FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2 - August 2002 p.31

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   ETHIOPIA

Area:976 680 sq km
Climate:Northern coastal area and lowlands in south and east are semi-arid to arid; rest of country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter.
Population:66.5 million (2002 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$100 (2000)
Specific characteristics of the country:Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics:Land-locked country, roads inadequate
Major foodcrops:Maize, teff, barley, sorghum, wheat, pulses, enset (false banana)
Marketing year:January/December; Lean season: August-November
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:69 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Despite a favourable onset of the 2002 secondary “belg” season rainfall and consequent optimistic crop prospects, its poor distribution and early withdrawal has created a rather alarming food situation in several parts of the country. The belg crop accounts for some 10 percent of total grain production but in some areas it provides most of the annual grain production. The main “meher” rainy season is also off to a poor start with the important July rainfall well below normal. Heavy rains were mainly confined to small areas in the western highlands, although moderate to heavy showers hit parts of north-central towards the end of July.

In response to this alarming situation the Government has launched a special alert on 12 July. Of immediate concern are Afar and Kereyu pastoralists in the east and north-eastern parts of the country. Large number of livestock deaths and unusual migrations in search of water and pasture were reported. Other areas of concern include, low lands of Bale and Hararghe in Oromia Region, and Shinile, Fik, Dagahbour, and Jijiga Zones in Somali Region. The sharp fall in prices following the bumper 2001 main “meher” season is now reversed with sharp rises reported in parts. The number of people in need of emergency food aid requirements in 2002, estimated earlier at some 5.2 million people, has been revised upwards to more than 8.5 million people. An Emergency Operation was jointly approved in May 2002 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to 2.1 million small scale farmers and drought-affected pastoralists, worth US$51.1 million for a period of 12 months (1 April 2002 to 31 March 2003).

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2002 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

 WheatRiceCoarse grainsTotal
     Previous five years average production1 211-7 2308 441
     Previous five years average imports6971358768
2002 Domestic Availability1 800-7 5279 327
     2001 Production (rice in paddy terms)1 400-7 4278 827
     2001 Production (rice in milled terms)1 400-7 4278 827
     Possible stock drawdown400-100500
2002 Utilization2 060157 5529 627
     Food use1 920156 5078 442
       of which: local purchase requirement5-195200
     Non-food use140-8951 035
     Exports or re-exports--150150
     Possible stock build up----
2002 Import Requirement2601525300
     Anticipated commercial imports11015-125
     Food aid needs150-25175
Current Aid Position    
     Food aid pledges115125140
       of which: delivered43-2467
     Donor-financed purchases5-27
       of which: for local use5-27
                        for export----
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year)29098127
Indexes    
     2001 Production as % of average:   105
     2002 Import requirement as % of average:   39

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