FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2 - August 2002 p.37

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  KENYA

Area:570 000 sq km
Climate:North-east is semi-arid to arid; mountainous central and south-western areas have two rainy seasons: March-May and November-December.
Population:31.61 million (2002 estimate), GNP per caput US$350 (2000)
Specific characteristics of the country:Low-income food-deficit country; regular importer and occasional exporter of grain.
Logistics:Good port (Mombasa) and extensive rail and road network. Gateway to Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda
Major foodcrops:Maize, wheat, pulses, roots and tubers
Marketing year:October/September; Lean season: June-July
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:56 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Prospects for the 2002 main “long rains” season crops have deteriorated following an early end to long season rains. Earlier optimistic crop prospects based on normal rainfall forecasts were dampened by actual erratic rains and some key maize growing areas in the Rift Valley Province have received poor rains. However, the maize harvest in Western and Nyanza provinces, with the exception of some flooded areas, is expected to be normal to above normal. Early estimates of the long rains maize crop indicate an output of about 1.89 million tonnes compared to 2.32 million tonnes in 2001.

Unusually heavy rains in several previously drought affected pastoralist areas have improved overall food supply prospects. However, continued food security concerns are reported in the districts of Mandera, Moyale, southern parts of Tana River, West Pokot, Koibatek, Marakwet and Baringo. An Emergency Operation was jointly approved in April 2002 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to 1.26 million drought-affected people, worth US$36.26 million for a period of 6-1/2 months (15 April to 31 October).

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2001/02 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

 WheatRiceCoarse grainsTotal
     Previous five years average production230522 3572 639
     Previous five years average imports556859201 561
2001/02 Domestic Availability250373 0893 376
     2001 Production (rice in paddy terms)230552 9393 224
     2001 Production (rice in milled terms)230362 9393 205
     Possible stock drawdown201150171
2001/02 Utilization7901773 4894 456
     Food use7571553 0793 991
       of which: local purchase requirement--100100
     Non-food use3321400454
     Exports or re-exports--1010
     Possible stock build up----
2001/02 Import Requirement5401404001 080
     Anticipated commercial imports470140200810
     Food aid needs70-200270
Current Aid Position    
     Food aid pledges38-74111
       of which: delivered38-74111
     Donor-financed purchases--2121
       of which: for local use--2020
                        for export--11
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year)24597126
Indexes    
     2001 Production as % of average:   122
     2001/02 Import requirement as % of average:   69

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