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| food outlook | |
| No. 1 | Rome, April 2004 |
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Cereal Import BillCereal import bill to rise in 2003/04 The value of the world cereal import bill in 2003/04 is expected to approach US$38 billion, up 2 percent from 2002/03 and the highest since 1996/97. Although world imports of cereals are forecast to decline by around 10 million tonnes in 2003/04, higher international prices and a steep increase in ocean freight rates are expected to keep up the overall cost of cereal imports. In addition, food aid in the form of cereals is expected to decline in 2003/04 which would also raise import costs for those food-aid recipient countries that need higher commercial purchases to meet their import requirements. At the same time, cereal export subsidies appear to be of no importance in 2003/04. The largest exporter, the United States, is not subsidizing cereal exports and the EU, a major wheat exporter, has sharply lowered its exports while not making any use of restitutions as a result of tight supplies and high internal prices. In the LIFDCs1/, the total cereal import bill could remain as high as in the previous season, at the aggregate level, and on a regional basis within this group. Similarly, costs of imports by type of cereals (i.e. wheat, coarse grains and rice) are also likely to remain unchanged from the previous season. The combined cereal import bill of the Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) and the Net-Food Importing Developing Countries (NFIDCs) is forecast to decline by US$400 million to US$7.7 billion in 2003/04. The decrease is mostly driven by the anticipated smaller import requirements in several countries. The most significant declines, in value terms, are anticipated in Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Morocco, Tunisia, Zambia Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Peru. By contrast, the cost of cereal imports are expected to increase in many other countries, especially Egypt, Kenya, Tanzania, Jordan, Pakistan and Yemen. Changes in Cereal Import Bill of LIFDCs by Region and Commodity
Trends in Cereal Import Bills 1/
Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.
1/ The same countries may appear in more than one special country grouping. For definitions of country groupings see the Statistical Note on the last page of this report.
2/ Based on the per unit cost of total imports.
1. For definitions of the special country and economic grouping, see the Statistical Note on the last page of this report. |
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