3. MARKETS FOR AQUACULTURE

3.1 PRESENT SUPPLIES

Aquaculture, including production from freshwater culture-based fisheries, currently contributes 4.8% to the total production of fish in Greece. Production is based for the most part on extensive methods in freshwater and brackishwater, and intensive methods in freshwater. Intensive production in marine waters is a relatively recent development.

For 1986, levels of production from aquaculture were as follows:

Source: Fisheries Section, Agricultural Bank of Greece

3.2 FUTURE SUPPLIES

Aquaculture in Greece can be expanded and the official target of 20 000 t by the year 2000 is realistic. In the shorter term, planned investments are likely to produce increases from the current 7 000 t to approximately 14 000 t/year by 1992 (Source: National Plan).

The composition of this projected increase in tonnage is likely to be as follows:

There are also plans to establish the intensive cultivation of shrimps in Greece, but this is at a very early stage of development and it is not clear at this stage if this form of cultivation will be commercially viable. At any rate, significant levels of production are not likely to be established before 1992.

3.3 MARKET CONDITIONS FOR INDIVIDUAL SPECIES

Although the general market conditions suggest that there is room for significant increases in local production, each of the species being developed has its own particular problems and potentials. These have to be analysed before the market's capacity to absorb the new specific forms of production can be assessed.

General price trends for aquaculture species are shown in Table 3. Prices are from quayside sales at controlled auctions for 1980 and 1986 and the increase are compared with what would be expected by applying the general inflation rates for the period.

As can be seen in the following table, prices for most species have not been rising over the period as fast as general price inflation, with the exception of shrimp. Prices for direct sales to supermarkets obtained by the leading intensive sea bass and sea bream operator (see below) confirm this general trend:

Cephalonian Fisheries Ltd., Selling Prices 1985–1986:

Table 3

TARGET SPECIES FOR AQUACULTURE DEVELOPMENT

Quayside Prices, Actual and Expected, 1980 and 1986

Source: Etanal S.A.

Average annual rate of inflation, 1980–1986, 25%

Reliable data for prices of cultivated mussels are not available but the reported price of Dr 90/kg in 1987 is in line with prices being obtained for high quality mussels in northern Europe.

As can be seen from the following sections, the future market prospects for the different species under development are influenced by highly varied regional, national and international factors. In determining marketing and general development strategies, these factors have to be clearly understood and constantly monitored.

Any increased aquaculture production will be subject to competition from existing and future production from capture fisheries in Greece and from capture fisheries and aquaculture in other Mediterranean countries. The capacity of the industry to expand will also be limited by both national and international markets' ability to absorb the increased production.

Tables 4 to 6 give some estimation of this likely competition and market capacity. (Estimates are based on those provided at the ADCP/MEDRAP Workshop on Markets for the prime Mediterranean species, ADCP/REP/87/29, and the FAO Yearbook of Fisheries Statistics.)

The general point to be made about the species being selected for aquaculture development in Greece is that the levels of international trade are, with the exception of mussels, relatively low. This feature of the markets is in contrast to the situation enjoyed by the successful salmon and tropical shrimp cultivation industries where levels of trade based on traditional wild supplies had reached several hundreds of thousands of tonnes annually before supplies from commercial cultivation entered the market. The major implications of this are that the new production in Greece is more likely to face problems of over-supply at a very much earlier stage in its development and that expansion of the industries will require stimulation and growth in demand in both domestic and export markets if viable price levels are to be maintained.

Table 4

PRESENT AND PROJECTED LEVELS OF PRODUCTION AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE (t/year)

¹ Estimates for other Mediterranean countries - ADCP/MEDRAP Workshop

Table 5

MAIN IMPORTING COUNTRIES
(t/year)

¹ Estimates for other Mediterranean countries - ADCP/MEDRAP Workshop

Table 6

COMPETITION IN EXPORT MARKETS - MAIN EXPORTERS
(t/year)

¹ Estimates for other Mediterranean countries - ADCP/MEDRAP Workshop

The scenario for sea bass and sea bream illustrates this potential problem. Eleven countries in the Mediterranean region are known to be developing cultivation of these species with the likely result that supplies by 1992 will be more than four times the present levels. Present consumption levels are low and the species is not known in the stronger northern European and North American economies.

The suggestion has been made (ADCP/MEDRAP Workshop) that these species could replace salmon in prime markets in, for example, the south of France. However, while this may indeed be a sensible strategy for future development, it also means that bass and bream farmers will be drawn into competition with the more efficient salmon industry where current production costs are less than 70% of those in the present intensive bass and bream industry in Greece.

It would seem clear that, despite the present healthy marketing position for bass and bream farmers, there is a risk of over-supply of these species in the relatively constrained present markets. The markets for these species should be carefully analysed and continuously monitored and marketing development initiatives should be considered.

France, Belgium and Italy import substantial quantities of mussels, and these countries are within acceptable range for exports of live products from Greece. These markets should be able to absorb the relatively modest increases in Greek production and thereby compensate for the weak demand which exists for mussels within Greece. However, if the local industry is to be successful in northern Europe, and within Greece itself, there will have to be substantial improvements in quality control with proper depuration facilities and practices established.

The projected increases for mullet production in Greece are modest and the species is not priced at “luxury” levels. It would seem highly likely, therefore, that the increased tonnage will be easily absorbed by the domestic market.

The existing markets for eel production are almost entirely export and are likely to remain so. Production is projected to increase from 850 t to 1 450 t by 1992 but increases from other Mediterranean countries in the same period are estimated at about 2 400 t and this will be competing in the same markets of Federal Republic of Germany, Italy and Netherlands. There is a risk, therefore, that the limits of the established markets may be reached in the near future, and the development of preserved products and preparations should receive some early attention.

The aquaculture species with the most difficult marketing problems are without doubt the freshwater species of trout and carp. Most consuming countries are self-sufficient in supplies and the levels of international trade are very low in comparison with the total production. In Greece there is an additional problem arising from the low level of demand for freshwater products in the southern regions of the country. Furthermore, the local industry has traditionally been highly fragmented and poor quality control standards have in the recent past caused major decreases in consumption.

The projected increases in production will depend on progress being achieved in the organization of producers, improvements in standards of quality control and the successful development of products which can gain consumer acceptability in the southern regions of the country and abroad. While these would appear to be major obstacles to the further development of freshwater aquaculture, some success has been achieved in the past year or two in the Ioannina area where a significant part of the national production is based.

The lessons learned from this experience should be more widely applied and the authorities should place a high priority on the organization of producers and product development initiatives in this area of production.