FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.1, April 2002 ETHIOPIA 17

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ETHIOPIA

Area:
976 680 sq.km
Climate:
Northern coastal area and lowlands in south and east are semi-arid to arid; rest of country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter.
Population:
66.5 million (2002 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$100 (2000)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics:
Land-locked country, roads inadequate
Major foodcrops:
Maize, teff, barley, sorghum, wheat, pulses, enset (false banana)
Marketing year:
January/December; Lean season: August-November
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
69 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


Planting of the 2002 secondary "belg" grain crops is underway. The belg crop accounts for some 10 percent of total grain production but in some areas it provides important amounts of the annual grain production.

The 2001 main "meher" season grain harvest was estimated by FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission late last year at 8.8 million tonnes, 5 percent below the 2000 post-harvest estimate but about 5 percent above the average of the previous five years. The increase was mainly due to favourable rains and a low incidence of pests and diseases. The bumper harvest has resulted in sharply falling grain prices in most markets, negatively impacting on farmers' income. The price fall could negatively affect next year's production. On the other hand, the low prices offer an opportunity for a significant build-up of stocks at all levels. Export possibilities to neighbouring countries will be restricted because of good harvests in neighbouring Kenya and Sudan.

The overall good harvest masks the existence of food deficient communities in most parts of the country due to localized drought, population displacement and limited purchasing power. Emergency food requirements in 2002 are projected at about 560 000 tonnes targeting some 5.2 million people. The Mission strongly recommended local purchases to the extent possible for donors wishing to give food aid to the country. (For more details, the Mission Report can be found at the address http://www.fao.org/giews/english/alertes/2002/SRETH202.htm)


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2002 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


 

Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Previous five years average production

1 211

-

7 230

8 441

Previous five years average imports

697

13

58

768

2002 Domestic Availability

1 800

-

7 527

9 327

2001 Production (rice in paddy terms)

1 400

-

7 427

8 827

2001 Production (rice in milled terms)

1 400

-

7 427

8 827

Possible stock drawdown

400

-

100

500

2002 Utilization

2 060

15

7 547

9 622

Food use

1 920

15

6 502

8 437

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

200

200

Non-food use

140

-

895

1 035

Exports or re-exports

-

-

150

150

Possible stock build up

-

-

-

-

2002 Import Requirement

260

15

20

295

Anticipated commercial imports

110

15

-

125

Food aid needs

150

-

20

170

Current Aid Position

       

Food aid pledges

8

-

3

11

of which: delivered

8

-

3

11

Donor-financed purchases

-

-

-

-

of which: for local use

-

-

-

-

for export

-

-

-

-

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year)

29

0

98

127

Indexes

       

2001 Production as % of average:

     

105

2002 Import requirement as % of average:

     

38


FAO/GIEWS - April 2002

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