June 1994.
However, from the information now available, it appears that the scenarios presented in this working paper are basically “steady as she goes”, and do not assume major changes in the wood supply potential of the forest, either negative (e.g. heavy forest damage, large increases in forest reserves where wood harvesting is forbidden or severely limited), or positive (e.g. very widespread afforestation of agricultural land, large energy plantations). The former would tend to bring fellings and increment (in exploitable forest) more into balance, but the latter, under very serious consideration at the highest policy levels, would tend to exacerbate the over supply of wood in Europe.
It is not possible at present to discuss the overall supply/demand balance for roundwood in Europe without detailed scenarios for demand for forest products, recycling, trade etc., but the trend apparent from the roundwood supply scenarios appears marked enough to make it possible to identify already certain strategic choices before the managers of Europe's forests. How is the accumulation of growing stock and wood production potential to be used? Should it be used for a relatively small increase in removals and a gradual build up of growing stock per hectare, probably linked with greater priority to non-wood functions? Or should removals be increased significantly either to satisfy new markets (to be created by sophisticated marketing), or to substitute for less environmentally friendly raw materials or even forest products imports from other continents? Or should much larger areas be taken out of wood production or higher priority given to non production management objectives? And in what economic and social environment could any of the above be achieved, given that wood sales are at present, and for the foreseeable future, the most important source of income for practically all forest owners, public and private, and that wood prices in the long run are determined, or at least constrained, by the global supply/demand balance for wood and forest products?
