FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.1, April 2002 SOUTH AFRICA 41

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SOUTH AFRICA

Area:
1.22 million sq.km
Climate:
Sub-tropical with rains concentrated in the summer months (November-April); occasional snow in winter over higher parts of plateau and Cape ranges; an average of 120 days frost in the interior plateau
Population:
40.86 million (2001 estimate); GNP per caput US$3 020 (2000)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Normally net food exporter, notably maize
Logistics:
Adequate port, rail and road facilities
Major foodcrops:
Maize, wheat
Marketing year:
May/April; Lean season: February-April
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
54 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


Prospects for the 2002 main maize crop, to be harvested from May, are favourable. This reflects generally adequate rains since the beginning of the season and an increase of 5 percent in the area planted. Official production forecasts by mid-March point to a maize crop close to 9 million tonnes, some 20 percent above last year's crop of 7.5 million tonnes. However, this forecast may be revised downwards following dry weather in parts in March.

Following large exports of maize in marketing year 2001/2002 (May/April), the supply is tight and prices remain at high levels. The country is importing 100 000 tonnes of white maize and about 290 000 tonnes of yellow maize to replenish stocks. Prospects for the 2002 main maize crop, to be harvested from May, are favourable. This reflects generally adequate rains since the beginning of the season and an increase of 5 percent in the area planted. Official production forecasts by mid-March point to a maize crop close to 9 million tonnes, some 20 percent above last year's crop of 7.5 million tonnes. However, this forecast may be revised downwards following dry weather in parts in March.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2001/02 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


 

Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Previous five years average production

2 222

3

9 887

12 112

Previous five years average exports

170

-

1 219

1 389

2001/02 Domestic Availability

2 493

100

9 086

11 679

2001 Production (rice in paddy terms)

2 493

-

7 786

10 279

2001 Production (rice in milled terms)

2 493

-

7 786

10 279

Possible stock drawdown

-

100

1 300

1 400

2001/02 Utilization

2 843

100

9 962

12 905

Food Use

2 480

100

4 567

7 147

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

-

-

Non-food use

164

-

4 095

4 259

Exports or Re-exports

150

-

1 300

1 450

Possible stock build up

49

-

-

49

2001/02 Import Requirement

350

-

876

1 226

Anticipated commercial imports

350

-

876

1 226

Food aid needs

-

-

-

-

Current Aid Position

       

Food aid pledges

-

-

-

-

of which: Delivered

-

-

-

-

Donor-financed purchases

-

-

55

55

of which: for local use

-

-

-

-

for export

-

-

55

55

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)

61

2

112

175

Indexes

       

2001 production as % of average:

     

85

2001/02 import requirement as % of average:

     

88


FAO/GIEWS - April 2002

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