The following table gives the provisonal capital costs for the establishment of the project broken down by main project component and by year of expenditure, starting 1989. A more detailed cost list is given in Appendix A5.1.
CAPITAL COSTS (LT × 1 000)
| 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | Total | ||
| 1. | Electricity | ||||
| - line, transformer, E.G. | 133 500 | ||||
| - farm network | 20 000 | 153 500 | |||
| 2. | Sea dikes and lagoon mouth | ||||
| - seawater intake | 60 103 | ||||
| - lagoon fish barrier | 18 580 | ||||
| - lagoon outlet dikes and channel | 101 400 | 180 083 | |||
| 3. | Main earthworks | ||||
| - inlet channels | 35 792 | ||||
| - ponds, dikes, channels (semi-intensive) | 329 664 | 365 456 | |||
| 4. | Other water systems | ||||
| - brackishwater intake | 3 402 | ||||
| - mixing/pumping reservoirs | 9 952 | ||||
| - intensive rearing tanks | 191 799 | ||||
| - monks, pipes and grates | 20 000 | 225 153 | |||
| 5. | Buildings (including furniture) | ||||
| - hatchery | 317 000 | ||||
| - Directorate | 20 000 | ||||
| - social building | 108 400 | ||||
| - technical service building | 45 900 | ||||
| - experts'/visitors' houses | 156 000 | ||||
| - watchmen | 5 000 | ||||
| - E.G. shelter | 2 060 | 654 360 | |||
| 6. | Equipment | ||||
| - pumps | 230 000 | 115 000 | |||
| - hatchery equipment | 267 000 | ||||
| - laboratory equipment | 36 700 | ||||
| - office/didactic equipment | 37 000 | ||||
| - special equipment | 5 000 | 121 850 | 96 000 | ||
| - vehicles | 70 000 | 122 000 | 1 100 550 | ||
| 7. | Contingencies (10%) | 152 319 | 94 491 | 21 100 | 267 910 |
| Total | 1 675 507 | 1 039 405 | 232 100 | 2 947 012 |
OPERATING COSTS (LT × 1 000)
( ) in brackets: see Appendix A5.2
| 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | Total | ||
| 1. | Overheads/fixed costs | |||||
| 1.1 | Personnel (1) | 41 255 | 107 263 | 139 443 | 90 638 | 378 599 |
| 1.2 | Maintenance (3) | 14 735 | 29 470 | 44 205 | ||
| 1.3 | Administration (4) | 20 000 | 20 000 | 20 000 | 60 000 | |
| 1.4 | Training (5) | 83 500 | 64 000 | 147 500 | ||
| 2. | Variable costs | |||||
| 2.1 | Feed (2) | 70 000 | 247 600 | 605 200 | 922 800 | |
| 2.2 | Power (6) | 12 300 | 86 655 | 113 530 | 212 485 | |
| 2.3 | Packing/Distribution (7) | 2 250 | 159 000 | 161 250 | ||
| 3. | Miscellaneous/contingencies 10% | 14 355 | 48 850 | 107 664 | 9 064 | 179 933 |
| Total | 157 910 | 610 853 | 1 238 307 | 99 702 | 2 106 772 |
All estimates are based on unit prices of early 1988 and no inflation has been allowed for.
The main source of unit prices is the Provisional Directorate of the Ministry of Agriculture in Antalya (Project and Statistics Division). Some prices have been collected also at the Directorate of the Turkish Electricity Company (TEK) and at the Regional Directorate of Harbours in Antalya. When necessary, especially for specialized equipment which will probably have to be imported), Italian prices have been applied, at prevailing exchange rates.
Operating costs for the implementation of the project are given in the table. The following main assumptions were made in estimating these costs:
Project implementation time:
operation starting time, third trimester 1989
end of first production crop (sea bass and sea bream at market size) by the end of 1991
Personnel employment: calculated over 3 years and inflation rate of 30% considered (as per project document)
For all other operating costs no inflation rate has been applied and costs are based on early 1988 prices
Feed to be purchased for the first two years of operation. In the meantime, feasibility and detailed cost of an own-feed preparation based on local resources should be assessed by specialist (nutritionist)
For training costs, the same budget has been allocated as per project document (GOT and UNDP contributions)
Neither depreciation nor interest costs have been included.
The following table gives the total costs of the project and provisional calculation of the GOT contribution required. As already stated, any allowance for inflation is to be added (costs based on early 1988 prices):
| LT × 1 000 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 |
| Capital costs | 1 675 507 | 1 039 405 | 232 100 |
| Operating costs | 157 910 | 610 853 | 1 238 307 |
| Total costs | 1 833 417 | 1 650 258 | 1 470 407 |
| UNDP contribution* | 195 750 | 73 500 | 54 000 |
| GOT contribution | 1 637 667 | 1 576 758 | 1 416 407 |
As far as the mission could assess, no significant market exists at present in the local area for fresh sea bass, sea bream and shrimp. It is therefore difficult to forecast future income from local sales from the project; however, some assumptions can be proposed:
The market does not currently exist because there is no offer of these species from fisheries; it is thus supply-limited
Tourism creates a very high demand, especially for these high quality marine species. High potential is therefore existing for market development in the area
Most probably, considering fish prices encountered in the restaurants during the mission (for lower quality species), selling prices could reach those levels applying in Italy (more than LT 20 000/kg)
Any excess of production which could not be sold locally could be exported to Italy or other Mediterranean markets (LT 15 000–20 000/kg)
From 1991, as soon as production and sales start on a yearly basis, the balance between operating costs and income from sales should be expected to be positive.
