As of October 2005, the number of countries facing serious food shortages throughout the world stands at 39, with 25 in Africa, 11 in Asia/Near East, 2 in Latin America and 1 in Europe. The causes are varied but civil strife and drought predominate. A recent severe earthquake in South Asia has left tens of thousands dead and millions homeless and vulnerable in Pakistan. In many countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, the HIV/AIDS pandemic is a major contributing factor to food insecurity. This report and similar others are available on the internet at the following URL address:
http://www.fao.org/giews/english/alertes/sptoc.htm
In eastern Africa, harvesting of the 2005 main season cereal crops has concluded or is about to conclude in southern parts of the sub-region while in northern parts harvesting of the crops has just begun. Prospects are favourable in Ethiopia and Eritrea while average to above average crops are estimated for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. In Somalia, however, a below-average 2005 main "gu" season harvest is estimated. Meanwhile in Sudan, despite good rains, prospects are uncertain.
The overall food situation in the subregion remains precarious with high malnutrition rates reported in several countries due to the effects of war, displacement and earlier droughts. Currently, more than 18 million people in the subregion depend on humanitarian assistance. The situation in Sudan is particularly alarming due to continued conflict that has resulted in serious food insecurity, especially in Darfur and southern Sudan. In Somalia, recent assessments indicate severe food insecurity in several parts of the country. The below average "gu" harvest coupled with an upsurge in civil strife have worsened the food situation. Nearly one million people are in need of humanitarian assistance.
In southern Africa, rainfall prospects for 2005/06 season in the subregion in general are normal to above normal. Land preparation and input deliveries are underway in most countries for planting of the main season crops starting in October-November. Problems with input supplies such as seeds, fertilizer, draught power and fuel, as well as hyperinflation are seen as severe constraints primarily in Zimbabwe. About 12 million people, two-thirds of them in Zimbabwe and Malawi, require emergency food assistance until the next harvest in April 2006. A bumper maize harvest in 2005 in South Africa is more than enough to cover the subregion’s total import requirements of 2.8 million tonnes, of which two-thirds are anticipated to be imported commercially. WFP’s regional Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation has so far received 36 percent of the US$622 million appeal over a three-year period (2005-07).
In the Great Lakes region, although overall food production is improving in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) , security related problems are responsible for the food insecurity of local populations especially in the eastern part of the country. The food supply situation in general has improved following the favourable main season cereal harvests of 2005 and declining food prices in Burundi and Rwanda. However, problems with main root and tuber crops caused by cassava virus and pests persist, resulting in rising prices of these crops.
In northern Africa, harvesting of the 2005 winter crops has been completed, coarse grains (maize and sorghum) are presently being harvested in Egypt and harvesting of paddy is about to start. The 2005 aggregate wheat output is estimated to drop by 17 percent from last year’s record level, to about 14 million tonnes, despite a record crop in Egypt. Delayed plantings in Algeria due to a late start of the rainy season, and extensive dry spells in Morocco resulted in sharply reduced output in these countries. Morocco’s output is estimated to be less than half of last year’s level at about 2.5 million tonnes. Wheat production in Tunisia was also smaller this year but remained above the average of the past five years. By contrast, wheat output in Egypt increased further this year to a new record level at almost 8.2 million tonnes, mainly as a result of an increase in the area planted.
In western Africa, development of current crops in the Sahel has been satisfactory so far in most producing zones, due to favourable weather conditions, and a good harvest is in prospect. In the southern parts of the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, an average maize crop has been harvested while the secondary maize crop is developing satisfactorily. In the northern parts, harvesting of coarse grains is underway. However, many areas of the Sahel and northern parts of coastal countries continue to face a difficult food situation, due to depleted household food stocks and unusually high food prices, notably in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. An improvement is likely following widespread harvesting from late October. In Côte d’Ivoire , insecurity, labour shortages and the de facto partition of the country continue to disrupt agricultural production and marketing activities, while food assistance continues to be needed for internally displaced people and refugees in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
In central Africa, civil strife and insecurity continue to undermine food security in several countries. The food security situation remains precarious in the Central African Republic, and a strong agricultural recovery is not expected this year. In Cameroon, a tight food situation is still reported in the north, following the poor 2004 cereal production.
In Asia, the recent earthquake in South Asia killed over 50 000 people, injured more than 74 000 and left millions homeless in Pakistan and India. Numbers are still rising. Latest estimates indicate that over 2 million people require life-saving assistance, mainly winterised tents in view of the fast-approaching winter. The UN has appealed for some US$ 550 million to meet these urgent needs for the next six months.
Over nine months after the 26 December 2004 tsunami disaster, most of the IDPs are still depending on food aid, while recovery and reconstruction activities continue. Although the overall food supply situation in Indonesia and Sri Lanka is satisfactory, many farmers in affected areas have lost two consecutive paddy seasons and face severe food security problems. In Maldives, tourist numbers in the last nine months have reportedly dropped by about 30 percent compared to before tsunami.
In DPR Korea, a record crop since 1995 is expected due to favourable weather conditions and strong government support. But country’s per capita food consumption is still low and nutrition is well below minimum requirement by international standards. Mongolia has experienced another harsh winter and a drought summer and the food supply situation remains precarious. Severe droughts or floods have affected crops in several other countries, particularly in Laos, Timor-Leste, and Nepal.
Despite another good crop, China is still expected to face a grain deficit and to continue to be a net grain importer in 2005/06, which may have significant impact on grain prices in the region and world market. In addition, China is expected to import more than 22 million tonnes of soybeans and more than 3 million tonnes of cotton.
