Massive reduction in ICES 2024 herring advice

Scientists are worried about the state of the small pelagic resources in the North Atlantic, and the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has recommended a 44 percent cut in the herring total allowable catch (TAC) for 2024, as well as a 5 percent cut in the mackerel TAC.

The stocks of small pelagics in the North East Atlantic (herring, mackerel, blue whiting) may be in danger of overfishing, according to the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). For all three species, the fishing pressure is above the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Herring and blue whiting both have long-term management strategies, but mackerel does not.

Mackerel

ICES has recommended a minor reduction in the TAC for North Atlantic mackerel by 5 percent to 739 386 tonnes for 2024. This is still 36 percent lower than expected catches because the coastal states have set their own unilateral quotas which amount to more than the ICES advice. The stock assessment of mackerel shows that the spawning stock has been reduced by 2.7 million tonnes from a historic peak in 2015.

In Peru, the Ministry of Production (PRODUCE) has approved raising the mackerel catch limit by 22 percent to 33 900 tonnes in 2023. This will first and foremost benefit the artisanal fishers, who will now be able to fish with purse seine nets all year. As of the end of July, the artisanal fleet had landed over 27 000 tonnes of mackerel.

Norway’s autumn mackerel season was off to a good start in August. As of the end of August, the Norwegian fleet had already landed 89 890 tonnes of mackerel. However, this was well below landings during the same period in 2022, when 156 391 tonnes were landed. The first-hand price was up from an average of NOK 13.01 per kg in 2022 to NOK 14.74 per kg in 2023. In September landings were quite good also. During late October, however, strong winds and bad weather kept many vessels in port, and landings dropped. Norwegian vessels have been very active in UK waters, but landings were behind last year.

Trade

Norway is the largest exporter of Atlantic mackerel in the world, and about 15 – 20 percent of all the Norwegian mackerel ends up in the Republic of Korea. However, Korean shopping habits are changing. They are not shopping in physical shops to the extent that they used to. A growing share of sales is now channelled through the internet. The COVID-19 pandemic probably caused this development. Today, about 43 percent of Koreans buy food and household goods through the internet.

In addition, direct TV programs or live streaming services are promoting specific products, often with a well-known chef or an “influencer” helping, and viewers can buy directly on the internet, live. Thus, e-trade has become an integrated part of the shopping behaviour of Koreans. A recent study showed that as much as 25 percent of Norwegian mackerel is being sold through these internet channels.

Norwegian exports of whole frozen mackerel during the first half of 2023 increased by 15 percent, from 79 691 tonnes in 2022 to 91 590 tonnes in 2023. The largest markets were the Republic of Korea (15 133 tonnes, up by 15.5 percent), Japan (12 548 tonnes, up by 79.3 percent) and Viet Nam (10 734 tonnes, up by 33.8 percent).

Chinese imports of whole frozen mackerel dropped significantly during the first half of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, from 39 239 tonnes on 2022 to 22 046 tonnes in 2023 (-43.8 percent). The main suppliers were Norway (accounting for 64.6 percent of the total), Ireland (15.3 percent of total), and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (7.6 percent of the total).

The Norwegian Seafood Council reported that export prices for herring and mackerel spiked in late July and early August. Mackerel prices had remained fairly stable, albeit with some ups and downs, from late 2022 until week 28 of 2023, and then made a jump in week 29. Much of this increase must be attributed to the Norwegian krone (NOK), which has become weaker over the past months. In US dollar terms, prices have been relatively stable, but they did increased markedly in week 29, when the export price for frozen herring hit NOK 18.00 per kg In October, the price was down to NOK 14.50 again. Mackerel prices, on the other hand, kept going up, and in the beginning of October reached NOK 16.08 per kg.

Herring

The Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) has urged governments to take action to save the Atlanto-Scandian herring fishery from collapsing. This species has been overfished for several years, and ICES has already recommended a 44 percent cut in the 2024 quotas. The North Sea herring fishery could approach a situation like in the 1960s, when a five-year total closure of this fishery was imposed.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans have cut next year’s herring quota by 11 percent to just 21 000 tonnes. The fishery, which is done in the waters off southwestern Nova Scotia, is targeting herring mainly for lobster bait. The fishery’s TAC has been cut by 50 percent since 2018, but the stock is still considered in critical condition.

Norwegian catches of North Sea herring were slow during the summer, and as of the middle of July, only 62 000 tonnes were landed, compared to 106 000 tonnes during the same period in 2022. Herring fishing came to a halt during the summer vacation, and only a couple of vessels were active in late July.

Trade

Russian exports of round frozen herring during the first six months of 2023 skyrocketed. Total exports grew from 83 243 tonnes in 2022 to 456 807 tonnes in the same period in 2023. The largest markets were Egypt, which took 297 459 tonnes (65.1 percent of the total) and China with 116 935 tonnes (25.6 percent of the total).

Norwegian exports of whole frozen herring dropped by 32.5 percent during the first half of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. Total exports amounted to 46 905 tonnes worth NOK 614 million (USD 58 million), while in 2022 exports during the same period amounted to 69 436 tonnes worth NOK 690 million (USD 65 million). The largest market by far was Egypt, which accounted for over 61 percent of the total.

Outlook

There will be a considerable reduction in the volume of North Sea herring available next year. This could affect prices, which are already up.

Mackerel supplies may be slightly lower. However, although the official TAC has been cut by 5 percent, it is likely that the landed volume will be much higher than the TAC as the coastal states have set their own unilateral quotas, which add up to more than the scientific advice.

There will continue to be significant changes in trade patterns. The Russian Federation is increasing exports to Asia and Egypt massively, and this may disrupt European trade with Asia.