The food outlook for sub-Saharan Africa in 1998 is generally unfavourable
reflecting reduced food production in several parts. In eastern Africa,
unusually heavy and prolonged rains associated with El Niño resulted
in extensive flooding which caused loss of human life as well as substantial
crop and livestock losses, and inflicted severe damage to the sub-region’s
road and rail network. Movement of goods within and between countries was
seriously disrupted causing economic hardship particularly for landlocked
countries. In southern Africa, although the threat of widespread El Niño-related
drought has receded, erratic and excessive rains in parts caused localized
crop losses; however, it is still too early to gauge the precise impact
on the current season’s outcome. In Madagascar,
the harvest outcome is uncertain, given the persistence of locusts in many
cereal growing areas. In the Great Lakes region, the combination of adverse
weather and persistent insecurity has aggravated the already precarious
food supply situation, retarding the slow recovery in food production.
In western Africa, a prolonged mid-season dry spell over the western part
of the sahel in 1997 resulted in below-average harvests in a number of
countries. Overall, therefore, sub-Saharan Africa’s cereal import requirements
in 1998 are anticipated to be substantially higher than in 1997.
In Somalia, exceptionally heavy rains from mid-October to January caused the worst floods in the past three decades, resulting in an estimated 2 000 deaths, 250 000 displaced persons, serious damage to housing and infrastructure and crop and livestock losses.
The heavy rains adversely affected the 1997/98 secondary "Deyr" crops (October to February), normally accounting for some 20 percent of annual cereal production. This year’s output is estimated to be only 43 percent of the normal level. This is the fourth consecutive below-average harvest in Somalia. The floods also caused losses of household cereal stocks from the 1997 main "Gu" season. As production of that season was reduced due to dry spells, the 1997/98 aggregate cereal production is estimated at around the previous year’s poor level of 287 000 tonnes. Import requirements for the 1997/98 marketing year (August/July) have been revised upward to 330 000 tonnes, of which only 220 000 tonnes are expected to be imported commercially, leaving a food gap of over 100 000 tonnes. Prospects for the 1998 main "Gu" season crops to be planted from April are uncertain in several areas where agricultural land is still flooded.
While the floods alone resulted in losses of livestock estimated at 35 500 animals, the outbreak of the Rift Valley Fever, which has spread since October from north-eastern Kenya to the southern areas of Somalia, and other diseases are reportedly causing deaths of large numbers of animals, mainly camels and goats. This disease outbreak has triggered a ban on imports of livestock and meat by the Gulf countries where most of Somalia’s exports are destined. This ban will reduce the foreign exchange earnings of the country, and therefore its capacity to import food commercially.
The food situation is precarious and the delivery of food aid to the flood-affected population continues to be hampered by the poor condition of roads and renewed conflict in southern areas.
In Kenya, heavy rains from October to February resulted in severe floods which caused loss of life, extensive damage to infrastructure and housing, left many villages isolated and displaced large sections of the local population. The areas worst affected include the Coast Province, North Eastern Province and parts of the Eastern Province. These areas were declared a Disaster Zone by the Government, which appealed for international assistance to cope with the emergency. However, food aid distribution to these areas continues to be hampered by impassable roads, despite some improvement in conditions following a decrease in rainfall from the second half of January.
The rains also adversely affected the 1997 maize crop, the main staple of the country. Torrential rains in October/November, at the time of harvest of the main season maize crop, reduced yields already affected by a dry spell at the critical grain-filling stage. However, the biggest effect of the floods was on the second season crops, grown in the bi-modal rainfall areas of Western, Central and Eastern provinces from mid-October to February. Latest official estimates indicate a 1997/98 maize output of 2.4 million tonnes, slightly above the reduced level of 1996/97 but below the average of the past five years. Maize imports in marketing year 1997/98 (October/September), expected to be mostly covered commercially, are estimated at 700 000 tonnes.
As a result of two successive years with large food deficits, the food supply situation is anticipated to be tight during 1998. Prices of maize remain at high levels, well above the average for this time of the year, limiting access to food for a large section of the population.
While the abundant rains of past months have improved pastures for livestock, the wet conditions have also favoured the appearance of a complex of animal diseases causing significant livestock losses. This has aggravated the food situation in the pastoral districts already affected by lack of access to markets due to floods.
In Tanzania, the main impact of the exceptionally heavy rainfall from October to January and the resultant flooding has been the severe disruption of rail and road systems, greatly exacerbating the already serious transport difficulties. As a result, access to urban and periurban markets by rural communities especially in the Lake region is especially difficult as movement in and out of areas like Kagera, Kigoma, Mwanza, Mara and Shinyanga still remains highly restricted. In these and other regions where flood damage has been high, there is serious concern regarding access to food by remote villages. As some of these areas are traditionally food deficit or have had crops destroyed by flooding in the last few months, there is mounting concern about serious food shortages. In the coming months, logistical limitations to food movement and the pace at which these are resolved will be critical determinants of household food security in these areas.
