Estimates for potential supplies of valuable tropical hardwoods grown in plantations were made based on FAO data for industrial plantations derived by FAO (2000). The assumptions and methodology for these conservative estimates are given in Appendix 2. The base tables are in Appendices 3 and 4. These estimates are made for the three main species, teak, mahogany and rosewood and for two assumed rotation lengths, 50 and 70 years. The trends up to year 2020 should be valid as the trees are already planted, although the estimates themselves are rough (Table 5).
Table 5: Yield projections - valuable hardwood plantations
|
Total Area (1995 - 103 ha) |
Age (1995 - Years) |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
||
|
103 m3 |
||||||
|
722 |
5 |
|
|
|
||
|
1 053 |
10 |
|
|
|
||
|
679 |
15 |
|
|
179 756 |
||
|
248 |
20 |
|
|
69 995 |
||
|
136 |
25 |
|
35 927 |
40 529 |
||
|
101 |
30 |
|
28 590 |
31 712 |
||
|
54 |
35 |
14 382 |
16 225 |
17 751 |
||
|
22 |
40 |
6 221 |
6 900 |
7 463 |
||
|
11 |
45 |
3 405 |
3 725 |
3 990 |
||
|
2.6 |
50 |
801 |
867 |
921 |
||
|
1 |
³ 55 |
437 |
468 |
494 |
||
|
3 031.6 |
- |
25 246 |
92 702 |
352 611 |
||
|
Total Yield ³ 50 years. |
4 643 |
23 125 |
72 241 |
|||
|
Yield less thinnings |
2 322 |
11 563 |
36 121 |
|||
|
Yield ³ 70 years |
0 |
468 |
4 911 |
|||
|
Yield less thinnings |
0 |
234 |
2 456 |
|||
NB: Due to rounding offs, sums may not tallyThe three main species, teak, Swietenia and Dalbergia are concentrated in four main regions. These are Africa (mainly Nigeria and Sudan for teak), Asia (mainly Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Philippines for all three species), “Other Oceania” (mainly Fiji for Swietenia) and Central America (mainly Costa Rica for teak).
Table 5 illustrates that any significant increase in supplies from plantations of these valuable species would be felt from the year 2020 onwards (i.e. after 20 years) and only if the rotation is reduced to below 70 years. Otherwise any impact would be realised much later as has been speculated in the literature.
The results obtained must be interpreted in the light that the derived age-class distribution, areas and growth rates may be different from reality. Better estimates may be obtained when more realistic data becomes available.
