El Niño-related weather anomalies cut food production in eastern Africa. From October 1997 to February 1998, exceptionally heavy rains associated with the El Niño phenomenon followed by flooding caused havoc in several parts of eastern Africa. In some countries such as Kenya and Somalia, loss of life occurred, while whole villages were completely cut off from the rest of the country, making distribution of emergency food and non-food assistance extremely difficult. The floods caused loss of crops and large numbers of livestock in several countries and extensively damaged the sub-region’s road and rail infrastructure, disrupting the movement of goods within and between countries. Following the reduced harvests in 1997 due to drought earlier in the year and erratic rains later, the damage caused by floods has worsened an already difficult food situation in the sub-region, resulting in a substantial upward revision of anticipated cereal imports, including food aid, for 1998. Flooding has also led to a proliferation of deadly human and livestock diseases.
Food supply situation remains difficult in the Great Lakes region due to the combined effect of persistent insecurity, shortage of inputs and, during the first season of 1998, heavy and prolonged rains associated with El Niño. In Burundi, despite an increase in area planted following the return home of people previously in regroupment camps, excessive rains reduced yields and production, while in Rwanda persistent insecurity in parts coupled with a late start of rains followed by floods kept food production per head well below pre-crisis levels. Food prices in both countries continue to rise and are at levels beyond the reach of large sections of their population. The severe damage to infrastructure in east Africa, the traditional lifeline of the Great Lakes region, has seriously curtailed humanitarian assistance programmes. In North and South Kivu provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), excessive rains and floods have compounded the problems arising from widespread and persistent insecurity, seriously hampering food production. In all cases, a shortage of agricultural inputs remains a major constraint to food production.
In Sierra Leone, the food outlook in the rural areas is uncertain despite the recent restoration of the civilian administration. While the food supply situation in the ECOMOG-controlled urban centres has started to improve, it may worsen in the rural areas where the remnants of the rebel forces have retreated. If fighting spreads into these areas, farm families will be displaced and vital agricultural activities such as land preparation and planting, which normally start in April, will not be performed. Heightened insecurity coupled with the poor rural infrastructure will also hamper the distribution of agricultural inputs. Already, repeated clashes and ambushes, as well as pillaging and burning of villages, have been reported in some areas. Thus, unless peace is rapidly restored throughout the whole country, food crop production in 1998 is likely to fall, leading to a sharp increase in cereal import and food aid requirements.
Food supply difficulties have emerged in some Sahelian countries, following below-average harvests in 1997. A long dry spell in July/August last year severely affected crops in the Gambia, Mauritania and Senegal, and even though adequate rainfall was received in subsequent months, harvests were reduced in these countries. However, in Mauritania the replenishment of water in reservoirs improved prospects for irrigated crops, now being harvested, which are expected to compensate partially for the reduction in rainfed production. Localized reduced harvests were also gathered in Burkina Faso and Niger. Thus, the food supply situation in these countries is expected to be tighter in 1998 than in 1997. While markets are still well supplied, cereal prices are high and increasing in the affected areas. Already, the governments of Burkina Faso, Niger and Senegal have appealed for international assistance for the affected populations.
Southern Africa’s food outlook has improved as the threat of an El Niño-induced drought recedes. As the growing season progresses, there is now cautious optimism about the season’s likely outcome. As of early March 1998, despite localized crop damage by excessive rains early in the season in some countries, crop growing conditions have generally been favourable so far, with normal to above normal rainfall in most parts. Nevertheless, more rains are still needed in the coming weeks for crops to reach maturity, particularly in Lesotho, southern parts of Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and the northern and central portions of South Africa, where rainfall has been irregular.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s cereal import requirements for 1997/98 are projected to be higher than in 1996/97 reflecting reduced production in several parts. However, the precise extent of the increase will depend on the final harvest outcome in eastern Africa.
