As of June 2005, the number of countries facing serious food shortages throughout the world stands at 34 with 23 in Africa, 8 in Asia/Near East, 2 in Latin America and 1 in Europe. The causes are varied but civil strife and drought predominate. A recent outbreak of desert locusts in western Africa and the tsunami disaster in south Asia have had serious though localized food security consequences. In many countries, the HIV/AIDS pandemic is a major contributing factor to food insecurity. Recently published assessment reports highlighting these factors in greater detail can be found at:
http://www.fao.org/giews/english/alertes/sptoc.htm
In eastern Africa, the March through May rains this year have been significantly below normal in eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and northeastern Tanzania. However, recent rainfall along the Kenya-Somalia coastline and in central Kenya has eased the dry conditions. Recent heavy rains and floods particularly in Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya, resulted in loss of life and destruction of crops and property.
The effects of earlier droughts and past or ongoing civil strife and conflicts continue to undermine the food security of large numbers of people. In Sudan, last year�s poor harvest coupled with conflict and population displacements have resulted in a precarious food situation in several parts. Food supplies for millions of families across Sudan are running critically low, and many will face severe shortages unless more funds for food and agricultural inputs are forthcoming. In Eritrea, prospects for the 2005 agricultural season, which has just started, improved with recent good rains. However, serious food shortages remain following consecutive years of drought and poor crop production. An estimated 2.3 million people, about two-thirds of the whole population - including in urban and peri-urban areas - need humanitarian assistance. The slow response to the humanitarian appeal of 2005 is a major concern. In Somalia, despite improved crop and pasture prospects, there are serious humanitarian concerns due to cumulative effects of successive droughts and insecurity. Recent flare-ups in conflict in several areas have also displaced a large number of people and disrupted economic and livelihood activities. In Ethiopia and Kenya, recent good rains have improved crop prospects. However, a large number of people depend on food assistance and an adequate response to recent humanitarian appeals is urgently needed.
In southern Africa, harvesting of 2004/05 main agricultural season crops is nearly completed. The sub-region has been affected by erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells especially during the critical maize grain development stage in several countries, reducing yields significantly. FAO/WFP crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions visited Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Lesotho and Swaziland in April-May this year to assess the outcome of the season. Estimates indicate that the 2005 cereal crops were hardest hit by drought in Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. Some reduction in total production is also forecast for Angola, Mozambique and Botswana compared to 2004. On a brighter note, an increase in cereal harvests is forecast in South Africa, Madagascar and Namibia. Although some increase in cereal harvest in Swaziland and Lesotho was estimated compared to the previous year, production in these countries is alarmingly on a long-term downward trend. Full information on vulnerable groups in the sub-region is not yet available, as the national Vulnerability Assessment Committees (VACs) are still preparing their assessment reports. However, early indications point to large numbers of people in Zimbabwe, Malawi and southern Mozambique as being at risk of food insecurity due to reduced harvests and lack of purchasing power. The devastating impact of HIV/AIDS is a compounding factor in all the countries of the sub-region. WFP launched a regional Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO) earlier in the year requiring some 704 000 tonnes of food commodities over a three-year period (2005-2007) to assist the food insecure and AIDS affected populations in the region.
In the Great Lakes region, harvesting of 2005B season crops will begin soon (June-July) with expectation of a near-normal cereal harvest. However, production of roots and tubers, important staples, is expected to be hard hit by the continuing effects of the cassava mosaic virus and unfavourable weather. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, food insecurity and malnutrition remain serious problems due to persistent instability, particularly in the east and northeast.
In northern Africa, harvesting of the 2005 winter cereal crops has only started. Early forecasts point to below-average output in Morocco, principally as a result of reduced plantings and low yields caused by a dry spell in main producing areas. By contrast, above-average output is anticipated in Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia, following generally favourable weather conditions. The subregion�s 2005 aggregate cereal output is tentatively forecast at about 31.8 million tonnes, some 13 percent below last year�s record level, but about 4 percent above the average of the past five years.
In western Africa, the rainy season has started in the south of the Sahel, allowing land preparation and planting of coarse grains. Desert locusts remain a serious threat in the subregion, although FAO is not expecting a large-scale invasion this year. In the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, where the rainy season is now well established, the first maize crop is developing satisfactorily in the south and the centre, while millet and sorghum are emerging in the north.
The food situation has been worsening in the parts of the Sahel affected by locusts and drought last year, in spite of actions taken by governments. In Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal, millet prices continue to rise, while livestock prices have been falling. This reduces access to main food staples for vulnerable households, notably pastoral and agro-pastoral groups, which were hit especially hard. Severe malnutrition is reported to be on the increase in Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Several UN agencies have appealed for funds to assist affected populations, including FAO, UNICEF, WFP, but pledges are reportedly still short of requirements. Adequate funding and food aid are urgently needed to respond to the worsening situation.
In central Africa, reports of desert locusts in the extreme north of Cameroon have raised concerns over the food outlook for that part of the country, which is already facing a difficult lean season following a significant decline in food production last year due to drought.
In Asia, the impact of the 26 December 2004 tsunami is still being felt in the affected countries of South Asia. Although the overall food supply situation in those countries is satisfactory, many farmers in affected areas have lost two consecutive paddy seasons and face severe food security problems. Most of the IDPs, especially in Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Maldives, are still depending on food aid.
