The future of agrifood sector: challenges and possibilities

The FAO Liaison Office with the Russian Federation jointly with the Institute for Agrarian Studies of Higher School of Economics (NRU HSE) have organized the presentation of the FAO flagship report entitled “The Future of Food and Agriculture – Drivers and Triggers for Transformation – 2022” in the framework of the XXIII Yasin International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development. Renata Yanbykh, Head of the Institute for Agrarian Studies, Agrarian Policy Department, Higher School of Economics, acted as forum moderator.

In his welcoming speech, Oleg Kobiakov, Director of the FAO Moscow Office, highlighted that FAO regards HSE University as a very “reliable and productive partner”. “Joint presentation of FAO flagship reports at Russian platforms has become a good tradition. It is fully understood and supported not only at this respected scientific and education institution, but also among a wide range of leading experts representing other higher schools and scientific research centres.”

“This report on the future of food and agriculture, continued Oleg Kobiakov, stands apart from other flagship publications. This is an attempt to go beyond the usual horizon of planning and look at the global processes that will determine the medium- and long-term trends of the development of this key sector of economy. All the 2030 Agenda sustainable development goals are important, nevertheless, without achieving SDG 2 “End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture” one cannot move further across the entire Agenda.

“Currently, we are in a deep systemic crisis caused by a combination of many negative factors. These are the consequences of climate change, and economic shocks, and armed conflicts. The entire scientific and analytical potential of our Organization, which positions itself as a knowledge organization, has been used in the preparation of this report. Hundreds of experts of various profiles were involved in identifying the drivers of agrifood systems and preparing, based on the analysis, the most likely scenarios for their development.”

“This work is of an applied nature,” said the head of the FAO Moscow Office in conclusion. “The ultimate challenge is to develop recommendations that can help mitigate the impact of negative trends, guide development in a constructive way and provide a basis for sustainable development of agrifood systems.”

Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù, FAO Senior Economist, Lead of the Policy Intelligence Branch – Global Perspectives, said during the launch of the report entitled “The Future of Food and Agriculture – Drivers and Triggers for Transformation”, that the experts assumed that “agrifood systems’ outcomes depend on complex relationships with socioeconomic and environmental systems and co-determine, via systemic linkages and feedback effects, the other systems.

When analyzing the dynamics of past years and forecasting trends, the authors of the report stated that “the real prices of agricultural producers have increased significantly over the past three decades.” At the same time, “the dynamics of past years fits into long-term forecasts, according to which further price increases will be observed.”

After stating that “Sub-Saharan Africa reduced share of employment but increased value added” FAO analysts noted the existence of so-called “weak signals”. They suggest that “the traditional, schoolbook type of transition may not work (anymore) for selected regions. A future of structural unemployment and/or strong migration of former agricultural work cannot be ruled out.”

With regard to “food security and nutrition”, despite the progress made, “the prevalence of undernourishment has increased over the past five years”. The experts concluded, firstly, that “after a decade of successes, development is moving along what was considered a ‘worst case’ scenario” and, secondly, “historical achievements are not resilient and easily reversible.” According to experts, “possible futures should comprise cases of increasing food insecurity due to lack of control over causes such as climate change, conflicts and inequalities.”

The key element of the report was “four alternative scenarios to 2030, 2050 and beyond”:

More of the same (MOS). Muddling through reactions to events and crises, while doing just enough to avoid systemic collapses, led to degradation of agrifood systems sustainability and to poor living conditions for a large number of people, thus increasing the long-run likelihood of systemic failures.

Adjusted future (AFU). Some moves towards sustainable agrifood systems were triggered in an attempt to achieve Agenda 2030 goals. Some improvements in terms of well-being were obtained, but the lack of overall sustainability and systemic resilience hampered their maintenance in the long run. 

Race to the bottom (RAB). Gravely ill-incentivized decisions led the world to the worst version of itself after the collapse of substantial parts of socioeconomic, environmental and agrifood systems with costly and almost irreversible consequences for a very large number of people and ecosystems.

Trading off for sustainability (TOS). Awareness, education, social commitment, sense of responsibility and participation triggered new power relationships, and shifted the development paradigm in most countries. Short-term Gross domestic product (GDP) growth and final consumption were traded off for inclusiveness, resilience and sustainability of agrifood, socioeconomic and environmental systems. 

The main message of FAO's flagship report, as articulated by Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù, is as follows: “It is still possible to avoid the collapse of agrifood, socioeconomic and ecological systems, provided we have long-term stability and resilience instead of short-term unsustainable gains.

The reality is that sustainable and stable development does not run on a “free highway”: richer countries and social groups that have enough funds to cover the inevitable costs of implementing transformations must bear these costs in order to support those who have already faced the negative consequences of unsustainable development.”

In conclusion, the team leader of the FAO Global Perspectives Research Team quoted Antonio Gramsci, an Italian philosopher: “...my mind is pessimistic, but my will is optimistic. Whatever the situation, I imagine the worst that could happen in order to summon up all my reserves and will power to overcome every obstacle.”

Sergey Kiselev, Professor, Head of the Department of Agroeconomics, Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University; Nadezhda Orlova, Head of the Department of Innovation Economics in Agriculture, Institute of Agricultural Research, HSE; Anton Pushkarev, Head of Communications and External Partnerships, LLC Syngenta, participated in the discussion at the forum. 

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

“The future of food and agriculture – drivers and triggers for transformation” aims at inspiring strategic thinking and actions to transform agrifood systems towards a sustainable, resilient and inclusive future, by building on both previous reports in the same series as well as on a comprehensive corporate strategic foresight exercise that also nurtured FAO Strategic Framework 2022–31.

It analyses major drivers of agrifood systems and explores how their trends could determine alternative futures of agrifood, socioeconomic and environmental systems.