FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2 - August 2002 p.55

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  SOUTH AFRICA

Area:1.22 million sq km
Climate:Sub-tropical with rains concentrated in the summer months (November-April); occasional snow in winter over higher parts of plateau and Cape ranges; an average of 120 days frost in the interior plateau
Population:41.35 million (2002 estimate); GNP per caput US$3 020 (2000)
Specific characteristics of the country:Normally net food exporter, notably maize
Logistics:Adequate port, rail and road facilities
Major foodcrops:Maize, wheat
Marketing year:May/April; Lean season: February-April
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:54 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Harvest of the 2002 coarse grains is completed. Final official production forecast of the 2002 maize crop have been revised upwards to 9.09 million tonnes, which is 22 percent above the below-average level of the previous year. The increase in production reflects a rise of 4 percent in the area planted and favourable weather conditions in the main growing areas. Output of sorghum is estimated at 197 000 tonnes, 9 percent higher than in 2001 despite. Despite this year’s good maize harvest, the available exportable surplus is not expected to meet the increased import needs of other countries of the sub-region, affected by dry conditions during the 2001/02 cropping season. Output of the 2002 wheat crop, to be harvested from October, is forecast at 2.298 million tonnes, 8 percent below last year’s level reflecting lower plantings and yields.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2002/03 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

 WheatRiceCoarse grainsTotal
     Previous five years average production2 17829 59611 776
     Previous five years average imports130-1 1661 296
2002/03 Domestic Availability2 348-9 55311 901
     2002 Production (rice in paddy terms)2 298-9 34811 646
     2002 Production (rice in milled terms)2 298-9 34811 646
     Possible stock drawdown50-205255
2002/03 Utilization2 748-10 17912 927
     Food use2 520-4 6187 138
       of which: local purchase requirement----
     Non-food use98-4 5414 639
     Exports or re-exports130-1 0201 150
     Possible stock build up----
2002/03 Import Requirement400-6261 026
     Anticipated commercial imports400-6261 026
     Food aid needs----
Current Aid Position    
     Food aid pledges----
       of which: delivered----
     Donor-financed purchases--1919
       of which: for local use----
                        for export--1919
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year)61-112173
Indexes    
     2002 Production as % of average:   99
     2002/03 Import requirement as % of average:   79

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