In Uganda, heavy rains from mid-November to early December, mainly in the eastern and western parts, resulted in floods and mudslides which caused loss of life, damage to housing and infrastructure and localized crop losses.
The output of the recently harvested 1997 second season food crops is lower than previously anticipated due to yield reductions caused by excessive humidity, mainly for beans. However, in pastoral regions previously affected by prolonged dry weather, the heavy rains of the season have improved pasture and livestock conditions.
Prices of maize and beans, which by December 1997 had doubled in a year, have declined with the arrival of the new crop on the markets but remain at high levels reflecting serious transport difficulties following extensive damage to the road network by the excessive rain. Bad road conditions are also hampering food aid distribution to areas affected by floods.
In Ethiopia, unseasonably heavy rains from the beginning of October to the end of November disrupted harvesting of the 1997 main "meher" crops. These rains accentuated seed drop in teff, slowed the rate of desiccation of later sown grains prior to threshing, increased spoilage in stacks of harvested cereals, caused some germination in standing crops of wheat and sorghum, and increased the rate of fungal attacks in both standing and stored grains, particularly pulses. In the south-eastern parts bordering Somalia and Kenya, the heavy rains resulted in extensive flooding causing loss of life, displacement of a large number of people and damage to housing. Over 12 000 domestic animals are reported to have been lost and 30 000 hectares of land inundated. Food and non-food assistance was provided by the Government in the affected areas.
As a result of the heavy rains, coupled with erratic precipitation earlier in the season and lower use of fertilisers, the 1997 grain production declined by one-quarter from the record level of the previous year. Following two years of self-sufficiency, the grain import requirement in 1998 is estimated at 530 000 tonnes, to be covered mainly by food aid, for over 5 million vulnerable people, including those affected by a reduced harvest.
In Eritrea, unseasonable rains in October at harvest time led to spoilage in stacks of harvested cereals and reduced yields of crops already adversely affected by a dry spell in September, when the crops were at the critical maturing stage. Grain output is estimated at the same reduced level of 1996. Also, as a result of the unexpected, heavy rains, high levels of locust infestations were reported in the northern parts but control operations have been undertaken.
Cereal prices, which normally decline at harvest time, registered a sharp increase in November reflecting the anticipated poor output and have continued to increase in the past few months. With a below-average cereal harvest for the third consecutive year and a sharp reduction in grain export availability from neighbouring Ethiopia, the food situation will be tight in 1998.
In the Sudan the 1997 main season
coarse grains were not affected by the heavy rains associated with El Niño
but by below-average precipitation in parts, mainly in the south where
the harvest was sharply reduced, and in areas of the Western regions of
North Darfur and North Kordofan. The 1997 aggregate production is estimated
at 15 percent below the bumper harvest of the previous year but still above
average. While overall food supplies in 1998 are expected to be adequate
due to high levels of carryover stocks, food aid is needed for 2.4 million
displaced and drought-affected people.
In Burundi, despite an increase in the area planted following the return home of a large number of people previously in re-groupment camps, excessive rains during the season negatively affected yields of some crops. Food production during the 1998A season was marginally lower than last year’s harvest but some 20 percent below the pre-crisis average due to reduced cereal and bean outputs. The heavy rains in October at harvest time also resulted in a sharp reduction in the 1997 secondary C season crops.
Prices of food staples in January 1998 had increased substantially over their levels a year before as a result of the poor output of the past two seasons, as well as informal outflows to neighbouring countries. The already precarious food situation of the vulnerable groups, including the displaced, the recent returnees, the poorer segments of the population and those affected by insecurity, is likely to deteriorate in the coming months. Malnutrition is increasing in the whole population and is not limited to people living in camps. Substantial amounts of food aid will continue to be needed during 1998.
In Rwanda, despite an increase of 14 percent in the 1998 A season food crop production over last year’s A season, the output in per caput terms is only some 88 percent of the pre-crisis level. A one month delay in the onset of rains limited an otherwise significant expansion of cultivated area, while the ensuing excessive precipitation resulted in flooding in the valley marshlands and reduced yields of some crops.
Reflecting insufficient production, food prices continue to rise, aggravating the already precarious food security situation of large segments of the population. Malnutrition among children under five remains at high levels and the situation is deteriorating among recent returnee population. Food aid requirements for the first semester of 1998 are estimated at 82 000 tonnes of cereal equivalent; of this, some 70 000 tonnes will be distributed by WFP. The remaining 12 000 tonnes are likely to remain uncovered as a result of transport bottlenecks in the region as well as increasing insecurity in north-western prefectures.
In eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where insecurity persists, the food supply situation is critical and severe malnutrition is reported among the population. The recently harvested A season bean crop is reported to be well below average while prospects for the next crop now being planted are unfavourable due to a shortage of seed. Increased civil strife in both North and South Kivu has resulted in considerable population displacements, while recent flooding has impeded the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
Food prices have increased sharply in Uvira due to the difficulty in transporting goods along the traditional supply line which has been partially blocked by floods. A cholera outbreak has been reported in Kisangani.