In Afghanistan, a bumper harvest has been gathered and aggregate cereal output is estimated at almost double the drought-reduced harvest last year.
In the Asian CIS region, cereal harvesting is complete and production is estimated at about 27.9 million tonnes, some 1.8 million tonnes up on last year’s harvest. The aggregate harvest in the region includes some 23 million tonnes of wheat, 2.4 million tonnes of barley and about 1.5 million tonnes of maize. Kazakhstan is the largest producer in the region accounting for about 47 percent of the total cereal harvest.
Most countries in the Near East harvested average to above average cereal crops last summer due to favourable growing conditions. Jordan has strongly recovered from the 2004 drought affected poor crop. However, in Saudi Arabia, cereal production, mainly wheat, is estimated well below average due to reduced planted area.
In Central America and the Caribbean, the abundant rains typical of the hurricane season were reported over most of the subregion during the past few weeks, with some damages to rural housing and infrastructure. Harvesting of the 2005 main season cereal crops is well advanced in Central America and average to above average outputs of maize (the main cereal) are provisionally forecast. However, in Guatemala, Hurricane Stan has caused serious crop losses. In Mexico, harvesting of the 2005 spring/summer maize and sorghum crops is about to start and production is expected to decline in comparison to last year’s record output as a consequence of reduced plantings and yields. In Haiti and Cuba, production of food and cash crops has been seriously affected first by a prolonged period of dry weather conditions and then by the torrential precipitations due to the close passage of seasonal hurricanes.
In South America, planting of the 2005 winter wheat crop has been completed in the southern countries. Due to inadequate levels of soil moisture at planting and unattractive price prospects, the aggregate planted area of the subregion is estimated to be down by about 12 percent from last year’s record. Harvesting of 2005 coarse grains has been virtually completed and the subregion’s aggregate output is expected to be about 72.2 million tonnes, some 3 percent below last year’s harvest and far from the 2003 record crop of 80.4 million tonnes. This is essentially due to the pronounced reduction in Brazilian maize crop output that offset the good results obtained in almost all other South American countries. Planting of the important 2005/06 summer season coarse grains has started and planting intentions point to a reduction in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Chile, while average plantings are expected in the other countries. In Ecuador and parts of Bolivia, dry weather conditions have affected food crops and livestock production.
In Europe, the bulk of the 2005 cereal crops have been gathered, apart from maize in the major southern and central producing countries. Cereal output has fallen quite sharply throughout the region from the record level last year, but remained about the average of the past five years. Yields of the winter grain crops generally returned to about average levels but the grain quality was compromised in many central and eastern parts of the region by heavy rains and flooding during the summer. By contrast, in the Iberian Peninsula, drought plagued the 2004/05 season causing sharp crop losses. Regarding the region’s main summer crop of maize, after a promising start to the season with ample soil moisture in most producing areas, apart from Spain and Portugal, a period of dry weather reduced yield potential in France and Italy. However, heavy summer rainfall continued to benefit crops in the big producers in eastern parts of the region such as Hungary and Romania. Winter cereals for harvest in 2006 have already been planted in many northern parts and planting is ongoing in central parts under generally satisfactory conditions. Rainfall in eastern parts has somewhat hampered fieldwork for autumn planting although not yet sufficiently to have a serious impact on the area sown. Good precipitation is urgently needed for the planting in the drought-affected Iberian Peninsula if another reduced winter crop is to be avoided.
In the European CIS ( The Russian Federation, The Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova), cereal harvesting is nearly complete and aggregate harvest in the region is tentatively estimated at about 119 million tonnes, nearly 5.6 million tonnes down on last year’s good harvest. This aggregate includes some 67.4 million tonnes of wheat and 51.5 million tonnes of coarse grains. Harvest in the Russian Federation accounts for about 47 million tonnes of wheat and nearly 29 million tonnes of the coarse grains, while the figures for Ukraine are 18.2 and 16.4 million tonnes respectively.
In North America, planting of the 2006 winter wheat crop is progressing on schedule in the United States and plants are emerging well under generally favourable conditions. The aggregate output of wheat in 2005 was officially estimated in October at 57.1 million tonnes, about 3 percent down from 2004. Coarse grains output is also forecast to fall, after last year’s record harvest. Maize output is forecast at 270 million tonnes, 10 percent down from last year but still the second largest crop on record as, despite the likelihood of below average yields, a very large area has been sown this year.In Canada, the 2005 cereal harvest has been progressing slowly due to rainfall and cool temperatures, but the good rainfall throughout the season was generally favourable for crop yields. Another above-average output is expected, with latest official forecasts putting the 2005 wheat output at almost 25.6 million tonnes.
In Oceania, the 2005 cereal output in Australia is set to fall slightly from last year’s level, which nevertheless would be a much better outcome than was envisaged at the start of the season when planting rains failed to arrive on time in most of the eastern producing regions. An about-average winter grain area was sown when late rains eventually arrived. With the harvest of the 2005 winter grains just starting in some northern parts of the country, production forecasts continue to vary quite greatly, but it now seems likely that the wheat crop in 2005 will at least be as large as last year’s 20 million tonnes. Prospects for the summer coarse grain crops (mostly sorghum and maize) planted in September and October for harvest in 2006 are somewhat uncertain following predominantly dry weather continuing throughout September in Queensland, where a large share of the summer crops are produced.