“Not by bread alone” or FAO at the Russian meat industry summit
On 30 May, Oleg Kobiakov, Director of the FAO Moscow Liaison Office with the Russian Federation, presented the Global Meat Market Review at the summit “Russian Agrarian Policy: Products Safety and Quality”, a part of the international exhibition “Meat & Poultry Industry Russia/MAP Russia & VIV”.
“FAO Markets and Trade Division gathers, analyses and spreads information about the meat market. Analytical reports on the meat market and short-term forecasts of supply, demand, trade, stocks and prices are published on a regular basis, along with thematic analysis and information on policy changes,” Oleg Kobiakov said. “According to FAO, last year the global meat production reached 360 million tonnes (slaughter weight), which is 1.2 percent more than in 2021.
After a sharp decline in global meat production in 2019 due to African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in several Asian countries in 2020 and 2021 the world meat sector generally recovered, mainly due to the growth in pork.
Last year the overall global meat production faced such problems as rising cost of feed and other inputs, increasing incidence of livestock diseases, adverse weather conditions. In some countries that led to a decrease in stock, resulting in lower slaughter weight, meat production reduction and curtailing production to maintain profitability.
As for poultry meat, its production will expand, although at a slower pace. The forecast for global poultry meat production in 2022 was up to 138.8 million tonnes, signifying a slight increase (by 0.6 percent). Starting from 2021, this is the lowest growth rate ever recorded, mainly due to limited supplies associated with rising costs because of high feed and energy prices, labour shortages and HPAI spread in several major producing regions including Europe and North America.
The Russian Federation expected an increase in production on account of the volume of imports of hatching eggs and day-old chicks from the European Union, which are not included in the list of Russian counter-sanctions.
In 2022, the global meat trade, according to the forecast, reached 42 million tonnes, 0.8 percent less than the previous year, mainly due to a reduction in pork purchases by China resulting from the growth of its own production and a drop in domestic prices. Many countries also reduced meat imports due to the deteriorating economic situation and high global prices.
According to the OECD–FAO mid-term outlook, over the period of 2022–2031 the global meat output will increase by 15 percent due to an increase in the animal stock and improved productivity. Higher fertility rates and faster and more efficient weight gain will be achieved through intensive feeding, improved genetics and stock management.
The global poultry meat production will increase by 16 percent (21 million tonnes) over the next decade, amounting to 45 percent of the global meat output growth.
Asia and the Pacific will account for about half of the global increase in poultry meat production, while the share of China will amount to 15 percent. The USA will add 8 percent of the total increase in volumes due to the industry intensification, and the addition of Brazil will amount to 5 percent thanks to stock expansion and the growth of production per head. In Europe the poultry meat output will only increase by 4 percent since flock expansion is not expected, and the production per head is already high.
As compared with the 2019–2021 base period affected by ASF, by 2031 the global pork production will increase by 17 percent (18 million tonnes). This type of meat will account for 38 percent of the global production growth.
Beef production will grow by 8 percent (6 million tonnes). Latin America will expand production by 11 percent, representing 33 percent of the additional volume. However, the expansion for North America will only be 4 percent due to the expected low profitability of the area because of the weak demand resulting from consumers switching to white meat. This will reduce investment in new projects with a slight increase in stock. In Europe the beef production will decrease by 8 percent as a result of destocking due to the negative dynamics of the product export and high costs because of more stringent measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The regular OECD–FAO outlook will be published at the beginning of July,” concluded the head of the FAO Moscow Office.
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
The international exhibition “Meat & Poultry Industry Russia/MAP Russia & VIV” is an important industry event to demonstrate the whole livestock and poultry production chain, from farm to table. Feed and forage production, equipment and technologies for poultry and livestock production, solutions for processing, packaging and delivering agricultural products to the consumer were presented at the exhibition.
The summit “Russian Agrarian Policy: Products Safety and Quality” is a crucial Russian platform traditionally discussing global industry trends and matters of public policy to support and develop industrial agriculture under the current geopolitical conditions, developing a consolidated position of government and business regarding state support for the production of meat and alternative sources of protein, as well as development prospects of the poultry and livestock industry in the context of product safety and quality and its export potential.