In the Republic of Congo intense
factional fighting between May and November 1997 caused large-scale displacement
of the population, especially from urban to rural areas and severely disrupted
food marketing activities. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission
in January 1998 found that livestock production suffered more from the
consequences of the civil strife than crop production as cassava, the country’s
staple, is a hardy crop able to withstand adverse conditions. The Mission
estimated that total food production in cereal-equivalent terms will fall
short of utilisation requirements in 1998 some 118 000 tonnes. Normally,
such a deficit would be covered commercially. But due to the disruption
of trading activities particularly in Brazzaville, it is estimated that
for 1998 commercial food imports will reach only 80 percent of the 1995/96
level, which leaves an import gap of 46 000 tonnes to be covered by targeted
food aid and a variety of coping mechanisms.
Since the implementation of the economic embargo in August 1997, very little humanitarian assistance has been provided to the country. Also, due to disrupted internal commercial activity and poor infrastructure, the movement of available food supplies has been severely hampered, with food prices rising to levels beyond the reach of a large proportion of the population.
The recent fighting has also increased the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs), whose nutrition and health situation gives cause for concern. Latest estimates indicate that the number of IDPs may have increased to 250 000 following the recent fighting. With household food stocks exhausted or looted, their nutritional situation is likely to deteriorate unless rapid interventions can be effected. A large number of Sierra Leoneans have also fled to neighbouring countries. In addition, an estimated 420 000 Sierra Leonean refugees remain in neighbouring countries following the civil strife which started in 1991.
Sierra Leone’s cereal import requirements for 1998 are currently estimated at about 260 000 tonnes. If peace is restored and the embargo lifted soon, it is estimated that about 180 000 tonnes of cereals would be imported by local traders up to the end of 1998, leaving a food aid requirement of 80 000 tonnes. If these conditions cannot be rapidly established and humanitarian assistance remains restricted, the country could face a serious food problem.
By contrast, the crop and food supply situation in neighbouring Liberia
has improved. As a result of the stable security situation throughout the
country, rice production in 1997 increased significantly over the previous
year’s level, although it still remained below the pre-war level. Humanitarian
aid can be delivered to most areas of the country and some improvement
in the nutritional status of the population is reported. Food supply in
urban markets is stable although most of it comes from food aid. Prices
remain high in the urban markets and most people have turned to cassava
as a substitute for rice. The destruction of infrastructure during the
war continues to hamper the marketing of food commodities. Liberia
remains heavily dependent on food aid, especially the counties with a large
number of returnees. The number of refugees and IDPs, estimated at 700
000 at the beginning of the year, is likely to increase following the arrival
of Sierra Leonean refugees fleeing from
fighting and insecurity in Sierra Leone.
The Government recently appealed for international assistance for more
than 100 000 Sierra Leonean refugees. The
improved security situation is also allowing the spontaneous return of
Liberian refugees from neighbouring countries.
Following below-average harvests in several countries, the food supply
situation is expected to be tighter in 1998 than in 1997. While markets
remain generally well supplied, cereal prices are high and increasing in
the affected areas. Sales at subsidized prices or food distributions will
be necessary during the lean season. The governments of Burkina
Faso, Niger and Senegal
have appealed for international assistance for the vulnerable populations.
In Niger, the situation is aggravated by
the very low level of the national security stock for which only limited
funds and donor pledges for its replenishment have been secured. In several
countries, notably in Burkina Faso, Chad,
Niger and Senegal,
donor assistance is required for the purchase and movement of cereals from
surplus areas or from neighbouring countries to meet the food needs of
the deficit regions or to replenish national security stocks.
Assuming normal weather conditions prevail for the remainder of the
season, the sub-region’s aggregate cereal production is forecast at 19.8
million tonnes. This would represent a drop in output of about 8 percent
compared to the relatively good 1997 harvest, largely on account of reduced
planting in many countries as a result of the drought warnings and irregular
rains. A major deterioration of weather conditions in the remainder of
the March/April period could result in a further drop in output, but of
a limited magnitude given the current relatively good level of soil moisture
in many places and the availability of irrigation water for commercial
farms. Based on this production forecast, aggregate cereal import requirements
of the sub-region during the 1998/99 marketing year are estimated at about
4.7 million tonnes, some 30 percent above last year’s level. In addition,
there would be a substantial reduction of exportable surpluses from South
Africa and Zimbabwe to needy countries
in the sub-region. Reflecting reduced production and limited commercial
import capacity of several countries in the sub-region, food aid requirements
in the marketing year 1998/99 could increase. With nearly two months before
crops are harvested, these estimates should be regarded as highly tentative.
FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions, in cooperation with SADC,
are scheduled to visit the more vulnerable countries in April/May to review
the season’s outcome and to estimate the cereal import requirements, including
food aid, for 1998/99.
