1/ Except Burundi, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo which have two main seasons and Tanzania whose main season follows the southern Africa planting calendar. For Sudan, the planting period for the staple coarse grain crop is June- July and the harvesting period is October-December.

In eastern Africa, harvesting of the 1997/98 secondary season crops is complete. Excessive rains from last October to February, associated with El Niño, resulted in floods which adversely affected most countries. In Somalia, the worst floods in decades sharply reduced the secondary "Deyr" season harvest estimated at less than half the normal levels. The 1997 main season crops were also reduced due to erratic rainfall. In Kenya, the rains reduced yields of the main season maize crop at harvest time, and negatively affected the 1997/98 secondary season cereal crops. In Uganda, excessive rains during the 1997 second season reduced yields of cereals and, particularly, pulses. Output is estimated to be lower than earlier anticipated. In Rwanda, excessive rains reduced yields of cereals and pulses but increased those of roots and tubers and bananas. Overall, food output increased over last year’s reflecting larger plantings but remained below pre-crisis average levels. In Burundi, excessive rains from mid-October adversely affected the 1997 third season crops at harvest time. The heavy precipitation, coupled with a proliferation of pests and diseases, also reduced yields of cereals and pulses of the 1998 first season, although other crops benefited. Despite an increase in plantings, total food output declined slightly from the reduced level of the previous year. In Tanzania, despite localized crop losses, abundant rains generally benefited the 1997/98 secondary "Vuli" foodcrops. Production recovered from a succession of reduced harvests. Prospects for the 1998 main "long rains" season crops are also satisfactory. In Ethiopia and Sudan, 1997 production declined from the bumper crop of the previous year but remained average. In Eritrea, the 1997 cereal output remained at the same poor level of 1996 as a result of dry spells and unseasonable rains at harvest.

Following the reduced 1997/98 aggregate cereal output in the sub-region, cereal import requirements are estimated at 3.97 million tonnes. Anticipated commercial imports are estimated at 2.95 million tonnes, leaving a deficit of 1 million tonnes. However, normal trade activities and food aid distribution are seriously hampered in the sub-region by the disruption of the transport network as a result of the unusually excessive rains in recent months.

In southern Africa, as the growing season progresses and the El Niño threat recedes, there is now guarded optimism about the season’s likely outcome. As of early March 1998, crop growing conditions have been generally favourable, with normal to above-normal rainfall in most parts. Despite localized crop damage due to excessive rains, prospects are favourable for harvests in Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland and Zambia. Rainfall has been less regular in most other countries and prolonged dry spells are feared in Lesotho, the southern parts of Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe and most of the northern and central portions of South Africa. More rains are needed in these areas in the next few weeks for crops to reach maturity. Also, early frost in the coming winter months could damage late planted crops. In Madagascar, persistent locusts may cause serious damage to crops in several parts of the country, including the major agricultural areas.

Assuming normal weather conditions prevail for the remainder of the season, the sub-region’s aggregate cereal production is forecast at 19.8 million tonnes. This is about 8 percent below the 1997 relatively good harvest, largely due to reduced planting in some countries in response to drought warnings and irregular rains. Deterioration of weather conditions in March/April would result in a relatively modest further drop in output given the good reserves of soil moisture in most places and the availability of irrigation water on commercial farms. Based on these considerations, aggregate cereal import requirement of the sub-region during the 1998/99 marketing year is estimated at about 4.7 million tonnes, some 30 percent above last year’s level. Given the limited commercial import capacity of several countries in the sub-region, food aid requirements in the marketing year 1998/99 are anticipated to increase.

With two months before crops are harvested, these estimates should be regarded as highly tentative. FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions, in cooperation with SADC, are scheduled to visit the more vulnerable countries in April/May to review the season’s outcome and to estimate the cereal import requirements for 1998/99.

In western Africa, the rainy season is starting in the southern part of the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea. Land preparation and planting of the first maize crop are progressing northwards following the onset of the rains. In the Sahelian countries, seasonably dry conditions prevail and planting will begin in June/July with the start of the rainy season. Unusually high temperatures have been reported in several countries in early February.



 

The aggregate 1997 cereal output for the eight coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea (Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Togo) is estimated at around 26.5 million tonnes compared to 25.6 million tonnes in 1996. Average to above-average harvests have been registered in all the coastal countries, except in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Latest estimates point to record cereal crops in Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria. The forecast for Togo is close to normal. Following the release of final production estimates in several of the nine CILSS member countries, the aggregate output of cereals (including paddy rice) has been revised downwards to 8.9 million tonnes from 9.1 million tonnes initially estimated by the FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in October/November 1997. This is about 4 percent lower than the average for the last five years. Output is estimated to be above average in Chad, Guinea-Bissau, Mali and Niger but below average in Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, The Gambia, Mauritania and Senegal.

The food supply situation is expected to be tighter in 1998 than in 1997 in several countries where harvests were below average. In Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Senegal and Mauritania, reduced cereal production substantially increased import requirements including food aid. In Cape Verde, where production is always below needs and substantial commercial cereal imports and/or food aid are required, the food supply situation is not anticipated to be critical despite the very reduced 1997 harvest. In some areas of Chad and Niger, sections of the population will be at risk of food shortages following poor harvests and will require some assistance. Localized deficits can be covered by transfers from surplus areas or through triangular transactions, notably from Mali or from coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea. For ongoing food aid programmes in Chad, Mali and Niger, donors are urged to undertake local purchases of coarse grains to the maximum extent possible.

The aggregate cereal import requirement of the sub-region in the 1997/98 marketing year is estimated at 5.45 million tonnes. Anticipated commercial imports are estimated at 4.82 million tonnes and the food aid requirement at 0.6 million tonnes mainly in wheat and rice. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late February 1998 amount to around 300 000 tonnes, of which 101 000 tonnes have been delivered so far. No imported food aid in coarse grains is necessary in the Sahel for Chad, Guinea-Bissau and Mali. Local purchases are strongly recommended to cover ongoing or foreseen food aid programmes or for the replenishment of the national security stock where cereals have been borrowed from such stocks for distribution or sales in food-deficit areas.

In central Africa, average to above-average harvests were gathered in 1997 in most countries. Aggregate output of cereals is above average in Central African Republic and anticipated to be about average in Cameroon despite African Migratory Locust infestations which caused damage locally to millet and sorghum crops in the north in late 1997. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, maize is growing satisfactorily in the centre and the south. Civil strife disrupted agricultural activities in the east where production of first season beans has been seriously affected by recent population displacements and insecurity. Prospects for the second season are poor due to lack of seeds. In the Republic of Congo, the displaced population of Brazzaville has largely returned but large sections face food access difficulties due to loss of jobs, high food prices and a seriously disrupted food marketing system.

For the 1997/98 or 1998 marketing year, the cereal import requirement for the seven countries of the sub- region is estimated at 751 000 tonnes. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late February amount to 19 000 tonnes, of which 3 000 tonnes have been delivered.
 

Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.