4. THE FUTURE

4.1. Supply and Demand
4.2. Future Developments and their Implications

4.1. Supply and Demand

In the absence of more recent projections applicable for the whole country, most of the information given here have been adapted from MPFS (1988). Supply and demand situation for fuelwood, timber and fodder have been considered here. Table 7 shows the projected biomass fuel (including agricultural residue, dung and fuelwood) supply and consumption based on current trends.

Table 7: Projected biomass fuel supply and consumption ('000 tonnes)

Zone	1985	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010
Fuelwood	7,271	7,478.1	8,451.8	9,294	10,382.3	12,212
Dung	991	1,149.2	1,257.3	13.9	1,354.5	1,391
Agricultural residue	939	1,041.0	1,162.8	1,613	1,757.5	1,905
Total supply	9,201	9,668.3	10,871.9	12,146	13,494.3	15,508
Total consumption	11,306	12,632.0	13,967.7	15,197	16,193.8	16,935
Deficit/Surplus	-2,150	-2,963.7	-3,095.8	-3,051	-2,699.5	-1,427
% of consumption	-19	-23.5	-22.2	-20	-16.7	-3

Adapted from MPFS (1988).

Overall fuelwood surpluses will not be attained in the country under the current trends assumptions even when its projected plantations, managed natural forests and private tree farms are in full production.

Table 8 shows the projected timber supply and demand based on the trends of 1985. It shows deficit throughout the projected period. However, if the forests of Terai are managed for production forestry in place of today's protection approach, the situation could be reversed. In this projection, the production of community forest areas was not considered. Community forestry together with private forestry will also be a significant source of timber in the years to come.

Table 8: Projected timber supply and demand based on 1985 trends ('000 m³)

Year	Supply	Demand
1985	884.5	1,132.8
1990	1,014.1	1,510.2
1995	1,183.1	2,005.3
2000	1,355.8	2,506.7
2005	1,609.4	2,881.9
2010	2,212.2	3,250.6

Adapted from MPFS (1988)

The projections given in table 9 shows an optimistic scenario with regard to the fodder supply and demand. With increased production from community forest areas and private trees, this projection is expected to be further improved. It has been estimated that roughly 50% of the fodder supply comes from farmlands.

Table 9: Projected fodder balance ('000 tonnes)

Year	Supply	Demand
1985	6,582.1	6,086.0
1990	6,823.2	6,386.6
1995	7,249.3	6,767.0
2000	7,885.1	7,236.7
2005	8,776.6	7,807.4
2010	10,381.6	8,493.1

Adapted from MPFS (1988).

4.2. Future Developments and their Implications

Like elsewhere in the region, Nepal's forestry sector is expected to face significant challenges in the years to come. Increasing population will continue to exert pressure on the forest areas. Due to pressing problems in every other sector of the economy, the allocation of budget to the forestry sector cannot be expected to rise significantly.

At present Nepal's forests are considered less as a source of revenue and more as a development activity. There has been persuasion from the donor community, particularly World Bank and FINNIDA, to manage the forests of the Terai as a source of government revenue through production forestry and timber export. A major shift towards considering;, the forest resource as a source of government revenue is not likely in the near future. The ban on export of logs and timber will continue for some time to come.

Private planting of Dalbergia sissoo, particularly in the Terai, will continue to be popular. People buying shares in commercial tree plantations will also increase. This activity will generate public interest as environmental consideration becomes a concern for more and more people.

The timber sector outlook will see more products from private forestry supplying the needs particularly for the furniture industry. More wood preservation plants are expected to come up as less used species will have to be utilized as substitutes for the better species now used. Future trend of timber utilization is expected to shift from big dimension logs to smaller logs, commercially well-known timber species to lesser-known species and solid wood to reconstituted woods.

With respect to the forest-based industrial scenario, the industries are likely to request the Department of Forest for leasing out the government forest land for leasehold forestry. Due to the lack of khair, some katha mills will close down and the few survivors will start planting khair on the land leased from the government.

It is envisaged that more intensive forest management will be carried out in the coming years, particularly with the increasing emphasis now being placed on sustainable management of all forest resources. In accordance with Agenda 21, (especially Chapter 11 - Combating Deforestation and Chapter 15 - Conservation of Biological Diversity) Nepal will direct its efforts towards achieving its stated goals.

It is also envisaged that international bilateral and multi-lateral donors will continue to support various projects in the forestry sector. Pressure from the donor community will continue for managing the forest resources of the Terai to generate revenues for the government. The supply of products will exceed the demand of the domestic market and the present export ban will have to be lifted. Accordingly, the policy of conservative forestry will be gradually replaced by production forestry. The regional market will benefit from the diversity of value added forest products from Nepal. Efforts will increase in the exchange of information and experts, transfer of technology, training and education, and collaborative research among the countries of the region.

Due to the lack of transportation, many forest areas in the mountains cannot be brought under profitable commercial management. Cable logging and the use of helicopters are technical solutions but the cost involved would be prohibitively high for a country like Nepal.

Community forestry will continue to be the major focus of the forestry sector particularly in the mountains. More and more government forest areas will be handed over to the Forest User Groups as community forests. The recent experience is encouraging and suggests possibilities of rejuvenating the once dwindling forest resources of the mountains. Forest products from the community forests will also gradually enter the market as the FUGs become more entrepreneurial. Together with this development, more instances of conflict will begin to surface and the field forestry officials will increasingly have to play the role of conflict managers. It is also expected that the federation of FUGs will be more strongly organized at district as well as central levels. As a result, they will have a strong say in shaping the government policy on community forestry.

It is expected that more areas will come under the protected area system especially the areas of middle mountains that are rich in biodiversity. Income from ecotourism and recreation will continue to provide sizeable revenue for the government. More tourists from the region will visit Nepal's National Parks and Wildlife Reserves.

Soil Conservation Service will be provided to all the districts of the country and critical sub-watersheds will be managed in an integrated way.

To sum up, the forestry sector scenario is envisaged to be as follows:

· Intensive commercial forestry in the Terai (both government and privately managed) thus flooding the market with products and the government will have to rethink its policy of export ban of wood.

· Community forestry will start to market forest products and services; conflict and their resolution will be a major issue.

· Leasehold forestry by forest-based industries.

· Soil conservation service will be extended to all the districts of Nepal.

· More areas will come under the protected area system of national parks, wildlife reserves and conservation areas. These areas will become popular ecotourism destinations.