The main rice season is well advanced in countries around the Equatorial belt, whilst in many other countries land preparation and planting, of both rice and coarse grains have or are about to start with the arrival of monsoon rains.
In DPR Korea, over 60 percent of rice transplanting has been completed in the major producing regions with the assistance of civil society at large and the military. The country gathered a good crop last year. However, the public distribution system ration may be reduced to an alarming 200 grams per person per day from July due to inadequate food donations. WFP has been forced to curtail distributions to many vulnerable beneficiaries for the same reason. Mongolia has experienced another harsh winter after a drought last summer. As a result, substantial livestock losses have been forecast for the 2004/05 and the food supply situation remains precarious.
Severe droughts have also affected crops in several other countries, particularly in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, China, and Laos. In Bangladesh, the government grain stock has been depleted to a dangerous level with soaring grain prices, mainly due to the severe floods last summer. The 2005 forecast bumper Boro crop is expected to help the country recover from the serious shortfalls.
In China, larger crops for wheat, rice, and maize in 2005 are expected due to the continued government support, but China will still face a grain deficit and will continue to be a net grain importer. In addition, China is expected to import in 2005 more than 22 million tonnes of soybeans.
In Afghanistan, prospects are for a significantly high cereal harvest following heavy snowfall and rains in winter and spring. The forecast cereal harvest at about 5.3 million tonnes is second only to the historic record harvest in 2003, estimated at 5.4 million tonnes.
In the Asian CIS region, favourable weather conditions and adequate water availability for irrigation have improved prospects for a good harvest. Aggregate cereal harvest in the region is forecast at about 28.2 million tonnes compared with 26.5 million tonnes last year. This aggregate includes some 23 million tonnes of wheat and 4.56 million tonnes of coarse grains (barley and maize).
In the Near East, the outlook for winter cereal crops, being harvested, is generally favourable. However, in Turkey the outlook has somewhat been dampened by the intermittent drought conditions that prevailed in central and south-eastern parts during last winter. In the major winter wheat and barley production areas of the country, the cold inland weather affected developing crops. In Iraq, the overall food security situation is adversely affected by conflict and security problems.
In Central America and the Caribbean, planting of the 2005/06 first (main) season coarse grain and bean crops has started with the arrival of first rains in May. In Mexico, harvesting of winter wheat is well advanced and production is expected at 2.8 million tonnes, showing a substantial recovery from last year�s drought affected output. Planting of the spring/summer maize crop is underway and area planted is forecast to increase about 10-12 percent. In the Dominican Republic, planting of the 2005/06 first season maize is underway, while harvesting of the 2005 main paddy crop has started and an above-average output is anticipated. In Cuba and Haiti, a prolonged dry spell has severely affected the production of main food and cash crops.
In South America,planting of the 2005 wheat crop has started in the southern areas of the sub-region, while harvesting of the 2005 maize crop is well advanced. In Argentina, a record maize crop of about 19.5 million tonnes is anticipated, while in Brazil maize production has been affected by dry weather conditions in southern main producing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul with a reduction of about 13 percent compared to previous year. In Chile, production of maize is estimated at record level; while in Uruguay maize production is estimated to be far below the initial forecast of 290 000 tonnes due to reduced yields as a consequence of dry weather conditions at the beginning of the year. In Ecuador, heavy rains at the end of April caused some losses to the winter paddy crop that was about to be harvested in coastal provinces of Guayas and Manabi.
In Europe, prospects for the cereal crops throughout the region remain generally favourable with the exception of southern Spain and Portugal where drought has devastated crops this year and output will be sharply reduced. However, apart from the losses in these two countries, output in the European Union was already expected to decline in 2005 on the basis of reduced plantings and a return to average yields after bumper levels in 2004. The aggregate cereal output for the EU is currently forecast to fall by about 10 percent from last year�s record level. In the Balkan countries, another very good wheat crop is in prospect in Romania, but otherwise outputs are forecast to fall somewhat in 2005 on the assumption that yields in these countries will also return to normal after bumper levels last year.
In the European CIS, heavy rains and unusually cold weather during early spring delayed planting, which may affect yields. Earlier it was hoped that the region would collect a bumper crop given high moisture levels and low winterkill following above average snowfall in winter. Aggregate cereal harvest in the region is tentatively forecast at about 117 million tonnes, some 3 million tonnes down on last year�s harvest. The forecast harvest in the region includes some 63.5 million tonnes of wheat, 27.4 million tonnes of barley and 10.5 million tonnes of maize.
In North America, prospects remain generally favourable for the wheat crops at different stages of growth throughout the region. The United States aggregate wheat output in 2005 is forecast to fall marginally. Prospects for the coarse grain crops that have been sown this spring are generally good after a favourable planting season. While little change is forecast in the final area for harvest, lower yields expected after very high levels in 2004 are expected to result in a reduction of about 3 percent in the output this year. In Canada, conditions for wheat planting this spring have been generally favourable. A slightly smaller planted area is estimated but expectations for less abandonment this year could result in little change in the final area harvested. However, a reduction in yields could result in a smaller wheat output, currently forecast at 23.5 million tonnes, 9 percent down from 2004.
In Oceania, a significant reduction is expected in Australia�s 2005 cereal production because of persisting drought in eastern parts of the country during what should have been the main planting period. Despite excellent conditions in the west of the country, the aggregate cereal output in 2005 is now forecast to fall by about 8 percent from the 2004 crop and about 12 percent compared to the five-year average.